African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement and the Mega-Regional Trade Agreements (MRTAs): what are the underlying challenges and prospects for Africa-South-South trade?

This study examines the possible challenges and prospects of the recent signing of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement on South-South trade. The recent ratification of the agreement by the African Union (AU) Heads of Government and the establishment of the mega-regional trade agreements (MRTAs) by the major global trading economies are the biggest since the establishment of the WTO. One of these regional and continental agreements' principal objectives is to further strengthen trade terms and balance of trade statistics between member nations. Whereas almost all the regional and continental blocs have to a large extent, achieved the purpose of their trade agreements, Africa stands out as the only region whose intra-trade value still constitutes less than 15% of global trade share. Many reasons have been adduced to be responsible for the weak trade performance, one of which is weak regional integration. This study, therefore, concludes that for Africa to achieve significant improvement in global trade, the region needs to encourage regional trade, which will act as a catalyst for transforming the domestic economies and lay a robust foundation for healthy regional competition and integration

THE GROUNDS OF PROTECTIONISM IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN THE 21st CENTURY IN THE CONTEXT OF MULTILATERAL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS

As the importance of tariffs diminishes, to avoid underestimation, analysis of the dynamics of protectionism implies the use of more complex data. Hence, this research explores the Global Trade Alert database, which covers a wide range of measures used by countries within trade policy. Once the dynamics of protectionism in trade is presented, the analysis of its grounds might be undertaken to answer the question: what are the reasons for high levels of protectionist tendencies in the 21 st century? Is this a post-crisis repercussion only? Or is the failure of multilateral negotiations under the auspices of the WTO which, in turn, makes space for increased levels of protectionism? While many analyses highlight the indisputable impact of the crisis on the growing protectionist tendencies in the 21 st century, it has been over ten years since the crisis, which requires a search for alternate or additional premises. The hypothesis was therefore adopted that the failure of multilateral negotiations within the Doha Round may make space for increased protectionism in the 21 st century. Taking into consideration all of the negative consequences of protectionism, the analysis of its causes has a justification. Successful treatment requires a diagnosis of the sources of the problem; only once these are identified can an appropriate action be undertaken. The main conclusion from the research is that because of the diversification within the WTO, the multilateral liberalization agenda has been limited. Hence, “next generation” issues are addressed elsewhere, like within regional trade agreements, which, as a result, became very popular after 2001. However, RTAs should not be perceived as an alternative to liberalization under the auspices of the WTO, as they are not free from protectionist tendencies.

The Trend of Deep Regional Integration

The last quarter century until around 2016 has witnessed “unprecedented trade integration” (Baier et al. 2019) in the world. There has been a rapid proliferation of regional trade agreements (RTAs). Figure 2.1 shows the evolution of RTAs in the world since the World War II.