Machine learning models for prediction of co-occurrence of diabetes and cardiovascular diseases: a retrospective cohort study

Background Diabetic mellitus (DM) and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) cause significant healthcare burden globally and often co-exists. Current approaches often fail to identify many people with co-occurrence of DM and CVD, leading to delay in healthcare seeking, increased complications and morbidity. In this paper, we aimed to develop and evaluate a two-stage machine learning (ML) model to predict the co-occurrence of DM and CVD. Methods We used the diabetes complications screening research initiative (DiScRi) dataset containing >200 variables from >2000 participants. In the first stage, we used two ML models (logistic regression and Evimp functions) implemented in multivariate adaptive regression splines model to infer the significant common risk factors for DM and CVD and applied the correlation matrix to reduce redundancy. In the second stage, we used classification and regression algorithm to develop our model. We evaluated the prediction models using prediction accuracy, sensitivity and specificity as performance metrics. Results Common risk factors for DM and CVD co-occurrence was family history of the diseases, gender, deep breathing heart rate change, lying to standing blood pressure change, HbA1c, HDL and TC\HDL ratio. The predictive model showed that the participants with HbA1c >6.45 and TC\HDL ratio > 5.5 were at risk of developing both diseases (97.9% probability). In contrast, participants with HbA1c >6.45 and TC\HDL ratio ≤ 5.5 were more likely to have only DM (84.5% probability) and those with HbA1c ≤5.45 and HDL >1.45 were likely to be healthy (82.4%. probability). Further, participants with HbA1c ≤5.45 and HDL <1.45 were at risk of only CVD (100% probability). The predictive accuracy of the ML model to detect co-occurrence of DM and CVD is 94.09%, sensitivity 93.5%, and specificity 95.8%. Conclusions Our ML model can significantly predict with high accuracy the co-occurrence of DM and CVD in people attending a screening program. This might help in early detection of patients with DM and CVD who could benefit from preventive treatment and reduce future healthcare burden.

Everyday Lives of Middle-Aged Persons with Multimorbidity: A Mixed Methods Systematic Review

The healthcare burden of patients with multimorbidity may negatively affect their family lives, leisure time and professional activities. This mixed methods systematic review synthesizes studies to assess how multimorbidity affects the everyday lives of middle-aged persons, and identifies skills and resources that may help them overcome that burden. Two independent reviewers screened title/abstracts/full texts in seven databases, extracted data and used the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT) to assess risk of bias (RoB). We synthesized findings from 44 studies (49,519 patients) narratively and, where possible, quantitatively. Over half the studies provided insufficient information to assess representativeness or response bias. Two studies assessed global functioning, 15 examined physical functioning, 18 psychosocial functioning and 28 work functioning. Nineteen studies explored skills and resources that help people cope with multimorbidity. Middle-aged persons with multimorbidity have greater impairment in global, physical and psychosocial functioning, as well as lower employment rates and work productivity, than those without. Certain skills and resources help them cope with their everyday lives. To provide holistic and dynamic health care plans that meet the needs of middle-aged persons, health professionals need greater understanding of the experience of coping with multimorbidity and the associated healthcare burden.

Pyroptosis: Mechanisms and Links with Fibrosis

Fibrosis is responsible for approximately 45% of deaths in the industrialized world and has been a major global healthcare burden. Excessive fibrosis is the primary cause of organ failure. However, there are currently no approved drugs available for the prevention or treatment of fibrosis-related diseases. It has become evident that fibrosis is characterized by inflammation. In a large number of studies of various organs in mice and humans, pyroptosis has been found to play a significant role in fibrosis. Pyroptosis is a form of programmed cell death mediated by the N-terminal fragment of cysteinyl aspartate-specific proteinase (caspase)-1-cleaved gasdermin D (GSDMD, producing GSDMD-N) that gives rise to inflammation via the release of some proinflammatory cytokines, including IL-1β, IL-18 and HMGB1. These cytokines can initiate the activation of fibroblasts. Inflammasomes, an important factor upstream of GSDMD, can activate caspase-1 to trigger the maturation of IL-1β and IL-18. Moreover, the inhibition of inflammasomes, proinflammatory cytokines and GSDMD can prevent the progression of fibrosis. This review summarizes the growing evidence indicating that pyroptosis triggers fibrosis, and highlights potential novel targets for antifibrotic therapies.

Adrenal Insufficiency: Investigating Prevalence and Healthcare Utilization Using Administrative Data

Introduction Adrenal insufficiency (AI) is an uncommon, life-threatening disorder requiring lifelong treatment with steroid therapy and special attention to prevent adrenal crisis. Little is known about the prevalence of AI in Canada or healthcare utilization rates by these patients. Objective We aimed to assess the prevalence and healthcare burden of AI in Alberta, Canada. Methods This study used a population-based, retrospective administrative health data approach to identify patients with a diagnosis of AI over a 5-year period and evaluated emergency and outpatient healthcare utilization rates, steroid dispense records and visit reasons. Results The period prevalence of AI was 839 per million adults. Patients made an average of 2.3 and 17.8 visits per year in the emergency department and outpatient settings, respectively. This was 3-4 times as frequent as the average Albertan and only 5% were coded as visits for AI. The majority of patients were dispensed glucocorticoid medications only. Conclusion The prevalence of AI in Alberta is higher than published data in other locations. The frequency of visits suggests a significant healthcare burden and emphasizes the need for a strong understanding of this condition across all clinical settings. Our most concerning finding is that 94.3% of visits were not labelled with AI, even though many of the top presenting complaints were consistent with adrenal crisis. Several data limitations were discovered that suggest improvements in the standardization of data submission and coding can expand the yield of future studies using this method.

P.075 Incidence of Stroke Associated With Antithrombotic Agent Interruption

Background: Antithrombotic medications are used in the primary and secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. Previous studies have identified that up to 5.2% of ischemic strokes are associated with antithrombotic interruption, leading to significant mortality and healthcare burden. Our study aims to identify the prevalence of ischemic strokes presenting to a regional stroke centre associated with antithrombotic interruption, and to understand common reasons for medication interruption. Methods: A retrospective chart review was performed, which included 193 patients with ischemic stroke presenting to Greater Niagara General Hospital from January 2018-December 2019. Baseline demographics were recorded and patient medical records were reviewed for evidence of antithrombotic interruptions. Results: Table 1. Conclusions: Our cohort identified a significant proportion (8.3%) of ischemic strokes with documented antithrombotic interruption. Most common reasons for interruption were non-adherence and discontinuation due to previous adverse event. The results identify possible areas for improvement within patient education and safe re-initiation of antithrombotics following adverse events.

Changing Admission Patterns in Pediatric Emergency Departments during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy Were Due to Reductions in Inappropriate Accesses

During the initial phase of the national lockdown, we found that there were sharp decreases in admissions to two pediatric emergency departments (EDs) in northern Italy (Cremona and Novara). Here we present a detailed analysis of these admission patterns and types of admissions over a longer timeframe. ED admissions data were anonymously extracted from the departmental management software. Admissions data from 2019 and 2020 were analyzed and compared separately for each ED and combined. There was a 73.2% decrease in total admissions compared with the same period in 2019. With respect to admission diagnoses, there was a significant (p < 0.001) drop in infectious (−51%), respiratory (−25.5%), and nervous systems diseases (−50%) and injuries and poisoning (−17%) but not endocrine, metabolic, neoplastic, circulatory, or musculoskeletal diseases. White codes (patients with minor injuries for whom ED medical care is not required) significantly decreased by 56.3% (p < 0.001). Even if the COVID-19 pandemic represented an enormous healthcare burden in Italy, especially during the first months of the pandemic (late February to May), the workload of pediatric EDs was significantly reduced, especially for unnecessary accesses (white codes).

Post-covid condition in adults and children

Despite the impressive progress in diagnosis and management of acute COVID-19, data regarding the consequences of this infection are just emerging. The World Health Organization has proposed the term post-COVID condition (PCC) to describe the wide range of sequelae of acute COVID-19. With more than 200 million confirmed cases of COVID-19, PCC may develop into a major problem for many years to come for the millions of COVID-19 survivors worldwide. Few studies were conducted in primary care, and very few studies have focused exclusively on children and adolescents.Objective. To review existing data on PCC. Analysis of manuscripts published in peer-reviewed journals and clinical protocols. PCC is characterized by a wide range of systemic, cardio-pulmonary, gastrointestinal, neurological, and psychosocial symptoms.Conclusion. Although PCC prevalence is difficult to estimate due to methodological limitations of the existing studies, there is no doubt that this problem is a significant healthcare burden. There is a need for further observational and interventional studies to establish optimal PCC prevention and management strategies.