Bayesian Updating of Solar Panel Fragility Curves and Implications of Higher Panel Strength for Solar Generation Resilience

Solar generation can become a major and global source of clean energy by 2050. Nevertheless, few studies have assessed its resilience to extreme events, and none have used empirical data to characterize the fragility of solar panels. This paper develops fragility functions for rooftop and ground-mounted solar panels calibrated with solar panel structural performance data in the Caribbean for Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 and Hurricane Dorian in 2019. After estimating hurricane wind fields, we follow a Bayesian approach to estimate fragility functions for rooftop and ground-mounted panels based on observations supplemented with existing numerical studies on solar panel vulnerability. Next, we apply the developed fragility functions to assess failure rates due to hurricane hazards in Miami-Dade, Florida, highlighting that panels perform below the code requirements, especially rooftop panels. We also illustrate that strength increases can improve the panels' structural performance effectively. However, strength increases by a factor of two still cannot meet the reliability stated in the code. Our results advocate reducing existing panel vulnerabilities to enhance resilience but also acknowledge that other strategies, e.g., using storage or deploying other generation sources, will likely be needed for energy security during storms.

Dynamical Downscaling Projections of Late 21st Century U.S. Landfalling Hurricane Activity

U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) activity was projected for late 21st century conditions using a two-step dynamical downscaling framework. A regional atmospheric model, run for 27 seasons, generated tropical storm cases. Each storm case was re-simulated (up to 15 days) using the higher resolution GFDL hurricane model. Thirteen CMIP3 or CMIP5 modeled climate change projections were explored as scenarios. Robustness of projections was assessed using statistical significance tests and comparing the sign of changes derived from different models. The proportion of TCs (tropical storms and hurricanes) making U.S. landfall increases for the warming scenarios (by order 50% or more). For category 1-3 hurricane frequency, a robust decrease is projected (basin-wide), but robust changes are not projected for U.S. landfalling cases. A relatively robust increase in U.S. landfalling category 4-5 hurricane frequency is projected, averaging about +400% across the models; 10 of 13 models/ensembles project an increase (statistically significant in three individual models), while three models projected no change. The most robust projections overall for U.S. landfalling TC activity are for increased near-storm rainfall rates: these increases average +18% (all tropical storms and hurricanes), +26% (all hurricanes), and +37% (major hurricanes). Landfalling hurricane wind speed intensities show no robust signal, in contrast to a ~5% increase in basin-averaged TC intensity; basin-wide Power Dissipation Index (PDI) is projected to decrease, partly due to decreased duration. TC translation speed increases a few percent in most simulations. A caveat is the framework’s low correlation of modeled U.S. TC landfalls vs. observed interannual variations (1980-2016).

Understanding the Effects of Wind Intensity, Forward Speed, Pressure and Track on Generation and Propagation of Hurricane Irma Surges around Florida

In this study, it is demonstrated that hurricane wind intensity, forward speed, pressure, and track play an important role on the generation and propagation of coastal storm surges. Hurricane Irma, which heavily impacted the entire Florida peninsula in 2017, is used to study the storm surge sensitivity to varying storm characteristics. Results show that the west coast experiences a negative surge due to offshore wind of the approaching storm, but the positive surge returns after the hurricane eye passes over a location and wind became onshore. In the west coast peak, surges are intensified by an increase in onshore wind intensity and forward speed. In the Florida Keys, peak surges are intensified by an increase in wind intensity, a decrease in forward speed and a decrease in pressure. In southeast and east Florida, peak surges are intensified by decrease in pressure, although overall surges are less significant as the water can slide along the coastline. In the recessed coastline of Georgia-Carolinas, maximum surge is elevated by an increase in onshore wind intensity. Shifting the track westward increases peak surges on the west coast, while shifting the track eastward increases peak surge on the east coast. The results demonstrate a new understanding about the sensitivity of surge to varying parametric conditions and the importance of considering changes in the coastline orientation in storm surge predictions.

A Hyperactive End to the Atlantic Hurricane Season: October–November 2020

The active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season produced 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes, and 7 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). Though the season was active overall, the final two months (October–November) raised 2020 into the upper echelon of Atlantic hurricane activity for integrated metrics such as Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). This study focuses on October–November 2020, when 7 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes formed and produced ACE of 74 * 104 kt2. Since 1950, October–November 2020 ranks tied for 3rd for named storms, 1st for hurricanes and major hurricanes, and 2nd for ACE. Six named storms also underwent rapid intensification (≥30 kt intensification in ≤24 hr) in October–November 2020—the most on record.This manuscript includes a climatological analysis of October–November tropical cyclones (TCs) and their primary formation regions. In 2020, anomalously low wind shear in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, likely driven by a moderate intensity La Niña event and anomalously high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Caribbean provided dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that were much more conducive than normal for late-season TC formation and rapid intensification. This study also highlights October–November 2020 landfalls, including Hurricanes Delta and Zeta in Louisiana and in Mexico and Hurricanes Eta and Iota in Nicaragua. The active late season in the Caribbean would have been anticipated by a statistical model using the July–September-averaged ENSO Longitude Index and Atlantic warm pool SSTs as predictors.

Fiber Reinforced Polymer as Wood Roof-to-Wall Connections to Withstand Hurricane Wind Loads

Light wood roof-to-wall connections are vulnerable when subjected to high-speed winds. In lieu of traditional metal connections, the present finite element analysis (FEA) study focuses on the use of epoxy and easy-to-apply, noncorrosive FRP ties to connect the roof and the walls in wood frames. The FEA models of the wood roof-to-wall GFRP connection were validated with an experimental study in the literature. Subsequently parametric study was performed on the validated FEA models. Parameters considered were the addition of anchorages to secure the GFRP ties for FEA models of shear and uplift tests, and various FRP types. Wood roof-to-wall connection uplift model was subjected to monotonic cyclic loading to simulate the effect of wind load. In addition, carbon and basalt FRP ties were also examined under monotonic cyclic loading. To evaluate the efficiency of GFRP ties with and without anchorages, the shear and uplift design loads specified in ASCE 7-16 were calculated. Finally, a formula was proposed to approximate the shear strength of GFRP connection in comparison with double shear bolted metal plate connections. The FEA models and experimental results were in good agreement. The finite element results revealed that anchorage increased the uplift load capacity by 15% but the increase in shear capacity was insignificant. Comparing glass, carbon, and basalt FRP ties, BFRP was superior in deformation capacity and CFRP provided more stiffness on uplift test simulation. GFRP ties were found to be approximately nine times stronger in shear and two times stronger in uplift resistance than hurricane clips. Finally, the proposed formula could predict the shear strength of GFRP tie connection which in turns contributes to the design and future research.