The Effect of Information-Driven Resource Allocation on the Propagation of Epidemic with Incubation Period

In the pandemic of COVID-19, there are exposed individuals who are infected but lack distinct clinical symptoms. In addition, the diffusion of related information drives aware individuals to spontaneously seek resources for protection. The special spreading characteristic and coevolution of different processes may induce unexpected spreading phenomena. Thus we construct a three-layered network framework to explore how information-driven resource allocation affects SEIS (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Susceptible) epidemic spreading. The analyses utilizing microscopic Markov chain approach reveal that the epidemic threshold depends on the topology structure of epidemic network, and the processes of information diffusion and resource allocation. Conducting extensive Monte Carlo simulations, we find some crucial phenomena in the coevolution of information diffusion, resource allocation and epidemic spreading. Firstly, when E-state (exposed state, without symptoms) individuals are infectious, long incubation period results in more E-state individuals than I-state (infected state, with obvious symptoms) individuals. Besides, when E-state individuals have strong or weak infectious capacity, increasing incubation period have an opposite effect on epidemic propagation. Secondly, the short incubation period induces the first-order phase transition. But enhancing the efficacy of resources would convert the phase transition to a second-order type. Finally, comparing the coevolution in networks with different topologies, we find setting the epidemic layer as scale-free network can inhibit the spreading of the epidemic.

The Impact of the Global and Local Awareness Diffusion on Epidemic Transmission Considering the Heterogeneity of Individual Influences

In this paper, we propose a coupled awareness - epidemic spreading model considering the heterogeneity of individual influences, which aims to explore the interaction between awareness diffusion and epidemic transmission. The considered heterogeneity of individual influences are threefold: the heterogeneity of individual influences in the information layer, the heterogeneity of individual influences in the epidemic layer and the heterogeneity of individual behavioral responses to epidemics. In addition, the individuals' receptive preference for information and the impacts of individuals' perceived local awareness ratio and individuals' perceived epidemic severity on self-protective behavior are included. The epidemic threshold is theoretically established according to the microscopic Markov chain approach and mean-field approach. Results indicate that the critical local and global awareness ratios have two-stage effects on the epidemic threshold. Besides, either the heterogeneity of individual influences in the information layer or the strength of individuals' responses to epidemics can influence the epidemic threshold with a nonlinear way. However, the heterogeneity of individual influences in the epidemic layer has few effect on the epidemic threshold, but can affects the magnitude of the final infected density.

How to plug out of the networks in jeopardy of ASF, Covid-19, social media or markets toxicity

Aim: In our research, we examine universal properties of the global network whose structure represents a real-world network that might be later extended to social media, commodity market or countries under the infl uence of diseases like Covid-19 or ASF.Methods: We propose quasi-epidemiological agent-based model of virus spread on a network. Firstly, we consider countries represented by subnetworks that have a scale-free structure achieved by the preferential attachment construction with a node hierarchy and binary edges. The global network of countries is a complete, directed, weighted network of thesesubnetworks connected by their capitals and divided into cultural and geographical proximity. Viruses with a defi ned strength or aggressiveness occur independently at one of the nodes of a selected subnetwork and correspond to a piece of products or messages or diseases.Results and conclusion: We analyse dynamics set by varying parameter values and observe a variety of phenomena including local and global pandemics and the existence of an epidemic threshold in the subnetworks. These phenomena have been also shown fromindividual users points of view because the node removal from the network might have impact on its nearest neighbours differently. The selective participation in global network is proposed here to avoid side effects when the global network has been fully connected and no longer divided into clusters.

Civilian-military malaria outbreak response in Thailand: an example of multi-stakeholder engagement for malaria elimination

Background In April 2017, the Thai Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) was alerted to a potential malaria outbreak among civilians and military personnel in Sisaket Province, a highly forested area bordering Cambodia. The objective of this study was to present findings from the joint civilian-military outbreak response. Methods A mixed-methods approach was used to assess risk factors among cases reported during the 2017 Sisaket malaria outbreak. Routine malaria surveillance data from January 2013 to March 2018 obtained from public and military medical reporting systems and key informant interviews (KIIs) (n = 72) were used to develop hypotheses about potential factors contributing to the outbreak. Joint civilian-military response activities included entomological surveys, mass screen and treat (MSAT) and vector control campaigns, and scale-up of the “1–3–7” reactive case detection approach among civilians alongside a pilot “1–3–7” study conducted by the Royal Thai Army (RTA). Results Between May–July 2017, the monthly number of MoPH-reported cases surpassed the epidemic threshold. Outbreak cases detected through the MoPH mainly consisted of Thai males (87%), working as rubber tappers (62%) or military/border police (15%), and Plasmodium vivax infections (73%). Compared to cases from the previous year (May–July 2016), outbreak cases were more likely to be rubber tappers (OR = 14.89 [95% CI: 5.79–38.29]; p < 0.001) and infected with P. vivax (OR=2.32 [1.27–4.22]; p = 0.006). Themes from KIIs were congruent with findings from routine surveillance data. Though limited risk factor information was available from military cases, findings from RTA’s “1–3–7” study indicated transmission was likely occurring outside military bases. Data from entomological surveys and MSAT campaigns support this hypothesis, as vectors were mostly exophagic and parasite prevalence from MSAT campaigns was very low (range: 0-0.7% by PCR/microscopy). Conclusions In 2017, an outbreak of mainly P. vivax occurred in Sisaket Province, affecting mainly military and rubber tappers. Vector control use was limited to the home/military barracks, indicating that additional interventions were needed during high-risk forest travel periods. Importantly, this outbreak catalyzed joint civilian-military collaborations and integration of the RTA into the national malaria elimination strategy (NMES). The Sisaket outbreak response serves as an example of how civilian and military public health systems can collaborate to advance national malaria elimination goals in Southeast Asia and beyond.

The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Mental Health of Health Care Workers (Literature Review)

The COVID-19 pandemic is having a serious psychological impact on healthcare workers. There is an operational restructuring of medical institutions, the working conditions practically correspond to an emergency situation. Every day, medical workers receive a huge amount of new information in the form of orders, guidelines. This creates an additional load in the form of continuous "information noise". The problem of emotional burnout of doctors was acute even before the COVID-19 pandemic. According to numerous studies in different countries, almost half of doctors have high rates of emotional burnout, which is two times higher than those of the population employed in other areas of professional activity. The aim of the study is to review the theoretical and methodological foundations of the formation and development of emotional burnout in medical personnel during an increased epidemic threshold for a new coronavirus infection. The paper provides an analysis of literary sources devoted to the problem of burnout syndrome in medical workers presented in the Scientific electronic library eLibrary, as well as in the English-language textual database of medical and biological publications PubMed. The COVID-19 pandemic is associated with many reasons that can adversely affect the formation and development of emotional burnout in medical personnel during an increased epidemic threshold for a new coronavirus infection. The provoking factors of the burnout syndrome (professional burnout) are the organizational factor (high workload, lack and shortage of PPE, insufficient (at the first stage) accumulated knowledge about the new coronavirus infection COVID-19); feeling of safety, threat and risk of infection; social isolation.

Diagonal Degree Correlations vs. Epidemic Threshold in Scale-Free Networks

We prove that the presence of a diagonal assortative degree correlation, even if small, has the effect of dramatically lowering the epidemic threshold of large scale-free networks. The correlation matrix considered is P h | k = 1 − r P h k U + r δ h k , where P U is uncorrelated and r (the Newman assortativity coefficient) can be very small. The effect is uniform in the scale exponent γ if the network size is measured by the largest degree n . We also prove that it is possible to construct, via the Porto–Weber method, correlation matrices which have the same k n n as the P h | k above, but very different elements and spectra, and thus lead to different epidemic diffusion and threshold. Moreover, we study a subset of the admissible transformations of the form P h | k ⟶ P h | k + Φ h , k with Φ h , k depending on a parameter which leaves k n n invariant. Such transformations affect in general the epidemic threshold. We find, however, that this does not happen when they act between networks with constant k n n , i.e., networks in which the average neighbor degree is independent from the degree itself (a wider class than that of strictly uncorrelated networks).

COVID-19: Epidemiology and Preventive Measures in Jiangsu Province, China

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological features of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Jiangsu Province after starting level 1 response to major public health emergencies and assess the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control measures took by the government. Methods: Individual information on all novel coronavirus pneumonia confirmed cases from January 10, 2020 to March 18th in Jiangsu was collected from the official website of Health Commission of Jiangsu province and its cities, Hubei Health Commission and the Chinese Health Commission. The trends in demographic and epidemiological characteristics of confirmed cases were estimated and the real time reproduction number (Rt) were calculated. Results: 631 COVID-19 cases were diagnosed in Jiangsu Province, covering 13 districts in Jiangsu. The confirmed cases consisted of imported cases (30.27%) and local transmitted cases (69.73%). 64.15% (238/371) local transmitted cases had reported a history of exposure to COVID-19 cases or patients with acute respiratory infection. Close contact with COVID-19 infectors in families, parties or some public places is the main transmission route for local transmission cases. The epidemic peak occurred from January 30 to February 4, then began to decline. The ratio of male to female cases was 1.22 to 1, and most patients were in the group of 30-70 years old, 49 patients (7.8%) with mild symptom and 572 patients (90.6%) with common type accounted for the majority. As of March 18, the cities with higher cumulative confirmed cases were Nanjing (93 cases, 15%), Suzhou (87 cases, 14%) and Xuzhou (79 cases, 12%). The Rt reached a peak of 4.05 (95%CI 2.27-6.34) on January 20, then began to decline. Rt was below the epidemic threshold (Rt<1) after January 31 and maintained a continuing downward trend. Conclusion: The epidemic preventive and control measures have contributed to interrupt local transmission of COVID-19 in Jiangsu Province, and the epidemic in Jiangsu Province was well under control in less than a month.