Lahar risk assessment from source identification to potential impact analysis: the case of Vulcano Island, Italy

Lahars are rapid flows composed of water and volcaniclastic sediments, which have the potential to impact residential buildings and critical infrastructure as well as to disrupt critical services, especially in the absence of hazard-based land-use planning. Their destructive power is mostly associated with their velocity (related to internal flow properties and topographic interactions) and to their ability to bury buildings and structures (due to deposit thickness). The distance reached by lahars depends on their volume, on sediments/water ratio, as well as on the geometrical properties of the topography where they propagate. Here we present the assessment of risk associated with lahar using Vulcano island (Italy) as a case study. First, we estimated an initial lahar source volume considering the remobilisation by intense rain events of the tephra fallout on the slopes of the La Fossa cone (the active system on the island), where the tephra fallout is associated with the most likely scenario (e.g. long-lasting Vulcanian cycle). Second, we modelled and identified the potential syn-eruptive lahar impact areas on the northern sector of Vulcano, where residential and touristic facilities are located. We tested a range of parameters (e.g., entrainment capability, consolidation of tephra fallout deposit, friction angle) that can influence lahar propagation output both in terms of intensity of the event and extent of the inundation area. Finally, exposure and vulnerability surveys were carried out in order to compile exposure and risk maps for lahar-flow front velocity (semi-quantitative indicator-based risk assessment) and final lahar-deposit thickness (qualitative exposure-based risk assessment). Main outcomes show that the syn-eruptive lahar scenario with medium entrainment capability produces the highest impact associated with building burial by the final lahar deposit. Nonetheless, the syn-eruptive lahar scenario with low entrainment capacity is associated with higher runout and results in the highest impact associated with lahar-flow velocities. Based on our simulations, two critical infrastructures (telecommunication and power plant), as well as the main road crossing the island are exposed to potential lahar impacts (either due to lahar-flow velocity or lahar-deposit thickness or both). These results show that a risk-based spatial planning of the island could represent a valuable strategy to reduce the volcanic risk in the long term.

Volcanic Gas Hazard Assessment in the Baia di Levante Area (Vulcano Island, Italy) Inferred by Geochemical Investigation of Passive Fluid Degassing

In a volcanic area, the composition of air is influenced by the interaction between fluids generated from many different environments (magmatic, hydrothermal, meteoric, and marine). Any physical and chemical variation in one of these subsystems is able to modify the outgassing dynamic. The increase of natural gas hazard, related to the presence of unhealthy components in air, may depend on temporary changes both in the pressure and chemical gradients that generate transient fluxes of gases and can have many different causes. Sometimes, the content of unhealthy gases approaches unexpected limits, without clear warning. In this case, an altered composition of the air can be only revealed after accurate sampling procedures and laboratory analysis. The investigations presented here are a starting point to response to the demand for a new monitoring program in the touristic area of Baia di Levante at Vulcano Island (Aeolian archipelago, Italy). Three multiparametric geochemical surveys were carried in the touristic area of Baia di Levante at Vulcano Island (Aeolian archipelago, Italy) in 2011, 2014, and 2015. Carbon dioxide (CO2) and hydrogen sulfide (H2S) are the main undesired components, usually present at the local scale. Anomalous CO2 and H2S outputs from soil and submarine bubbling vents were identified; the thermal anomaly of the ground was mapped; atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and H2S were measured in the air 30 cm above the ground surface. Atmospheric concentrations above the suggested limits for the wellbeing of human health were retrieved in open areas where tourists stay and where CO2 can accumulate under absence of wind.

Assessing the effectiveness and the economic impact of evacuation: the case of Vulcano Island, Italy

Evacuation planning and management represents a key aspect of volcanic crises because it can increase people protection as well as minimize the potential impact on the economy, properties, and infrastructure of the affected area. Assessment of evacuation scenarios that consider human and economic impact is best done in a pre-disaster context as it helps authorities develop evacuation plans and make informed decisions outside the highly stressful time period that characterizes crises. We present an agent-based simulation tool that assesses the effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios using Vulcano island (Italy) as a case study. Simulation results show that the overall time needed to evacuate people should be analysed together with the percentage of people evacuated as a function of time and that a simultaneous evacuation on Vulcano is more efficient than a staged evacuation. We also present a model to assess the economic impact of evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and starting period that reveals that an evacuation of Vulcano would cause significant economic impact to the tourism industry if lasting more than 3 months (in case it was initiated at the beginning of the visitor season) to 1 year (in case it was initiated at the end of the visitor season).

Influence of permeability on the hydrothermal system at Vulcano Island (Italy): inferences from numerical simulations

Volcano-hydrothermal systems are governed by complex interactions between fluid transport, and geochemical and mechanical processes. Evidence of this close interplay has been testified by distinct spatial and temporal correlations in geochemical and geophysical observations at Vulcano Island (Italy). To understand the interaction between fluid circulation and the geochemical and geophysical manifestations, we perform a parametric study to explore different scenarios by implementing a hydro-geophysical model based on the equations for heat and mass transfer in a porous medium and thermo-poroelastic theory. Numerical simulations allow us to define the controlling role of permeability distribution on the different modeled parameters as well as on the geophysical observables. Changes in the permeability within the highly fractured crater area could be responsible for the fluctuations in gas emission and temperature recorded during the crisis periods, which are accompanied by shallow volcano-seismicity in the absence of significant deformation and gravity variations. Despite the general medium permeability of the volcanic edifice, the presence of more highly permeable pathways, which allow the gas to rapidly escape, as testified by the presence of a well-developed fumarolic field, prevents the pressure buildup at shallow depths. Graphic abstract

Ferro-fluoro-edenite, a new amphibole endmember from Vulcano Island (Sicily, Italy)

ABSTRACT Ferro-fluoro-edenite, ideally NaCa2Fe2+5(Si7Al)O22F2, was found as prismatic crystals up to 1.00 mm inside cavities in ejecta of the 1873 eruption at La Fossa crater, Vulcano Island, Aeolian Archipelago, Sicily, Italy. It is associated with quartz, magnetite, and vonsenite. Crystals are dark brown to black, transparent or semitransparent with vitreous luster, and non fluorescent. The Mohs hardness is 5–6. Cleavage is fair on {110} and fracture is uneven. Density (calc.) is 3.358 g cm–3 using the empirical formula and single-crystal cell data. The mineral is biaxial negative, α = 1.629(2), β = 1.659(2), γ = 1.667(2), 2V (calc.) = –53.8°, Y = b. Dispersion is weak to very weak, r < v, pleochroism not visible. Ferro-fluoro-edenite is monoclinic, space group C2/m, a = 9.9132(10), b = 18.1736(19), c = 5.2943(6) Å, β = 104.85(1)°, V = 922.0(2) Å3, Z = 2. The strongest X-ray diffraction peaks in the powder pattern are [d(I, hkl)]: 8.54(100, 1 1 0), 4.506(16, 0 4 0), 3.154(52, 3 1 0), 2.833(43, 3 3 0), 2.057(14, 2 0 2), 1.910(12, 5 1 0), 1.662(15, 4 6 1). The FTIR spectrum shows a broad band at about 950 cm–1 and no bands in the OH stretching region. The structure refinement led to a final R = 0.0210 for 1444 observed reflections with I > 2σ(I) and allowed cation site assignment and ordering. Microprobe analysis gave the following empirical formula calculated on the basis of 24 (O + F + Cl) apfu: (Na0.69K0.23□0.08)(Ca1.69Mg0.16Mn0.10Na0.05)Σ2(Fe2+2.86Mg2.04Ti0.10)Σ5(Si6.93Al1.05Ti0.02)Σ8O22(F1.89Cl0.09OH0.02)Σ2.

Status of the largest extant population of the critically endangered Aeolian lizard Podarcis raffonei (Capo Grosso, Vulcano island)

The Aeolian wall lizard Podarcis raffonei is an island endemic that survives only on three tiny islets, and on the Capo Grosso peninsula of the Vulcano island, thus is among the European vertebrates with the smallest range and one of the most threatened by extinction. This species is declining due to competition and hybridization with the non-native lizard Podarcis siculus, but a regular monitoring program is lacking. Here we assessed the size and status of the Capo Grosso population of P. raffonei on Vulcano. In September 2015 we captured 30 individuals showing the typical brown phenotype of P. raffonei, while one single male showed a green phenotype, apparently intermediate between P. raffonei and the non-native Podarcis siculus. In May 2017, only 47% of 131 individuals showed the typical brown phenotype (P. raffonei-like) and 53% showed the green phenotype (P. siculus-like). Based on N-mixture models and removal sampling the estimated size of the Capo Grosso population was of 800–1300 individuals in 2017, being similar to 2015; available data suggest that the total range of the species could be as small as 2 ha. The frequency of individuals with the typical P. raffonei phenotype dramatically dropped between two samplings with a parallel increase of individuals displaying the green phenotype. Observation on outdoor captive-bred individuals demonstrates plasticity for colouration in P. raffonei individuals from Capo Grosso, with several individuals showing the typical brown pattern in September 2017 and a green pattern in March 2021. Non-exclusive hypotheses, including hybridization with P. siculus and plasticity in colour pattern of P. raffonei, are discussed to explain the phenotypic shifts of the P. raffonei population of Capo Grosso. While genomic evidence is required to reach conclusions and investigate eventual hybridization, it is urgent to undertake a programme for the monitoring and management of this lizard.

Detection and monitoring of hydrothermal alteration by Principal Component Analysis applied on UAS derived optical data, Vulcano Island - Italy

<p>Modern UAS (unmanned aircraft system), light weight sensor systems and new processing routines allow us to gather optical data of volcanoes at a high resolution. However, due to the typically poor colorization, our ability to investigate and interpret such data is limited. Further, the information stored in the red, green and blue channel (RGB) is correlated. This makes any analysis a 3 dimensional task. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) helps us to overcome these problems by decorrelating the original band information and generating a variance representation of the original data. Therefore PCA is a suitable tool to detect optical anomalies, as might be caused by volcanic degassing and associated processes.</p><p>Applied in a case study at La Fossa Cone (Vulcano Island - Italy), the PCA showed a high efficiency for the detection and pixel based extraction of areas subject to hydrothermal alteration and sulfur deposition. We observed a broad alteration zone surrounding the active fumarole field, but also heterogeneities within, indicating a segmentation. Systematic variations in color and density distribution of sulfur deposits have implications for structural controls on the degassing system.</p><p>Combining the efficiency of PCA with the high resolution of UAS derived data, this methodology has a high potential to be employed in the spatio-temporal monitoring of volcanic hydrothermal systems and processes at surface.</p><p> </p>