Abstract
Vb-cyclones propagating from the North-Western Mediterranean Sea into Central Europe are often associated with extreme precipitation. This study explores the state & process chains linking the North-Western Mediterranean Sea and the Vb-event precipitation in Danube, Elbe, and Odra catchments in regional coupled atmosphere-ocean climate simulations with COSMO-CLM+NEMO.
Two high-resolution simulations, an evaluation simulation (1951-2005) downscaling the centennial ERA-20C reanalysis and a continuous simulation (historical 1951-2005 + RCP-8.5 future scenario 2006-2099) downscaling the EC-EARTH global climate RCP-8.5 projection are used for this purpose. Sea surface temperature (SST) validation with observations over the Mediterranean Sea reveals a cold bias (approx 1 -- 1.5 K) in the historical & evaluation simulations. There is a good agreement in mean annual Vb-cyclone frequency between the evaluation (9.7 events/year) and the historical (10.1 events/year) simulations. But, there are significant discrepancies in the seasonal cycle. The mean cyclone intensity measured with minimum central pressure, track density, and precipitation rankings in the catchments also show good agreement. A basin-average SST warming of approx 2.5 -- 3 K, but insignificant changes in Vb-frequency, mean intensity, and precipitation in the catchments are projected by the end of the 21st century.
The North-Western Mediterranean SST, evaporation, and wind speed anomalies corresponding to the precipitation rankings over the three catchments & associated process chains differ between the evaluation & historical simulations. In the evaluation simulation, Vb-cyclone precipitation rankings correspond with SST, evaporation, and wind speed anomalies, while in the historical & the future simulation no such correspondence is seen. Especially the Adriatic & Ionian basins show no sensitivity to the Vb events in the EC-EARTH driven simulation. The change in the processes might be because of the emergence of simulation biases inherited from the driving EC-EARTH global simulation.