severe uncertainty
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2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Malvina Ongaro

The Covid-19 pandemic has shaken the world. It has presented us with a series of new challenges, but the policy response may be difficult due to the severe uncertainty of our circumstances. While pressure to take timely action may push towards less inclusive decision procedures, in this paper I argue that precisely our current uncertainty provides reasons to include stakeholders in collective decision-making. Decision-making during the pandemic faces uncertainty that goes beyond the standard, probabilistic one of Bayesian decision theory. Agents may be uncertain not just about factual properties of the world, but also about how to model their decision problems and about the values of the possible consequences of their options. As different stakeholders may have irreconcilable disagreement about how to resolve these uncertainties, decision-making procedures should take everybody’s perspectives into account. Moreover, those communities that are hit harder by the pandemic are also those that are typically excluded from knowledge production. Thus, in the face of Covid-19 uncertainty, both democratic and epistemic considerations highlight the importance of stakeholders’ inclusion in policy decision-making.


Author(s):  
Katie Peterson ◽  
Megan D. Barnes ◽  
Cailan Jeynes‐Smith ◽  
Saul Cowen ◽  
Lesley Gibson ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 160 ◽  
pp. 1174-1184
Author(s):  
Henna Bains ◽  
Ander Madariaga ◽  
Matthias C.M. Troffaes ◽  
Behzad Kazemtabrizi

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 248-258
Author(s):  
Vladimir V. Shmat

The article notes the need for the transition of the resource sector of the Russian economy to an innovative development path and shows the potential for this. Some results of constructing a scenario forecast of the Russian economy development using the expert-statistical Bayesian method are presented. The peculiarity of the method: it is based on expert estimates and allows you to make forecasts in conditions of severe uncertainty. A predictive assessment of the resource sector impact on innovation in Russia in the period until 2030-2035 was made in the framework of the study. According to experts, the existing potential will not be fully utilized. Insufficient participation of the resource sector in the national innovation process is projected; attraction to import is the most likely. This reflects the general trend of the forecasted scientific and technological development of a country with a “sluggish” innovation market: insufficient supply, insufficient demand and the weak mechanism of the relationship between the first and second.


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