Does receiving a cash grant improve individual earnings in a war-torn country? Evidence from a randomized experiment in Afghanistan

Background: In this study, the effect of receiving a non-trivial cash grant and mentorship for business practice on individual earnings in Afghanistan was assessed. Methods: This randomized control trial (RCT) included 2177 individuals (n=2177), with the age range of 18-35 years. The amount of cash grant (500 USD) was approximately equal to the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in the country. By a process of lottery, eligible applicants were equally divided into the group that received the grant (treatment group) and the group that did not (control group). Results: Almost two years after this study, the percentage of increased annual income to the size of this cash grant was approximately 173 % and 69 % for males and females, respectively. This result was much higher than the estimated percentage reported in previous literature assessing the effect of microfinance loans and cash grants in other countries. The treatment group had 7% higher probability of having an officially registered business than the control group. The treatment group also increased labor supply and employed additional workers, compared to the control group. The male treatment group bought more capital equipment (e.g., trike and commercial carts) than the male control group, while the female treatment group bought more domestic animals. Conclusion: A non-trivial cash grant has a strong positive effect on the earnings of the recipient of the cash grant in Afghanistan. If the state of increased income continues for the next few years, the sum of increased income will be more than the sum of the administration cost, the interest cost and the amount of cash grant given. This implies that the project passes the standard criteria to determine the appropriateness of government program. Additionally, we did not find any economically and statistically significant positive effect of mentorship on income.

Current state and prospects of material and technical support of agriculture

The purpose of the article is to analyze the state of material and technical support of agriculture in Ukraine and develop a scientific justification for proposals to improve it. Research methods. Use methods: monographic (analysis of the development and provision of agriculture with fixed assets); statistical (to reflect the situation on the market of technical means for agriculture in quantitative and qualitative indicators through a system of absolute and relative indicators); analysis of series of speakers, structural changes (for analysis and identification of trends in the market of agricultural machinery); comparison (comparison of economic indicators); tabular and graphical (visual display of research results in the form of tables and graphs), abstract-logical (generalization and formulation of the conclusion). Research results. The current state and prospects of development of technical support of agriculture in Ukraine are analyzed. Based on the study of problems with the technical support of agricultural production, especially their active component, scientifically grounded proposals have been developed to improve the material and technical support of agricultural enterprises. Scientific novelty. Proposals have been developed to improve the logistics of agricultural producers by quantitative and qualitative growth of their capital equipment to ensure timely and high-quality implementation of a full range of agricultural work on modern advanced technologies, increase productivity and income of the rural population. Practical significance. Calculations of determination of normative need in fixed assets for production of agricultural products for the period till 2025 are carried out. Proposals on increase of capital equipment of agricultural commodity producers are developed. Tabl.: 3. Figs.: 2. Refs.: 18.

Hayek’s Best Test of a Good Economist

A careful reading of the quotations that Hayek left us upon his death on hundreds of cards explains what is, in his opinion, the ultimate and definitive test of whether or not someone is a true economist. It is curious to draw attention to the fact that Hayek had already referred to this matter in Appendix III to his Pure Theory of Capital, which he wrote in 1941 and which ends with the following words: «More than ever it seems to me to be true that the complete apprehension of the doctrine that ‘de-mand of commodities is not demand for labour’ is ‘the best test of an economist’» (Hayek 1976, p. 439). Here, Hayek wishes to highlight one of the key points of the theory of capital: the real productive structure is very complex and is formed by many stages, in such a way that an increase in the demand for con-sumer commodities will always be detrimental to employment in the stages furthest away from consumption (which is precisely where most of the workers are employed). Or, in other words, the employers can perfectly well earn money, even if their rev-enue (or «aggregate demand») drops, if they reduce their costs by replacing labour by capital equipment, thus indirectly gen-erating a significant demand for employment in the stages of capital goods production furthest away from consumption (Huerta de Soto 1998, pp. 213-313). It is more than illustrative how Hayek, in the select group of quotations on economic theory that he has left us in hundreds of his handwriting cards, wished to refer, once again, to these key ideas of the theory of capital. Effectively, Hayek now tells us that «Investment is more discouraged than stimulated by a high de-mand for consumer goods, and so is employment because in an ad-vancing economy more workers are employed to work for the distant fu-ture than for the present»(emphasis added). And he also says that «In the end is the decrease of final demand at current prices that leads to new investment to reduce costs». Therefore, Hayek con-cludes that «employment is not determined by aggregate demand». In short, for Hayek, the best test for an economist is to understand the implicit fallacy contained in the underconsumption theories and in what is called the shrift paradox or paradox of saving: «It is not consumer’s demand that secures the generation of incomes. It is investment of the excess of incomes over consumer’s expendi-tures which keeps incomes up». A large number of economists are unable to understand these principles because they adopt the macroeconomic aggregate approach that Hayek considers to be a serious error that leads, in the final analysis, to social engineering and socialism («Socialism is based on macroeconomics —a scien-tific error»). The only way of understanding what happens at «macro» level is by using microeconomics: «We can understand the macrosociety only by microeconomics». Furthermore, even the Chicago School monetarists are victims of this error: «Even Milton Friedman is reported to have once said ‘we are all Keynesians now’». The approach based on the model of equilibrium and mac-roeconomics is erroneous because «a science which starts with the conceit that it posses information which it cannot obtain is not a science». The same may be said of Welfare Economics, which, for Hayek, is «the spurious scientific foundation of socialist policies».

Modeling-based UV-C decontamination of N95 masks optimized to avoid undertreatment

As the Coronavirus 2019 pandemic creates worldwide shortages of personal protective equipment, hospitals have increasingly turned to sterilization and re-use protocols, often without significant data supporting the specific methodologies. When using UV-C irradiation, previously shown to be effective for decontaminating hard surfaces, modeling shows the importance of accounting for the porosity and non-uniform curvature of the N95 masks in decontamination procedures. Data shows a standard incident dose of 1 J/cm2 delivered to both front and back surfaces is more than 500x higher than the known kill dose. However, modeling indicates this would undertreat 40% of the mask material due to the curvature, path-length attenuation and scatter. Multidirectional UV-C irradiation employing dose calibrated exposures can adjust for this loss and best decontaminate masks. Such protocols can be rapidly implemented in thousands of hospitals across the world equipped with UV-C irradiation lamps without the need for additional capital equipment purchases.