Popular indicators of the crisis in financial markets

The article provides an overview of the factors that ensure the growth of the US stock market despite the fact that a number of popular indicators signal the opposite. The dynamics of indicators (Total Market Cap) / GDP, (Total Market Cap) / (GDP + Total Assets of Fed) and P/E, Shiller P/E ratios are presented. According to Buffett’s Total Market Cap / GDP indicator, the stock market is now “significantly overvalued” and the Shiller P/E ratio has surpassed the “Great Depression” period. At the same time, an increase in the amount of money in circulation as a result of the implementation of Quantitative easing (QE) programs of the FRS, inflation risk and a decrease in the profitability of investments in alternative assets (government and corporate bonds) are forcing investors to stay in stocks and continue to build up positions despite the increase risks and a decrease in potential profitability in the future. The growth of the US stock market is also stimulated by the buyback programs of companies and the inflow of foreign capital. In 2020, there was a V-shaped recovery in the economy, and an absolute record for the amount of funds raised was set in the IPO market. Thanks to financial incentives, the stock market will continue to grow even despite the pandemic and overvalued assets, but the notorious “black swan” may become the “trigger” for the start of the crisis in the financial markets.

The role of private economy in the socialist-oriented market economy in Vietnam

The author discloses, through the prism of Vietnamese sources, the role of the private sector in the Vietnamese economy, showing that it has changed fundamentally during the 35 years of Đổi Mới implementation; analyzes its place in the structure of the Vietnamese economy and its evolution, as well as its position in comparison with two other sectors, namely the public sector and sector with the participation of foreign capital. The article, based on official Vietnamese sources, reflects the CPV's view of the private sector and the Communist Party's intention to use it in promoting the country's prosperity. At the same time, the author introduces the idea that large Vietnamese private groups are indebted to political protection by the leadership of the country, emphasizes the existence of a cronyism and patronizing approach in relations between them. Thus, the private sector can therefore, contribute to economic development and the creation of economic champions but maybe not to a leveled playing field between sectors and within the private sector. The paper aims at putting forward the fact that the State is actually piloting the private economy. In reality the Vietnamese authorities seem to adapt to it and take advantage of its development.

Determinants of Foreign Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: The Role of Institutional Quality

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to examine the key determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in emerging market economies, with greater emphasis placed on the impact of institutional quality. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study applied a panel data system generalised method of moments (GMM) model using annual data spanning the period 2007 to 2017, in respect of 12 emerging market economies. To measure institutional quality, the study adopted the Worldwide Governance Indicators, and constructed a composite index for institutional quality using the Principal Components Analysis (PCA) method. Findings: The results revealed that FDI in the selected emerging markets was attracted by institutional quality and economic growth. Capital account openness, institutional quality and economic growth were positive determinants of FPI. However, stock market development stood out as the key determinant factor for foreign capital inflows. Implications/Originality/Value: The implications of these findings are that, in their pursuit of foreign capital inflows, these emerging markets should continue to liberalise their economies and develop their financial markets. Importantly, such developments must be coupled with the strengthening of the formal governance institutions. Robust institutions would not only curb institutional weaknesses that deter international capital inflows, but would also insulate emerging markets from unfavourable effects of volatile capital flows.

تأثير رأس المال الاجنبي المودع في القيمة السوقة للشركة دراسة تطبيقية في عينة من الشركات المدرجة في سوق العراق للأوراق المالية للمدة (2012-2020)

The research aims to measure the impact of the capital deposited for non-Iraqi investors and the investor in the shares of companies listed in the Iraqi Stock Exchange on the market value of those companies, as well as studying the impact of the total foreign capital deposited in the sectors listed in the market on the market value of those sectors, and analyzing the value of the capital deposited and the market value of the sample companies. To achieve the research objective, (15) listed companies were selected for the period (2012-2020). The research relied on four main hypotheses, the most important of which is “there is no significant effect of deposited foreign capital on the market value of companies.” The results of the (F) statistical test revealed the presence of the effect of deposited capital for non-Iraqis on the market value of companies.

The impact of foreign capital inflows on poverty in Vietnam: An empirical investigation

This study investigates the impact of foreign capital inflows on poverty in Vietnam, using annual time series data from 1990 to 2018. The study was motivated by the need to establish if burgeoning foreign capital inflows in Vietnam can support the poverty alleviation agenda. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and external debt were used as proxies for foreign capital inflows; and infant mortality rate, Human Development Index (HDI) and household consumption expenditure were used as poverty proxies. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, the study found foreign direct investment to reduce poverty in the short run and long run when household consumption expenditure was used as a poverty measure. However, the study found FDI to worsen poverty in the short run when infant mortality rate and HDI were used as poverty proxies. The study found external debt to have poverty mitigating effect in the short run regardless of the poverty measure used and in the long run only when household consumption expenditure was used as a poverty measure.

Positive And Negative Effects Of Foreign Direct Investment (Fdi) On Post-Communist Economies—The Case Study Of Hungary

Hungary is in many respects a diligent student of transition, one that has successfully gathered the spoils of transition in spite of initial drawbacks. The article argues that Hungary had a facilitated entry into the wormhole of transition because of pre-democratic initiatives to implement competitive fiscal measures—mainly in the years prior to the fall of the Iron Curtain. However, the gradual transition reached an end by 1995 due to debt accumulations that triggered an internal market reformation. The article further suggests that, in the process, the impact of the FDI has been bittersweet during the transition; on the one hand, foreign capital infusions balanced the state budget, corrected the deficit and transferred know-how. On the other hand, the FDI-based transition produced fragmentation and high dependency of the national economy on unstable foreign capital, rendering a component of unsustainability to the Hungarian economy and the risk of entry into a low added-value chain profile.

Research on Environmental Regulation and Green Total Factor Productivity in Yangtze River Delta: From the Perspective of Financial Development

This paper employs the global Malmquist Luenberger (GML) index and the System Generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation method to investigate the influence of both environmental regulation and financial development on green total factor productivity in 41 cities of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in China from 2003–2019. We select the relevant input-output data to measure the green total factor productivity (GTFP) and its decomposition index including undesirable output. The results show that the GTFP and its decomposition index in the YRD have a slow fluctuating upward trend. The YRD mainly depends on improving the level of technological progress and environmental governance to promote the improvement of regional economic green development level. The empirical research results show that there is an inverted U relationship between environmental regulation and GTFP in the YRD, too strict environmental regulation will inhibit the growth of green total factor productivity. By adding control variables, the inflection point of environmental regulation is 0.5034, which is lower than that without control variables. There is a strong interaction and superposition effect between financial development and environmental regulation, which is closely related to the established financial cooperation mechanism, perfect financial system arrangement and cross-regional financial cooperation platform in the YRD. Government intervention should be reduced, the introduction of foreign capital should be controlled appropriately, foreign capital should be guided to green industries, and the use efficiency of foreign capital should be improved. This paper holds that we should pay attention to the strength of environmental regulation, prevent overcorrection, increase the guidance of credit funds, deepen the reform of the financial system, appropriately intervene in the market by the government, strengthen the guidance of foreign capital, and promote the development and transformation of the green economy in the YRD region with the help of several policies.