ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL AND DROUGHT CLIMATOLOGY FOR CROP PLANNING IN SUBTROPICAL PLAINS OF CHATHA, JAMMU

Although the subject area of climate change is vast, the changing pattern of rainfall is a topic within this field that deserves urgent and systematic attention, since it affects both the availability of freshwater and food production (Dore, 2005). Climate change is one of the key global challenges in the present era. It refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period typically decades or long (World Meteorological Organization). According to Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world indeed has become more drought prone with higher frequencies of extreme events.

Organizing Authority in the Climate Change Debate: IPCC Controversies and the Management of Dialectical Tensions

At the centre of the undeniably contentious debates about climate change lies the question of authority: Which voices will be heard and, thus, who will influence policy, activism, and scientific inquiry? Following high-profile errors found in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Dutch Parliament sought to achieve ‘balance’ in these debates by bringing together climate scientists and skeptics for a set of online discussions. Using both communication and dialectical theorizing, we explore the organizing of authority around climate change in the Netherlands. We locate dialectical tensions and discursive positions of diverse actors in the debate, examining the communication practices by which actors sought to resolve tensions as part of three authoritative moves: bridging, (de)coupling, and resisting. The combination of these authoritative moves failed to engage with – and therefore could not resolve – the sources of the underlying dialectical tensions. We build on these insights to suggest contributions to the climate change debate and theory on authority in organization studies.

The Core Conclusions and Interpretation of Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

In September 2013, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report (WGI AR5). Based on the latest observational data and research literatures since the publication of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007, this report comprehensively assesses the research progress in the field of climate change, providing significant scientific basis for international community to deeply understand and address the climate change. This paper introduces the core conclusions of WGI AR5, and illustrates Chinese scientific community's contribution to this report, meanwhile, gives a brief analysis of China's advantages and disadvantages in the field of climate change science through analyzing this report.

Awareness of Both Type 1 and 2 Errors in Climate Science and Assessment

Treatment of error and uncertainty is an essential component of science and is crucial in policy-relevant disciplines, such as climate science. We posit here that awareness of both “false positive” and “false negative” errors is particularly critical in climate science and assessments, such as those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Scientific and assessment practices likely focus more attention to avoiding false positives, which could lead to higher prevalence of false-negative errors. We explore here the treatment of error avoidance in two prominent case studies regarding sea level rise and Himalayan glacier melt as presented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. While different decision rules are necessarily appropriate for different circumstances, we highlight that false-negative errors also have consequences, including impaired communication of the risks of climate change. We present recommendations for better accounting for both types of errors in the scientific process and scientific assessments.

The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather: Comment

In a series of studies employing a variety of approaches, we have found that the potential impact of climate change on US agriculture is likely negative. Deschênes and Greenstone (2007) report dramatically different results based on regressions of agricultural profits and yields on weather variables. The divergence is explained by (1) missing and incorrect weather and climate data in their study; (2) their use of older climate change projections rather than the more recent and less optimistic projections from the Fourth Assessment Report; and (3) difficulties in their profit measure due to the confounding effects of storage.

(Re) Considering Cattle Farming in Southern Africa under a Changing Climate

Scientists in southern Africa and elsewhere focusing on climate change and agriculture are increasingly demonstrating how livestock, as a highly climate sensitive sector, may be affected by climate change. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) observes, for example, that “Projected increased temperature, combined with reduced precipitation in some regions (e.g., Southern Africa) would lead to increased loss of domestic herbivores during extreme events in drought-prone areas” (Easterling et al.). Response and policy discussions around climate change and agriculture in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region have, however, thus far tended to focus far more on staple crops. The latest projected future temperatures for southern Africa show a clear increase across most models. Further, temperatures in exceedance of tested livestock comfort thresholds are indicated for the future, particularly for those months of most concern to cattle farmers. Enabling adaptation in the livestock sector should thus be a significant focus of a country’s response to climate change, particularly in countries where the livestock sector is a critical component of the formal and informal economy. Although innovations are often a primary component of livestock adaptation plans under design, it is now recognized that longstanding approaches to the management of livestock may well have valuable lessons for future adaptation. Such approaches include the reintroduction of genetically diverse and resilient breeds, as well as increased support and incentives for those farmers planning and undertaking such approaches.