Empirics for Marginal Product of Capital

We characterize the marginal product of capital on a cross-section data of 88 economies over 1980–2013. The marginal product of capital is increasing on savings misallocation rate, measuring the fraction of savings unconverted into investment, on productivity growth and on financial openness. One country with a higher marginal product of capital makes more domestic investment, receives more foreign direct investment (FDI) and equities inflows, but accumulates more foreign debts and reserves. Moreover, it also has a higher financial development level.

Estimation of a Production Function for Philippine Retail Stores

The purpose of this paper is the estimation of a production function for retail stores in the Philippines. A generalized Cobb-Douglas production function is utilized for this purpose. Ordinary Least Squares is used in obtaining the coefficients for labor and capital. The results show that the marginal product of labor to be higher than the marginal product of capital and the hypothesis of constant returns to scale is not rejected.

Public Debt and Low Interest Rates

This lecture focuses on the costs of public debt when safe interest rates are low. I develop four main arguments. First, I show that the current US situation, in which safe interest rates are expected to remain below growth rates for a long time, is more the historical norm than the exception. If the future is like the past, this implies that debt rollovers, that is the issuance of debt without a later increase in taxes, may well be feasible. Put bluntly, public debt may have no fiscal cost. Second, even in the absence of fiscal costs, public debt reduces capital accumulation, and may therefore have welfare costs. I show that welfare costs may be smaller than typically assumed. The reason is that the safe rate is the risk-adjusted rate of return to capital. If it is lower than the growth rate, it indicates that the risk-adjusted rate of return to capital is in fact low. The average risky rate however also plays a role. I show how both the average risky rate and the average safe rate determine welfare outcomes. Third, I look at the evidence on the average risky rate, i.e., the average marginal product of capital. While the measured rate of earnings has been and is still quite high, the evidence from asset markets suggests that the marginal product of capital may be lower, with the difference reflecting either mismeasurement of capital or rents. This matters for debt: the lower the marginal product, the lower the welfare cost of debt. Fourth, I discuss a number of arguments against high public debt, and in particular the existence of multiple equilibria where investors believe debt to be risky and, by requiring a risk premium, increase the fiscal burden and make debt effectively more risky. This is a very relevant argument, but it does not have straightforward implications for the appropriate level of debt. My purpose in the lecture is not to argue for more public debt, especially in the current political environment. It is to have a richer discussion of the costs of debt and of fiscal policy than is currently the case. (JEL E22, E23, E43, E62, H63)

INTRA ASEAN-5 CAPITAL FLOWS: DO THEY REPRESENT NEOCLASSICAL BELIEF OR LUCAS PARADOX?

In the neoclassical belief, capital flows downhill from rich to poor countries as a consequence of capital endowment variation. In contrast to the neoclassical belief, Lucas found evidence that capital tends to flow uphill. This paper investigates the intra ASEAN-5 capital flows. Using panel estimation, we found that marginal product of capital, human capital, total factor productivity growth, and the quality of institutions appear as determinants for the capital flow from Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand to Singapore as a host country. On the contrary, the capital flow from Singapore to other ASEAN countries as host countries is encouraged only by the quality of institutions, human capital as well as per capita GDP. The result shows that Lucas variables emerge as determinants for the uphill and downhill capital flow in ASEAN-5. In the meantime, marginal product of capital that represents neoclassical variable appears as the determinant for uphill capital flow from other ASEAN countries to Singapore. This gives significant insight that Lucas variables emerge as companion to the neoclassical variables in explaining intra ASEAN capital flow

Fundamentals Or Fancies? The Justification Of Returns To Equity From 1950 To 2007

Profit-maximizing firms should continue to invest in economic capital to the point where the marginal product of capital equals the marginal cost of financial capital. As such, the returns to shareholders on the right-hand side of the balance sheet should be justified by the returns generated by assets employed on the left-hand side. The author compares the net real after-tax marginal product of capital with returns on U.S. equities over the period 1950 to 2007. The results show that long-term returns on large cap U.S. equities are justified by the marginal product of capital.