A 3D Agent-Based Model of Lung Fibrosis

Understanding the pathophysiology of lung fibrosis is of paramount importance to elaborate targeted and effective therapies. As it onsets, the randomly accumulating extracellular matrix (ECM) breaks the symmetry of the branching lung structure. Interestingly, similar pathways have been reported for both idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and radiation-induced lung fibrosis (RILF). Individuals suffering from the disease, the worldwide incidence of which is growing, have poor prognosis and a short mean survival time. In this context, mathematical and computational models have the potential to shed light on key underlying pathological mechanisms, shorten the time needed for clinical trials, parallelize hypotheses testing, and improve personalized drug development. Agent-based modeling (ABM) has proven to be a reliable and versatile simulation tool, whose features make it a good candidate for recapitulating emergent behaviors in heterogeneous systems, such as those found at multiple scales in the human body. In this paper, we detail the implementation of a 3D agent-based model of lung fibrosis using a novel simulation platform, namely, BioDynaMo, and prove that it can qualitatively and quantitatively reproduce published results. Furthermore, we provide additional insights on late-fibrosis patterns through ECM density distribution histograms. The model recapitulates key intercellular mechanisms, while cell numbers and types are embodied by alveolar segments that act as agents and are spatially arranged by a custom algorithm. Finally, our model may hold potential for future applications in the context of lung disorders, ranging from RILF (by implementing radiation-induced cell damage mechanisms) to COVID-19 and inflammatory diseases (such as asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease).

Updated projections for COVID-19 omicron wave in Florida

In this report, we use a detailed simulation model to assess and project the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida. The model is a data-driven, stochastic, discrete-time, agent based model with an explicit representation of people and places. Using the model, we find that the omicron variant wave in Florida is likely to cause many more infections than occurred during the delta variant wave. Due to testing limitations and often mild symptoms, however, we anticipate that omicron infections will be underreported compared to delta. We project that reported cases of COVID-19 will continue to grow significantly and peak in early January 2022, and that the number of reported COVID-19 deaths due to omicron may be 1/3 of the total caused by the delta wave.

Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions

The English SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been affected by the emergence of new viral variants such as B.1.177, Alpha and Delta, and changing restrictions. We used statistical models and calibration of an stochastic agent-based model Covasim to estimate B.1.177 to be 20% more transmissible than the wild type, Alpha to be 50-80% more transmissible than B.1.177 and Delta to be 65-90% more transmissible than Alpha. We used these estimates in Covasim (calibrated between September 01, 2020 and June 20, 2021), in June 2021, to explore whether planned relaxation of restrictions should proceed or be delayed. We found that due to the high transmissibility of Delta, resurgence in infections driven by the Delta variant would not be prevented, but would be strongly reduced by delaying the relaxation of restrictions by one month and with continued vaccination.