Abstract
Objective: To find out the risk factors of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma ( ICC ) in patients who underwent biliary surgery for biliary calculi, and to develop a nomogram to better predict the occurrence of ICC.Methods: Data were collected and analyzed retrospectively from 322 patients who underwent biliary tract surgery for biliary calculi in the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University from January 2000 to December 2017.Of these patients, 58 patients had biliary calculi complicated with ICC while the other 294 patients had simple biliary calculi. Both univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to find out the risk factors related to ICC, and a nomogram was further developed based on the results of multivariate analysis.Results: The univariate analysis showed that there were significant differences in age composition (≤ 60 years old, > 60 years old), liver cirrhosis, stone history and previous hepatitis B infection (HBsAg- and HBcAb+) between the two groups. Logistic regression analysis indicated that liver cirrhosis (OR=2.011, 95%CI=1.023-3.952), stone history (OR=1.086, 95%CI=1.051-1.112) and age > 60 (OR=2.045, 95%CI=1.059-3.948) were the risk factors of ICC, while previous hepatitis B infection (HBsAg- and HBcAb+) (OR=0.461, 95%CI=0.215-0.989) was the protective factor. After drawing a nomogram, it was found that the area under the curve was 0.753 (95% CI=0.686-0.818), and the best cutoff value obtained by Youden index was 0.164. Moreover, the calibration curve indicated the best consistency between the predicted probability and the actual probability.Conclusion: We developed a nomogram, which was novel and accurate, to predict the risk of ICC in patients received biliary surgery for biliary calculi. This nomogram is of certain significance for the early detection of ICC.