The effect of credit rating downgrades along the supply chain

Purpose This study aims to examine the information transfer effects of customers’ credit rating downgrades on supplier firms. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the authors use suppliers’ cumulative abnormal returns around customers’ credit rating downgrade events to identify how shocks to customer credit impact supplier equity prices. The authors also incorporate ordinary least squares and weighted least squares regressions regression analysis of the determinants of supplier market response to customer downgrades. Findings The authors find that customer credit rating downgrades present significant negative shocks to the stock prices of supplier firms. Moreover, the authors show that the information transfer effects are determined by both firm- and industry-level factors, including the market anticipation of downgrades, the strength of the customer–supplier linkage, the industry rivals’ reactions to the downgrades and investor attention. The authors also find that the likelihood that a supplier will receive a rating downgrade is significantly higher following its primary customer firm’s downgrade. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first to explore the information transfer effects of credit rating downgrades on primary stakeholders within the supply chain. The authors document that customer–supplier networks have valuable implications for the spillover effect across debt and equity holders. Information about customers’ financial stress is incorporated into suppliers’ equity prices outside of the context of customer bankruptcy.

Further Colombian ratings downgrades look likely

Headline COLOMBIA: Further rating downgrades look likely

The Economic Impacts of Air Safety Rating Downgrade for Malaysia

In 2019, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) downgraded the Civil Aviation Authority of Malaysia (CAAM) from tier one to tier two. Existing research has revealed that downgrading air safety ratings has a detrimental effect on the aviation sector. Although extensive research has been carried out on air safety downgrading, limited studies have delved into the backward and forward linkages and inter-industries framework. By employing a difference-in-differences (DID) panel data econometric and input-output (I-O) analysis to a modified sectoral aggregation of Malaysia’s I-O Table 2015, this study is able to simulate the impact of air safety downgrading. The findings show that, apart from being a “key” industry, air safety downgrades could result in a RM722.5 million loss to Malaysia’s GDP. A more in-depth inspection of the results indicates that the reduction in GDP mainly results from the air transport industry (RM252.0 million), other transportation services (RM107.0 million), and wholesale and retail trade (RM66.2 million). The findings complement earlier related studies that air safety rating downgrades could be a severe threat to sustainable economic growth.

Tax Loss Carrybacks as Firm Fiscal Stimulus: A Tale of Two Recessions

This paper studies effects of the five-year net operating loss carryback enacted near the end of the 2001 and 2007-09 U.S. recessions-a policy that gave firms larger U.S. federal tax refunds as a fiscal stimulus measure. Following the end of the 2001 recession, I find the policy had little effect on firm financial conditions and I find that firms allocated $0.40 of every refund dollar to investment in that period. In contrast, the policy improved firm financial conditions following the 2007-09 recession, reducing bankruptcy risk and the probability of future credit-rating downgrades. In this period, I find that firms initially used the refunds to increase cash holdings before paying down debt in the following year. These results highlight the importance of considering macroeconomic conditions when studying firm uses of tax-related cash flow and the related effects on firm financial health.

Negative Brazil outlook may see new rating downgrades

Headline BRAZIL: Negative outlook may see new rating downgrades

The impact of market sectors and rating agencies on credit ratings: global evidence

Purpose A credit rating, as a single indicator on one consistent scale, is designed as an objective and comparable measure within a credit rating agency (CRA). While research focuses mainly on the comparability of ratings between agencies, this paper additionally questions empirically how CRAs meet their promise of providing a consistent assessment of credit risk for issuers within and between market segments of the same agency. Design/methodology/approach Exhaustive and robust regression analyses are run to assess the impact of market sectors and rating agencies on credit ratings. The examinations consider the rating level, as well as rating downgrades as a further measure of empirical credit risk. Data stems from a large global sample of Bloomberg ratings from 11 market sectors for the period 2010-2018. Findings The analyses show differing effects of sectors and agencies on issuer ratings and downgrade probabilities. Empirical results on credit ratings and rating downgrades can then be attributed to investment grade and non-investment grade ratings. Originality/value The paper contributes to current finance research and practice by examining the credit rating differences between sectors and agencies and providing assistance to investors and other stakeholders, as well as researchers, how issuers’ sector and rating agency affiliations act as relative metrics.