Predicting potential distribution and evaluating biotic interactions of threatened species: a case study of Discocactus ferricola (Cactaceae)

Information on distribution, number of populations, and biotic interactions are essential for assessing the threat status of species and to establish more effective conservation initiatives. Ecological niche modeling have been successfully applied to identify the potential distribution, even for rare species that have few recorded occurrence points. In this study, we evaluated the potential distribution and additionally generated the first data on the reproductive biology of Discocactus ferricola, due to its degree of threat and the absence of ecological data for that species. The potential distribution map highlighted areas with higher probability of occurrence of D. ferricola on the Residual Plateau of Maciço do Urucum located in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The occurrence of D. ferricola populations was limited to outcrops of flat ironstone (cangas) distributed in patches across the landscape, increasing the chances of serious threats, such as habitat loss due to mining and species extraction. We also found that D. ferricola is xenogamous. Therefore, in situ conservation actions must prioritize the maintenance of interactions with pollinators by preserving the flora and fauna of rocky outcrops and adjacent forests in areas of greater environmental suitability for D. ferricola. Our study highlights the use of ecological niche modeling and data on biotic interactions to evaluate species potential distribution, to guide new sampling efforts, and to assist conservation and management initiatives.

An Overview of Historical Distribution Patterns of Chalcides ocellatus (Forsskål, 1775) Using Ecological Niche Modelling: the Taurus Mountains as a Refugium

The Taurus Mountains that have a very rich biodiversity are one of the most important mountain chains in Anatolia. In this study, we examined distribution patterns of Chalcides ocellatus that has a restricted dispersal between the Taurus Mountains from the past to current using ecological niche modeling. The Taurus Mountains have played the role as a refugium area in which C. ocellatus could survive through a period of unfavorable conditions. Especially in the glaciation period, Amanos Mountains in the Middle Taurus as an isolating barrier appeared unsuitable habitats for the lineages of C. ocellatus. This indicated that the lineages of C. ocellatus were formed as a result of habitat fragmentation during the last glacial maximum and last interglacial, and were consequently adapted to different climatic conditions.

Incongruent Spatial Distribution of Taxonomic, Phylogenetic, and Functional Diversity in Neotropical Cocosoid Palms

Biodiversity can be quantified by taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity. Current evidence points to a lack of congruence between the spatial distribution of these facets due to evolutionary and ecological constraints. A lack of congruence is especially evident between phylogenetic and taxonomic diversity since the name and number of species are an artificial, yet commonly used, way to measure biodiversity. Here we hypothesize that due to evolutionary constraints that link phylogenetic and functional diversity, areas with higher phylogenetic and functional diversity will be spatially congruent in Neotropical cocosoid palms, but neither will be congruent with areas of high taxonomic diversity. Also, we hypothesize that any congruent pattern differs between rainforests and seasonally dry forests, since these palms recently colonized and diversified in seasonally dry ecosystems. We use ecological niche modeling, a phylogenetic tree and a trait database to test the spatial congruence of the three facets of biodiversity. Taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity were negatively correlated. Phylogenetic and functional diversity were positively correlated, even though their spatial congruence was lower than expected at random. Taken together, our results suggest that studies focusing solely on large-scale patterns of taxonomic diversity are missing a wealth of information on diversification potential and ecosystem functioning.

A Contribution to the Biogeography of Ablepharus anatolicus and A. budaki (Squamata: Scincidae) Using Ecological Niche Modeling in Turkey

The Anatolian Peninsula is very richly biodiverse in terms of its location and with new studies, this wealth has gradually increased as new taxa of Anatolian origin are added to the literature. Ablepharus budaki and A. anatolicus, formerly considered to be subspecies of A. kitaibelli and A. budaki respectively, are spread throughout the southern part of Anatolia. Although recent phylogenetic and morphological studies revealed their species status, no information was given about the relation of the species with each other in terms of ecological niche. In this study, our primary goal was to discover whether the niches of these two taxa were different from each other. Considering the analyses made within the scope of this study, it has been revealed that both A. anatolicus and A. budaki are different from each other in terms of their ecological niche. However, since these two taxa have very small contact regions, an example of parapatric speciation, and their distribution areas cover almost completely different geographies, we can say that they have different ecological niche requirements, according to the results of this study. As a result, this study supported the findings in literature and the idea that these taxa are two different species

Urban Environments Aid Invasion of Brown Widows (Theridiidae: Latrodectus geometricus) in North America, Constraining Regions of Overlap and Mitigating Potential Impact on Native Widows

Urbanization is a major cause of biotic homogenization and habitat fragmentation for native communities. However, the role of urbanization on the success of biological invasions on a continental scale has yet to be explored. Urbanization may facilitate the establishment success of invasive species by minimizing niche differentiation between native and invaded ranges. In such cases, we might expect anthropogenic variables to have stronger influence on the geographic distribution of invasive compared to native populations. In this study, we use ecological niche modeling to define the distribution of non-native brown widow spider (Latrodectus geometricus) and three native black widows (L. hespersus, L. mactans, L. variolus) in North America and gauge the importance of urbanization on the geographic ranges of widows at a continental scale. We also quantify the geographic overlap of L. geometricus with each native widow to assess potential species and regions at risk of ecological impact. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that the distribution of L. geometricus is strongly constrained to urban environments, while native widow distributions are more strongly driven by climatic factors. These results show that urbanization plays a significant role in facilitating the success of invasion, weakening the significance of climate on the realized niche in its invaded range.

Geographic Distribution of Colombian Spittlebugs (Hemiptera: Cercopidae) via Ecological Niche Modeling: A Prediction for the Main Tropical Forages' Pest in the Neotropics

Spittlebugs (Hemiptera: Cercopidae) are the main tropical pests in Central and South America of cultivated pastures. We aimed to estimate the potential distribution of Aeneolamia varia, A. lepidior, A. reducta, Prosapia simulans, Zulia carbonaria, and Z. pubescens throughout the Neotropics using ecological niche modeling. These six insect species are common in Colombia and cause large economic losses. Records of these species, prior to the year 2000, were compiled from human observations, specimens from CIAT Arthropod Reference Collection (CIATARC), Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), speciesLink (splink), and an extensive literature review. Different ecological niche models (ENMs) were generated for each species: Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), generalized linear (GLM), multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), and random forest model (RF). Bioclimatic datasets were obtained from WorldClim and the 19 available variables were used as predictors. Future changes in the potential geographical distribution were simulated in ENMs generated based on climate change projections for 2050 in two scenarios: optimistic and pessimistic. The results suggest that (i) Colombian spittlebugs impose an important threat to Urochloa production in different South American countries, (ii) each spittlebug species has a unique geographic distribution pattern, (iii) in the future the six species are likely to invade new geographic areas even in an optimistic scenario, (iv) A. lepidior and A. reducta showed a higher number of suitable habitats across Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil, Peru, and Ecuador, where predicted risk is more severe. Our data will allow to (i) monitor the dispersion of these spittlebug species, (ii) design strategies for integrated spittlebug management that include resistant cultivars adoption to mitigate potential economic damage, and (iii) implement regulatory actions to prevent their introduction and spread in geographic areas where the species are not yet found.

Molecular evidence and ecological niche modeling reveal an extensive hybrid zone among three Bursera species (section Bullockia)

The genus Bursera, includes ~100 shrub and trees species in tropical dry forests with its center of diversification and endemism in Mexico. Morphologically intermediate individuals have commonly been observed in Mexican Bursera in areas where closely related species coexist. These individuals are assumed to result from interspecific hybridization, but no molecular evidence has supported their hybrid origins. This study aimed to investigate the existence of interspecific hybridization among three Mexican Bursera species (Bullockia section: B. cuneata, B. palmeri and B. bipinnata) from nine populations based on DNA sequences (three nuclear and four chloroplast regions) and ecological niche modeling for three past and two future scenario projections. Results from the only two polymorphic nuclear regions (PEPC, ETS) supported the hybrid origin of morphologically intermediate individuals and revealed that B. cuneata and B. bipinnata are the parental species that are genetically closer to the putative hybrids. Ecological niche modeling accurately predicted the occurrence of putative hybrid populations and showed a potential hybrid zone extending in a larger area (74,000 km2) than previously thought. Paleo-reconstructions showed a potential hybrid zone existing from the Last Glacial Maximum (~ 21 kya) that has increased since the late Holocene to the present. Future ecological niche projections show an increment of suitability of the potential hybrid zone for 2050 and 2070 relative to the present. Hybrid zone changes responded mostly to an increase in elevational ranges. Our study provides the first insight of an extensive hybrid zone among three Mexican Bursera species based on molecular data and ecological niche modeling.

Inferring the Potential Geographic Distribution and Reasons for the Endangered Status of the Tree Fern, Sphaeropteris lepifera, in Lingnan, China Using a Small Sample Size

In this study, we investigated suitable habitats for the endangered tree fern, Sphaeropteris lepifera (J. Sm. ex Hook.) R.M. Tryon, based on fieldwork, ecological niche modeling, and regression approaches. We combined these data with the characterization of spore germination and gametophytic development in the laboratory to assess the reasons why S. lepifera is endangered and to propose a conservation strategy that focuses on suitable sites for reintroduction and accounts for the ecology and biphasic life cycle of the species. Our methods represent an integration of process- and correlation-based approaches to understanding the distributional patterns of this species, and this combined approach, while uncommonly applied, is a more robust strategy than either approach used in isolation. Our ecological niche models indicated that cold temperature extremes, temperature stability over long- and short-terms, and the seasonality of precipitation were among the most important abiotic environmental factors affecting the distribution of S. lepifera among the variables that we measured. Moreover, distribution of this fern species is also strongly influenced by the timing of development of male and female gametes. Additionally, we observed that slope aspect, specifically south-facing slopes, facilitates more incoming sunlight for mature trees, and simultaneously, provides greater, much-needed shade for fiddleheads on account of the canopy being denser. We believe that our study can provide important guidance on the restoration of S. lepifera in the wild. Specifically, potential restoration areas can be screened for the specific environmental factors that we infer to have a critical impact on the survival of the species.