Returning to the Fight: Addressing the Drivers and Likelihood of Terrorist Disengagement and Re-Engagement

Recent interest in terrorist risk assessment and rehabilitation reveals that the likelihood and risk factors for terrorist disengagement, re-engagement, and recidivism are poorly understood. In this presentation, I review related literature on criminal desistance, disaffiliation from new religious movements, commitment, and turnover in traditional work organizations, role exit, and the investment model to develop a series of theoretical starting points for gauging the likelihood and predictors of risk, which can help inform evaluation efforts. I then highlight key findings from the existing literature on terrorist disengagement and re-engagement/recidivism as well as key differences across samples and the methodological challenges associated with such research—mainly the absence of control groups, relatively small sample sizes, the need for a lengthy time horizon, and inconsistencies in what constitutes re-engagement and recidivism. Then, using data collected on 185 terrorist engagement events for 85 individuals representing over 70 unique terrorist groups, I present my and my colleagues’ findings on the drivers of terrorist disengagement and re-engagement. We find that terrorist disengagement is a lengthy process more commonly driven by “push” rather than “pull” factors, specifically disillusionment with the strategy or actions of the terrorist group, disillusionment with leaders or other members, disillusionment with one’s day-to-day tasks, burnout, difficulty living a clandestine lifestyle, difficulty coping with attacks, and psychological distress. Importantly, “de-radicalization” is only cited as playing a “large role” in just 16% of disengagement events in our sample. I then discuss how one’s role within a terrorist group offers insight into the disengagement process. Our research shows that leaders and violent operatives have a harder time disengaging than those in logistical or support roles because of the sunk costs associated with their involvement and/or the fewer opportunities available to them. We also find that individuals in certain roles are more/less likely to experience certain push/pull factors for disengagement. I conclude by discussing our research on terrorist re-engagement, which shows that in the short term, a deep commitment to the ideology, maintaining ties to individuals still involved in terrorism, and being young increase the likelihood one will return to terrorism.

Time to exit: “revolving door effect” or “Schumpeterian gale of creative destruction”?

Over the past decades, exit has been analyzed at the theoretical and empirical levels. From this rich series of contributions, two basic patterns of exit can be identified: the revolving door and the gale of creative destruction. In the first, the liability of newness plays a major role in the exit process, while in the second the displacement of non-innovators is the driver of exit. We have tested these two patterns of exit on the population of Dutch firms that exited in 2018. We find confirmation that the two patterns characterize different types of industries. In industries in which innovation does not play a major role, the revolving door effect is the typical pattern and exit is concentrated among the adolescent firms. These firms are also small in size. On the contrary, in industries in which innovation plays a role, exit takes place both among infant as well as mature firms. Exiters are not necessarily only the smaller firms. While a highly innovative and uncertain environment can threaten the survival of infant firms, the exit of mature firms is driven by the innovation of young firms, following the gale of creative destruction.

Leaving Gangs in Cape Town: Disengagement as Role Exit

A lack of scholarship on gang leaving in Cape Town, South Africa creates the impression that joining gangs is a death sentence. However, this paper shows that gang members can disengage, even amidst the scarcity of an emerging city. It combines life history research with Ebaugh’s (2013) role exit theory in an analysis of the disengagements of 24 former gang participants. Research considers the various stages of out-of-gang transitions, profiling the drivers and impediments to gang exit. Specific focus is placed on understanding how violence both catalyzes and challenges out-of-gang transition during the differential processes of disengagement. Findings indicate a lengthy and challenging transitional process from the point the first doubts emerge to the time a person successfully becomes an ex-gangster. Progress through different phases of gang exit is generally uneven and unpredictable, and carried out in a context with significant social, economic, and security challenges. Still, those interviewed for this study offer compelling examples to show that disengagement is possible. Their journeys yield insights that can be leveraged to design better informed efforts to reduce gang violence—whether in Cape Town, or in other similarly inequality prone and insecure cities around the world.

Collegiate Recreational Sports Participation as an Adjustment Aid for Former High School Athletes Experiencing Athlete Role Exit

Successful transition to college is an important consideration in student retention and success. Students who highly identify as high school athletes may experience adjustment difficulty when entering college without this role. The current study investigates participation in collegiate recreation programs as part of a positive adjustment process after the transition out of high school athletics. Results indicated that those with high involvement in collegiate recreation programs had greater perceptions of loss related to the cessation of their athlete role, but also experienced greater perceptions of life satisfaction. Feelings of loss following sport role exit were found to interact with recreational sports involvement on the outcome variable of life satisfaction. Specifically, among those with high loss levels, high recreational sports involvement was associated with greater satisfaction. Results have implications regarding the support of collegiate recreation as a contributor to the successful transition to college, particularly for students experiencing difficulty related to an exit from the high school athlete role.

Becoming a Manager: Learning the Importance of Emotional and Social Competence in Managerial Transitions

This article explores how newly promoted managers develop emotional and social competencies to understand their and others’ emotions and then use this understanding for personal growth and in their interactions with others. This study draws on five waves of semistructured interview data collected from 16 newly promoted managers in a large northeastern state agency. The findings suggest that new managers undergo a developmental process— role exit, movement, and role entry—as they make the transition from individual contributors to managers. At each stage of the process, their emotional and social competence (ESC) facilitates learning and moving to the next stage. In addition, throughout the process, new managers develop their ESC and utilize the benefits in their daily decision-making and management behaviors. The findings also suggest that organizational context is an important factor that defines the contents of ESC in the organization. Based on these findings, this study argues that organizations should help new managers understand the emotional aspects of managerial transitions in developing their selection and training practices.

Exploring experiences and emotions sport event volunteers associate with ‘role exit’

Much research in the past decade has assessed what motivates people to volunteer at sport events. Given that volunteering has become integral to the delivery and staging of sporting events, it is important that research not only considers reasons and motivations for volunteering, but how participants cope and manage once their volunteer journey ends. The paper considers the notion of ‘role exit’ and contributes insight based on interviews with participants after an event to understand their feelings and emotions. The significance of this research is understanding exiting emotions and experiences, but because a lot of emphasis is placed on preparing volunteers ahead of an event, the end of the volunteer journey is often abrupt and therefore left underexplored. To ensure that the needs of contemporary volunteers are adequately managed, it is important to consider how individuals are impacted by volunteering and also how they reflect on experiences afterwards. Three themes that emerge from this study include: (1) sadness and loss; (2) transitioning emotions; and (3) coping and coming to terms. A discussion framing the post-event volunteer as ‘the bereaved’ addresses the need to better manage the final stages of the volunteer journey, which represents a challenge given the liminality of sport event volunteering.