Like Father, Like Son: Inheriting and Bequeathing

This paper incorporates indirect reciprocal behavior in the context of bequeathing decisions into an otherwise standard OLG model. We provide conditions for the existence of a unique steady state with operative bequests. Contrary to standard OLG models, we show that taking into account such behavioral interactions allows one to rationalize both an increasing and U-shaped pattern of the inheritance to GDP ratio over time, consistent with recent empirical evidence. Moreover, the model predicts a nonlinear (U-shaped) relationship between the size of an unfunded social security program and the long-run stock of per capita capital, which in turn provides a novel explanation of the inconclusive empirical findings on the relationship between social security, savings and long-run growth. Ricardian equivalence is shown to hold in a special case of the model.

Longer Life and Higher Fertility in an OLG Economy with Production

This paper investigates the effect of a change in life expectancy (i.e., longevity) on fertility in a standard OLG economy. The main result is that, in contrast with other papers, an increase in the longevity rate may increase the fertility rate as well. It is shown that such a result holds when the cost of rearing children in terms of goods and services (rather than in terms of forgone wages) matters. In particular, such a result depends on the relative “strength” of the capital in the technology as compared with the “strength” of the parsimony. Moreover it is shown, again in contrast with other papers, that with an unfunded social security system it is more likely that a longer life may increase the fertility. The latter result is even more likely in the presence of child subsidy policies, which are widespread in developed countries. In conclusion, we argue that in countries having a population with a high longevity, a high capital share, a large unfunded social security, and child subsidy policies (such as Italy), a further increase of longevity may increase fertility in the long run and thus partially alleviate the peril of the so-called “demographic bomb.”

A NOTE ON SOCIAL SECURITY WELFARE WITH SELF-CONTROL PROBLEMS

We develop an overlapping-generations model for a closed economy with uncertainty on labor income and mortality risk to show that unfunded social security programs may increase welfare in economies where agents are affected by self-control problems à la Gul and Pesendorfer (2001, Econometrica 69, 1403). We depart from the existing literature by setting the agent's preference parameters to match target levels of macro-variables observed in the real U.S. economy. In our approach, economies with tempted and nontempted agents are indistinguishable in terms of aggregate consumption, labor, and saving behavior when social security provides a replacement rate of 40% (as in the United States). This situation makes agents bear costly self-control problems over more years. Our simulations indicate that social security improves welfare with degrees of temptation equal to 11% or higher. A social security program with a replacement rate of 40% finds support for degrees of temptation not lower than 15%.

Pareto-Improving Social Security Reform when Financial Markets Are Incomplete!?

This paper studies an overlapping generations model with stochastic production and incomplete markets to assess whether the introduction of an unfunded social security system leads to a Pareto improvement. When returns to capital and wages are imperfectly correlated, a system that endows retired households with claims to labor income enhances the sharing of aggregate risk between generations. Our quantitative analysis shows that, abstracting from the capital crowding-out effect, the introduction of social security represents a Pareto-improving reform, even when the economy is dynamically efficient. However, the severity of the crowding-out effect in general equilibrium tends to overturn these gains.

Incentives to retire later – a solution to the social security crisis?

As one possible solution to the well-known financing crisis of unfunded social security systems, an increase in the retirement age is a popular option. To induce workers to retire later, it has been proposed to strengthen the link between retirement age and benefit level. The present paper is devoted to analyzing the long-run financial implications of such a reform. We show that with actuarial adjustments the long-run contribution rate is an increasing function of the retirement age chosen by workers. Moreover, the implicit tax paid to the pension system by a participant can increase in the long run if the retirement age rises in response to a ‘steep’ adjustment rule. In this sense, the proposed ‘cure’ may worsen the disease. Finally, we show how the negative effects can be avoided by forming a capital stock from the additional revenues due to later retirement.

Kapitaldeckungs- versus Umlageverfahren

In the academic debate on systems of old-age insurance no question is as controversial and as vigorously discussed as the choice between funded and unfunded financing modes. At first glance this is surprising because this choice seems to involve only an efficiency problem. However, closer inspection reveals that a change of the financing system implies redistribution, if not within, at least among, different generations. In this contribution, the present state of knowledge on the functioning and the effects of the two financing systems is summarized. The analysis focuses on a comparison of rates of return and risks involved in each system and on the problems connected with a transition from unfunded to funded pensions. As a result it is argued that without reference to specific criteria of distributive equity among generations the nowadays popular call for radical reform of unfunded social security systems is not well founded.