The impact of large-scale circulation on daily fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in major populated regions of China during winter

<p>With rapid economic growth and urbanization, air pollution episodes with high levels of particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) have become common in China. While emissions of pollutant precursors are important, meteorology also plays a major role in pollution episodes, especially in winter. We examine the influence of the dominant large-scale circulation and the key regional meteorological features on PM<sub>2.5</sub> over three major regions of China: Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH), the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and the Pearl River Delta (PRD). The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is primarily studied, including some of its main large-scale components such as the East Asian trough and the Siberian high, as it influences PM<sub>2.5 </sub>differently in different parts of China. In the BTH region, the shallow East Asian trough curbs the invasion of northerly cold and dry air from the Siberian high which induces high relative humidity and heavy pollution, possibly via relative humidity-promoted aerosol formation and growth. A weak southerly wind in Eastern and Southern China associated with a weakened Siberian high suppresses horizontal dispersion, contributing to pollution accumulation over YRD. In addition, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the dominant mode of global ocean-atmosphere interaction has a substantial modulation on precipitation over southern China. In the PRD, weak southerly winds and precipitation deficits over southern China are conducive to atmospheric pollution possibly via reduced wet deposition. Furthermore, we construct new circulation-based indices based on the dominant large-scale circulation: a 500 hPa geopotential height-based index for BTH, a sea level pressure-based index for YRD and an 850 hPa meridional wind-based index for PRD. These three indices can effectively distinguish different levels of pollution over BTH, YRD and PRD, respectively. We also show how additional regional meteorological variables can improve the prediction of regional PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations for these three regions. These results are beneficial to understanding and forecasting the occurrence of severely polluted days for BTH, YRD and PRD from a large-scale perspective.</p>

Impact of Sea Ice Reduction in the Barents and Kara Seas on the Variation of the East Asian Trough in Late Winter

Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) dataset and the Specified Chemistry Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM-SC), the impacts of sea ice reduction in the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) on the East Asian trough (EAT) in late winter are investigated. Results from both reanalysis data and simulations show that the BKS sea ice reduction leads to a deepened EAT in late winter, especially in February, while the EAT axis tilt is not sensitive to the BKS sea ice reduction. Further analysis shows that the BKS sea ice reduction influences the EAT through the tropospheric and stratospheric pathways. For the tropospheric pathway, the results from a linearized barotropic model and Rossby wave ray tracing model reveal that long Rossby wave trains stimulated by the BKS sea ice loss propagate downstream to the North Pacific, strengthening the EAT. For the stratospheric pathway, the upward planetary waves enhanced by the BKS sea ice reduction shift the subpolar westerlies near the tropopause southward. With the critical lines displaced equatorward, the poleward transient eddies break at lower latitudes, shifting the eddy momentum deposit throughout the troposphere equatorward. Tropospheric westerlies maintained by eddy momentum deposit are also shifted southward, inducing the cyclonic anomalies over the North Pacific and deepening the EAT in late winter. Nudging experiments show that the tropospheric pathway only contributes to around 29.7% of the deepening of the EAT in February induced by the BKS sea ice loss, while the remaining 70.3% is caused by stratosphere–troposphere coupling.

Impact of atmospheric quasi-biweekly oscillation on the persistent heavy PM2.5 pollution over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China during winter

<p>In recent years, persistent heavy air pollution (PHP) events occurred frequently over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region in China, which posed a great threat to human health. The pollution was characterized by fine particulate matter smaller than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>). This study investigates the evolution of PHP over the BTH region and its relation to the atmospheric quasi-biweekly oscillation in winters of 2013–2017. A PHP event is defined as three or more consecutive days with daily mean PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration exceeding 150 μg m<sup>-3</sup>. We observed a significant periodicity of 10–16 days of the PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration, which notably contributes to the occurrence of PHP. According to the quasi-biweekly variation of PM<sub>2.5</sub>, the life cycle of PHP events are divided into eight phases. The phase composites of circulation anomalies show that the atmospheric quasi-biweekly oscillation provides favorable conditions for the persistence of wintertime PM<sub>2.5</sub> pollution. During the PHP events, the quasi-biweekly southerly anomalies prevail persistently over eastern China. The East Asian winter monsoon is weakened and more moisture is transported to the BTH region continuously. The anomalous warming in the lower troposphere indicates a stable stratification on the quasi-biweekly time scale. In the mid-troposphere, the oscillation of East Asian trough’s intensity is significantly correlated with the PHP events. Further lead-lag correlation analysis suggested that the quasi-biweekly oscillation of East Asian trough can be traced back to a precursor signal over northwestern Eurasia about 11 days earlier, through a southeastward wave train propagation. Therefore, the meteorological conditions conducive to PHP over the BTH region can be predicted on the quasi-biweekly time scale.</p>

Tropical air intrusions over the eastern Mediterranean and Mesopotamia: An atmospheric river case study and role of the East Asian trough

<p>The high-elevation eastern Anatolian plateau, located in eastern Mediterranean basin, is cold and snowy in winter, and functions as a water tower in providing water to Mesopotamia through Euphrates and Tigris rivers. These rivers are snow-fed, as much of their discharges occurs in spring when the seasonal warming melts the snowpack. The anomalous warming over the eastern Anatolia in early March 2004 resulted in unprecedented snowmelt runoff in the Euphrates and Tigris basin together with the accompanying rainfall. This study explores an atmospheric river (AR) leading to the extreme hydrometeorological events in the headwaters regions of the Euphrates and Tigris basins in early March 2004, and its possible linkage to the strength of the East Asian trough (EAT). In the analyses, we used reanalysis data, gridded products of surface temperature and snow cover, river discharge data and satellite imagery. We employed an intensity index for the EAT and a trough displacement index for the Mediterranean trough (MedT) to explore the relationship between the strength of the EAT and the displacement of the MedT at pentad resolution. We show that there is a strong relationship between the strength of the EAT and the zonal displacements of the Mediterranean upper layer trough on the 13th pentad of the year, which corresponds to early days of March. In 2004, which appears to be an extreme year for this phenomenon, the MedT is positioned and deepened in the central Mediterranean (about10−15◦E), and extended towards central Africa during the early days of March. This synoptic pattern provided favorable conditions for the development of AR with a southwest-northeast orientation, carrying warm tropical African air towards the eastern Mediterranean and Anatolian highlands resulting in rapid melting of the snowpack as well as severe precipitation, and thus, flooding events, in the eastern Anatolia. A key finding in our analysis is that the strengthening of the EAT was instrumental to the increased amplitude of the ridge-trough system over the Euro-Mediterranean region in the early days of 2004 late winter. A further analysis is ongoing to provide a basis to analyze past individual AR events over the region, especially those associated with extreme precipitation events and snowmelt.</p>