Spatial Analysis for Landscape Changes

Landscape is the backcloth over which environmental and anthropic events occur, and recent increasing trends of natural and anthropic processes, such as urbanization, land-use changes, and extreme climate events, have a strong impact on landscape modification [...]

Marine heatwave challenges solutions to human–wildlife conflict

Despite the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events, little is known about how their impacts flow through social and ecological systems or whether management actions can dampen deleterious effects. We examined how the record 2014–2016 Northeast Pacific marine heatwave influenced trade-offs in managing conflict between conservation goals and human activities using a case study on large whale entanglements in the U.S. west coast's most lucrative fishery (the Dungeness crab fishery). We showed that this extreme climate event diminished the power of multiple management strategies to resolve trade-offs between entanglement risk and fishery revenue, transforming near win–win to clear win–lose outcomes (for whales and fishers, respectively). While some actions were more cost-effective than others, there was no silver-bullet strategy to reduce the severity of these trade-offs. Our study highlights how extreme climate events can exacerbate human–wildlife conflict, and emphasizes the need for innovative management and policy interventions that provide ecologically and socially sustainable solutions in an era of rapid environmental change.

Early Growth Responses of Larix kaempferi (Lamb.) Carr. Seedling to Short-Term Extreme Climate Events in Summer

Extreme climate events such as heat waves, drought, and heavy rainfall are occurring more frequently and are more intense due to ongoing climate change. This study evaluated the early growth performance of one-year-old Larix kaempferi (Lamb.) Carr. seedlings under open-field extreme climate conditions including experimental warming and different precipitation regimes. We recorded the survival rate, root collar diameter, height, biomass, shoot-to-root ratio, and seedling quality index using nine treatments (three temperature levels, i.e., control, warming by 3 °C and by 6 °C, × three precipitation levels, i.e., control, drought, and heavy rainfall) in July and August 2020. The survival rate of seedlings did not differ between treatments, showing high values exceeding 94% across treatments. The measured shoot height was largest under warming by 3 °C and high rainfall, indicating that moderate warming increased seedling height growth in a moist environment. Heavy rainfall decreased stem volume by 21% and 25% under control and warming by 6 °C treatments, respectively. However, drought manipulation using rain-out shelters did not decrease the growth performance. Overall, extreme climate events did not affect the survival rate, biomass, shoot-to-root ratio, and seedling quality index of L. kaempferi. We thus conclude that, regarding growth responses, L. kaempferi seedlings may be resistant to short-term extreme warming and drought events during summer.

Empowering energy flexibility and climate resilience using collective intelligence based demand side management (CI-DSM)

This work investigates the effectiveness of Collective intelligence (CI) in demand side management (DSM) in urban areas to cope with extreme climate events. CI is a form of distributed intelligence that emerges in collaborative problem solving and decision making. It is used in a simulation platform to control the energy performance of buildings in an urban area in Stockholm, through developing CI-DSM and setting certain adaptation measures, including phase shifting in HVAC systems and building appliances. CI-DSM is developed based on a simple communication strategy among buildings, using forward (1) and backward (0) signals, corresponding to applying and disapplying the adaptation measures. The performance of CI-DSM is simulated for three climate scenarios representing typical, extreme cold and extreme warm years in Stockholm. According to the results, CI-DSM increases the autonomy and agility of the system in responding to climate shocks without the need for computationally extensive central decision making systems. CI-DSM helps to gradually and effectively decrease the energy demand and absorb the shock during extreme climate events.

Hurricane Driven Changes in Vegetation Structure and Ecosystem Services in Tropical Urban Yards: a Study Case in San Juan, Puerto Rico

Urban forests are valuable spaces for species conservation, protection of local biodiversity and provision of ecosystem services. However, they are also vulnerable to the impact of extreme climate events like hurricanes. Understanding how urban forests are responding to hurricane disturbances is crucial to improve their design, management, and resilience. Here we analyzed pre-and post-hurricane surveys in 52 residential yards in San Juan to assess urban forests responses after Hurricanes Irma and Maria impacted Puerto Rico in 2017. We used these surveys to compare vegetation structure and composition (including species-specific mortality and damage rates) and to quantify changes in the ecosystem services provided by these yards. We found that hurricane disturbances significantly altered the structure but not the composition of yard vegetation. We detected a 27% reduction and 31% mortality of standing stems, and a significant reduction in plants health. Yard species composition was dominated by non-native species and this trend did not change with hurricane disturbance. Changes in vegetation structure translated into substantial reductions in ecosystem services. Food provision, an important service provided by a large proportion of yards before the hurricane, reported the highest reduction (41.9%) while carbon storage was the service that changed the least (9%). Our combined results emphasize the key role played by residential yards providing ecosystem services in tropical cities and call for further efforts to manage private and public urban forests in ways that may ensure their resilience to mitigate extreme climate events, provide multiple ecosystem services, and promote long-term urban sustainability.

Managed culls mean extinction for a marine mammal population when combined with extreme climate impacts

Human actions led to the worldwide decline of marine mammal populations in the 18th-19th centuries. However, the global uptake in protective legislation during the 20th century has recently allowed many marine mammal populations to recover. This positive trend is particularly true of pinnipeds (e.g., seals and sea lions), whose recovering populations are increasingly in conflict with fisheries. Many fisheries organisations call for managed culls of sea lion populations to reduce competition for target fish species as well as damage to catch and fishing gear through operational interactions. However, despite widespread perceptions that sea lion populations are generally increasing, to-date culls have been considered or implemented without quantitative evidence of their impacts on seal lion population viability. This knowledge gap is particularly concerning given the expected increase in extreme climate conditions, such as extreme El Niño events, which together with culls could push sea lion populations in some parts of the world into the extinction vortex. In this analysis, I develop and parameterise stochastic matrix population models of the South American sea lion (Otaria flavescens) to project the impact of (1) three cull scenarios with different intensity and temporal frequency targeting adult females, (2) extreme El Niño events whose frequency is modelled using a Markovian transition matrix, (3) and the interaction of culls and extreme climate events on population dynamics. I focus on the Chilean population of O. flavescens, where recent increases in sea lion numbers have triggered widespread conflict with small-scale fisheries, and where sea lion populations will increasingly be affected by extreme El Niño conditions. I find that sea lion populations decline below minimum viable population sizes under all scenarios involving culls and extreme climate events. By explicitly considering parameter uncertainty, this approach is a call to action for future research to focus on collecting stage-specific, annual population data to reduce uncertainty regarding marine mammal vital rates.