Time-Series Statistical Model for Forecasting Revenue and Risk Management

Following a Low-Cost Carrier (LCC) model, Southwest Airlines has consistently demonstrated growing annual revenues up until the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Southwest’s quarterly revenue shows that there exists a strong seasonal component with the revenue in the first quarter of the fiscal year (September) significantly higher than other quarters. Using the quarterly revenue data we constructed a time-series model: a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to forecast Southwest’s revenue over 2020. We then performed a cost and solvency risk analysis using the company’s financial results from its annual reports to analyze Southwest’s financial performance due to COVID-19, and proposed business strategies to keep Southwest financially stable.

Evaluating and Exploring Successful Disruptive Innovation in the Aviation Industry From the Perspective of Consumers

Since Southwest Airlines' disruptive innovation was introduced, low-cost carriers (LCCs) have had a prominent impact on the aviation industry. Therefore, considerable attention has been paid to the LCC model. However, it is still not clear whether it is a successful disruptive innovation, or what factors and differentiation points for successful LCC service exist from the passengers' perspective. As this study's methodology, quantitative and qualitative content analyses are conducted using the word-of-mouth data of 1,854 passengers of 20 airlines. This study found that the LCC model is perceived as a successful disruptive innovation from the passengers' point of view. For successful LCC service, LC airlines should offer higher quality services than passengers' expectations using basic service elements. Also, good staff characteristics, leaving a professional impression, and providing good optional services could play a role as differentiation tools.

Effects of Southwest Airlines on Carrier Profits and Entry Probabilities

This paper studies the effects of Southwest Airlines, the largest low-cost carrier (LCC) in the U.S., on other carriers’ payoff functions and entry probabilities. A static entry game model is developed and estimated by viewing entry as an indicator of underlying profitability and making use of Nash Equilibrium. Results indicate that Southwest has a remarkable and negative impact on the payoffs of other carriers. This impact is firm-specific, with LCCs being more affected than full-service carriers (FSCs). Comparing the two service types, the results show that Southwest’s nonstop presence apparently imposes more downward pressure on opponents’ profits than its connecting presence. A counterfactual experiment is then conducted. Once Southwest is counterfactually removed, the probability of each carrier entering a market significantly changes. This paper examines Southwest’s impacts from a new perspective and extends literature on entry game estimation.

Aviation infrastructures in the Republic of China, 1920–37

This essay investigates technical aspects of the history of aviation in the Republic of China, focusing on the period between 1920 and 1937. It suggests that Chinese authors and administrators came to see the establishment of technical infrastructure as dependent on the education of personnel who could assume responsibility for maintaining and expanding Chinese aviation ventures, rather than on specific technologies or practices. Magazines and journals in the 1920s reflected concerns with the establishment of weather observation and reporting, radio communications, and technical education in service of aviation; the last of these was critical for the first two. Provisions for technical work and training were reflected in contracts that were drawn up in the years around 1930 to establish three aviation projects in the Republic: the China National Aviation Corporation (CNAC), the Eurasia Aviation Corporation, and Southwest Airlines. Subsequent contracts and reports for CNAC and Eurasia in the years before the 1937 outbreak of war with Japan suggested a particular emphasis on the technical education of personnel as an important step in building Chinese aviation infrastructures.

The Peculiarities of Low-Cost Carrier Development in Europe

Low-cost carriers (LCCs) have been growing by 11.4% in revenue passenger kilometers over 2017 and changed the airline industry radically. It drove down prices in the industry. Southwest Airlines (USA) designed the LCC blueprint model, and Ryanair copied it within Europe, followed by other airlines. This research aims to fulfill the gap in contemporary research upon LCC successfulness in Europe by a description of the current situation within Europe (2018 and January 2019) and the development issues it faced, which are mapped by the Ishikawa fishbone diagram. Furthermore, to rank the airlines on strength and vulnerability, The Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) methodology was used for meeting LCC characteristics and airline success. By comparison of meeting the LCC characteristics and the rank of the successfulness, the results of the TOPSIS analysis showed that the airlines meeting the most LCCs characteristics are seemingly less vulnerable to the development issues that airlines are facing, as Wizz Air and Ryanair are meeting most characteristics and are the most successful. Concluded is that airlines meeting the most LCC characteristics are the least vulnerable to current issues. However, major disruptions can still form an issue and limit growth. This research can be useful for comparing and positioning airlines in the market, based on issues and operational choices.