Impacts of Trade Protection by Tariffs on Agricultural Imports and Exports by Using GTAP Model: A Case Study in Vietnam

International economic integration has brought high growth to international trade while promoting economic development for many countries around the world. However, in recent times, in the world, there has appeared a trend opposite to trade liberalization, which is protectionism. Advocates for trade protection provide arguments for why countries implement trade-restrictive measures. Those causes are related to national security and defense, solving the trade deficit, creating jobs, protecting the nascent industry and ensuring fair trade. Countries are currently using tariff measures including import and export tariffs, and non-tariff measures. The article studies protectionism, analyzes the impact of trade protectionism by tariffs on Vietnam’s GDP and exports, and makes policy recommendations for the Government of Vietnam.

Australia agricultural revenues rise after tough year

Significance The strong performance is impressive given pandemic-related disruptions, which have contributed to labour shortages, damage from a continuing plague of mice and Beijing’s limits on some categories of agricultural imports. Impacts Tensions with China over its limits on agricultural imports will continue as Australia protests to the WTO. Companies' search for new export outlets will ultimately lower China-related risks, but progress will vary by sector. Plans to issue temporary visas for overseas workers will come too late to prevent labour shortages in 2021/22.

Cross-border climate vulnerabilities of the European Union to drought

European Union’s vulnerability to climate change stretches far beyond its borders because many of its economic sectors, such as meat and dairy, use raw materials sourced from far afield. Cross-border climate vulnerability is a relatively new subject in scientific literature, while of high societal and economic relevance. We quantify these climate vulnerabilities with a focus on drought risk and assessed them for 2030, 2050, 2085 and for RCP 2.6 and 6.0 climate scenarios. Here we find that more than 44% of the EU agricultural imports will become highly vulnerable to drought in future because of climate change. The drought severity in production locations of the agricultural imports in 2050 will increase by 35% compared to current levels of drought severity. This is particularly valid for imports that originate from Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, India and Turkey. At the same time, imports from Russia, Nigeria, Peru, Ecuador, Uganda and Kenya will be less vulnerable in future. We also report that the climate vulnerabilities of meat and dairy, chocolate (cocoa), coffee, palm oil-based food and cosmetic sectors mainly lie outside the EU borders rather than inside.

The Impact of Floating Egyptian Pound on Agricultural Sector in Egypt

This research aimed to estimate the impact of applying flexible exchange rate on the Egyptian agriculture sector. Egypt applied floating exchange rate regime three times during the period 1991-2018. This research is based on some analytical approaches to achieve its objective such as robust regression and vector error correction model (VECM).It concluded that floating of Egyptian pound was not a good decision and it had a negative impact on Egyptian agricultural sector. The positive relationship between real Egyptian agricultural gross domestic product and real agricultural imports as well as the positive relationship between real agricultural imports and dollar exchange rate in Egypt which are not apply the economic logic, proof that the floating exchange rate regime and the macroeconomic policies applied during the study period were not effective as Egypt imports good and service with high prices due to the devaluation of Egyptian pound. So, the growth in agricultural gross domestic product was not real. The Egyptian government should pay more attention on the agricultural sector.

US-China phase-two trade deals will be issue specific

Significance To halt trade hostilities, Beijing promised to buy more US imports, dismantle tariff and non-tariff barriers and open its financial services market to US firms. In return, the United States promised not to implement its threats to increase tariffs on China's exports. Intractable issues were deferred for 'phase two'. Impacts Beijing may be willing to offer more IP protections and further open financial markets, but will hold the line on labour and human rights. China will continue its strategic diversification of agricultural imports and using them as a tool of economic diplomacy. Market opening will matter more to US businesses' long-term growth in China than short-term trade agreements.

Modelling bioeconomy futures for Eastern Africa

Purpose This paper aims to explore the potential of Bioeconomy as a pathway for sustainable transformation of economies of East Africa. Although East Africa region has shown good growth, this has been accompanied by rising concerns about sustainability, as population growth is putting significant strain on biodiversity undermining capacity for future growth. The search for a new growth pathways points to leveraging bioeconomy. To get insights on the viability of this pathway, this study simulated several scenarios to help inform a regional bioeconomy strategy. Design/methodology/approach To get insights into the viability of this pathway, a conceptual model to capture demand and supply drivers was constructed and simulations were conducted by using the International Futures (IFs) modelling platform. Findings The analysis points to the potential of a bioeconomy-driven economic strategy to drive transformation. However, the simulation points to the fact that if not well thought out, it can also be costly in terms of environment, and indeed such a strategy can lead to a disaster in the long run. It is also clear that having a strong Bioeconomy does not necessarily mean being self-sufficient in agricultural production. If saving the forests or increasing forest cover means agricultural imports rise this should be fine. Also, a strong Bioeconomy does not necessarily mean development objectives are fully met. Research limitations implications The IFs platform is a general platform and thus cannot capture the specific enablers for a Bioeconomy. So strategy development should use the result as starting point. Practical implications Also, a strong bioeconomy does not necessarily mean that development objectives are fully met. A bioeconomy strategy should be part of package of strategy to ensure sustainable and inclusive growth. Originality/value While Bioeconomy is increasingly gaining attention, many countries have proposed strategies the analysis tends to be qualitative. No quantitative simulation of this new economic pathways has yet been conducted in East Africa. The IFs platform is a general simulation platform; therefore, the parameters available in the model cannot fully capture what Bioeconomy is. This analysis needs to be supplemented by a qualitative scenarios analysis.

Does China’s Belt and Road Initiative Threaten Food Security in Central Asia?

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) needs little introduction; the infrastructure investment will reconfigure development in Central Asia. As its origin story and initial encounter, Central Asia offers a prismatic lens to delve into the vital impacts and significant changes wrought by the BRI. In the dryland region, the BRI impact on watersheds and agriculture is a critical challenge with direct implications for food security. Framed by diverse research sources, we utilized spatial datasets from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative and the World Bank to explore the intersection of food production, water and development. Investigation evaluates the possible trade-offs that Chinese infrastructure investment can have on the communities and environment of Central Asia. The findings identify more than 15,000 km of rail and 20,000 km of roads linked to the BRI crisscrossing the region in 2018. Whilst these transport corridors have improved connectivity, many of these rails and roads traverse important agricultural and water zones, creating undetermined risks and opportunities. Land use change was examined within a 10-km buffer around BRI roads and rails from 2008 to 2018. Railways increased by 23% during this time, yet irrigated and rainfed agriculture decreased whilst urban areas markedly expanded. Contextual research identifies how Chinese policies may encourage agribusiness investment for food exports as possible disruptions to national and regional food supply. However, to date Central Asia provides <1% of Chinese agricultural imports. In fact, Afghanistan is the region’s dominant export market, tripling agricultural imports >300% in this time. Similarly, five times more livestock are traded within the region than to China. Evaluating infrastructure change is essential to understand BRI impacts on environments and societies, with the food-water nexus a particular concern in Central Asia. Limited Chinese imports of Central Asian agriculture suggests the region’s food security will not be significantly altered by the Belt and Road Initiative.

Trends in foreign agricultural trade and its impact on households in South Africa

This study examines the trends in foreign trade in agriculture focusing on imports and exports for different sub-sectors and the identity of agricultural trade flows with specific regions and countries. Secondly, to understand how agricultural imports and exports improve the living standards of households in South Africa. The study uses a quantitative research approach by analysing trade data from the South African Revenue Services (SARS) and household data from the World Bank and OECD. The threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model is employed to establish a nonlinear causal relationship. The Diks-Panchenko nonparametric causality test revealed no causal relationship between the foreign agricultural trade and household consumption and household income in South Africa. However, with the increase of exported agricultural goods from South Africa, there are many significant benefits to South African households.

The impact of COVID-19 on the world food system

The article examines the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the world food system (WFS) through the prism of economic and social aspects. It is revealed that the paralysis of world trade caused by the coronavirus pandemic has had a devastating effect on the WFS and threatens global food security. It is proved that in order to prevent a food crisis in the foreseeable future, it is necessary to restructure food systems at the national and global levels, ensure their stability and continuity of operation. Some measures are proposed to prevent trade barriers, protect food supply chains and expand access to food. It is concluded that there is a need to expand domestic «food sovereignty», especially in countries that depend on agricultural imports and are involved in the global food trade system.