Seasonal Evolution of Supraglacial Lakes on Baltoro Glacier From 2016 to 2020

The existence of supraglacial lakes influences debris-covered glaciers in two ways. The absorption of solar radiation in the water leads to a higher ice ablation, and water draining through the glacier to its bed leads to a higher velocity. Rising air temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns provoke an increase in the supraglacial lakes in number and total area. However, the seasonal evolution of supraglacial lakes and thus their potential for influencing mass balance and ice dynamics have not yet been sufficiently analyzed. We present a summertime series of supraglacial lake evolution on Baltoro Glacier in the Karakoram from 2016 to 2020. The dense time series is enabled by a multi-sensor and multi-temporal approach based on optical (Sentinel-2 and PlanetScope) and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR; Sentinel-1 and TerraSAR-X) remote sensing data. The mapping of the seasonal lake evolution uses a semi-automatic approach, which includes a random forest classifier applied separately to each sensor. A combination of linear regression and the Hausdorff distance is used to harmonize between SAR- and optical-derived lake areas, producing consistent and internally robust time series dynamics. Seasonal variations in the lake area are linked with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Temperature Index (STI) based on air temperature and precipitation data derived from the climate reanalysis dataset ERA5-Land. The largest aggregated lake area was found in 2018 with 5.783 km2, followed by 2019 with 4.703 km2, and 2020 with 4.606 km2. The years 2016 and 2017 showed the smallest areas with 3.606 and 3.653 km2, respectively. Our data suggest that warmer spring seasons (April–May) with higher precipitation rates lead to increased formation of supraglacial lakes. The time series decomposition shows a linear increase in the lake area of 11.12 ± 9.57% per year. Although the five-year observation period is too short to derive a significant trend, the tendency for a possible increase in the supraglacial lake area is in line with the pronounced positive anomalies of the SPI and STI during the observation period.

Glacial Lake Area Change and Potential Outburst Flood Hazard Assessment in the Bhutan Himalaya

Against the background of climate change-induced glacier melting, numerous glacial lakes are formed across high mountain areas worldwide. Existing glacial lake inventories, chiefly created using Landsat satellite imagery, mainly relate to 1990 onwards and relatively long (decadal) temporal scales. Moreover, there is a lack of robust information on the expansion and the GLOF hazard status of glacial lakes in the Bhutan Himalaya. We mapped Bhutanese glacial lakes from the 1960s to 2020, and used these data to determine their distribution patterns, expansion behavior, and GLOF hazard status. 2,187 glacial lakes (corresponding to 130.19 ± 2.09 km2) were mapped from high spatial resolution (1.82–7.62 m), Corona KH-4 images from the 1960s. Using the Sentinel-2 (10 m) and Sentinel-1 (20 m × 22 m), we mapped 2,553 (151.81 ± 7.76 km2), 2,566 (152.64 ± 7.83 km2), 2,572 (153.94 ± 7.83 km2), 2,569 (153.97 ± 7.79 km2) and 2,574 (156.63 ± 7.95 km2) glacial lakes in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively. The glacier-fed lakes were mainly present in the Phochu (22.63%) and the Kurichu (20.66%) basins. A total of 157 glacier-fed lakes have changed into non-glacier-fed lakes over the 60 years of lake evolution. Glacier-connected lakes (which constitutes 42.25% of the total glacier-fed lake) area growth accounted for 75.4% of the total expansion, reaffirming the dominant role of glacier-melt water in expanding glacial lakes. Between 2016 and 2020, 19 (4.82 km2) new glacial lakes were formed with an average annual expansion rate of 0.96 km2 per year. We identified 31 lakes with a very-high and 34 with high GLOF hazard levels. These very-high to high GLOF hazard lakes were primarily located in the Phochu, Kurichu, Drangmechu, and Mochu basins. We concluded that the increasing glacier melt is the main driver of glacial lake expansion. Our results imply that extending glacial lakes studies back to the 1960s provides new insights on glacial lake evolution from glacier-fed lakes to non-glacier-fed lakes. Additionally, we reaffirmed the capacity of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data to determine annual glacial lake changes. The results from this study can be a valuable basis for future glacial lake monitoring and prioritizing limited resources for GLOF mitigation programs.

Methane emissions from northern lakes under climate change: a review

Northern lakes are important sources of CH4 in the atmosphere under the background of permafrost thaw and winter warming. We synthesize studies on thermokarst lakes, including various carbon sources for CH4 emission and the influence of thermokarst drainage on carbon emission, to show the evasion potential of ancient carbon that stored in the permafrost and CH4 emission dynamics along with thermokarst lake evolution. Besides, we discuss the lake CH4 dynamics in seasonally ice-covered lakes, especially for under-ice CH4 accumulation and emission during spring ice melt and the possible influential factors for CH4 emission in ice-melt period. We summarize the latest findings and point out that further research should be conducted to investigate the possibility of abundant ancient carbon emission from thermokarst lakes under climate warming and quantify the contribution of ice-melt CH4 emission from northern lakes on a large scale.

Changes in glacial lakes in the Poiqu River basin in the central Himalayas

The Poiqu River basin is an area of concentration for glaciers and glacial lakes in the central Himalayas, where 147 glacial lakes were identified, based on perennial remote sensing images, with lake area ranging from 0.0002 to 5.5 km2 – a total of 19.89 km2. Since 2004, the retreat rate of glacier has reached as high as 5.0 km2 a−1, while the growth rate of glacial lake has reached 0.24 km2 a−1. We take five typical lakes as our case study and find that the retreat of glacier area reaches 31.2 %, while the glacial lake area has expanded by 166 %. Moreover, we reconstruct the topography of the lake basin to calculate the water capacity and propose a water balance equation (WBE) to explore the lake evolution. By applying the WBE to the five lakes, we calculate the water supplies of the last few years and compare this with the results of field surveys, which are in agreement, within an error of only 1.86 % on average. The WBE also reveals that the water supplies to the lake depend strongly on the altitude. Lakes at low altitudes are supplied by glacier melting, and lakes at high altitudes are supplied by snowmelts. The WBE is not only applicable for predicting future changes in glacial lakes under climate warming conditions but is also useful for assessing water resources from rivers in the central Himalayas.

Hydrological Evolution of a Lake Recharged by Groundwater in the Badain Jaran Desert Over the Past 140 years

Understanding the evolution of lakes in arid areas is very important for water resource management. Previous studies have mainly focused on lakes with runoff recharge, while the evolution of groundwater recharge lakes in hyper-arid areas is still less known. In this study, an 86 cm-long sediment core was extracted from Sayinwusu Lake, one of groundwater-recharge lakes in the southeastern Badain Jaran Desert, Northwest China. 210Pb and 137Cs dating, total organic carbon (TOC) and total nitrogen (TN) contents, and mineral content analysis were used to reconstruct the lake evolution over the past 140 years. The evolution of Sayinwusu Lake since 1880 can be divided into two periods. In the first period from 1880 to 1950, the TOC and TN contents were low, and the minerals consisted of all detrital minerals, which indicate that the lake’s primary productivity and salinity were low. During the second period from 1950 to 2018, the contents of TOC, TN, and carbonate minerals increased rapidly at the beginning of the 1950s, indicating that the lake’s primary productivity and salinity increased. Comprehensive analysis of regional climate data suggests that the increase in evaporation caused by rising temperature is an important factor affecting lake evolution in the desert. Although precipitation has increased in the arid region of Northwest China in recent decades with increasing temperature, the enhancement of the evaporation effect is much greater. As a record from groundwater recharge lakes in deserts, our study provides new insight into projecting future lake changes in hyper-arid areas.

100 years of lake evolution over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Lakes can be effective indicators of climate change, and this is especially so for the lakes over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), the highest plateau in the world, which undergoes little direct human influence. The QTP has warmed at twice the mean global rate, and the lakes there respond rapidly to climate and cryosphere changes. The QTP has ∼ 1200 lakes larger than 1 km2 with a total area of ∼ 46 000 km2, accounting for approximately half the number and area of lakes in China. The lakes over the QTP have been selected as an essential example for global lakes or water body studies. However, concerning lake data over the QTP are limited to the Landsat era and/or available at sparse intervals. Here, we extend the record to provide comprehensive lake evolution data sets covering the past 100 years (from 1920 to 2020). Lake mapping in 1920 was derived from an early map of the Republic of China and in 1960 from the topographic map of China. The densest lake inventories produced so far between 1970 and 2020 (covering all lakes larger than 1 km2 in 14 epochs) are mapped from Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+, and OLI images. The lake evolution shows remarkable transitions between four phases: significant shrinkage in 1920–1995, rapid linear increase in 1995–2010, relative stability in 2010–2015, and further increase in 2015–2020. The spatial pattern indicates that the majority of lakes shrank in 1920–1995 and expanded in 1995–2020, with a dominant enlargement for central-north lakes in contrast to contraction for southern lakes in 1976–2020. The time series of precipitation between 1920 and 2017 indirectly supports the evolution trends of lakes identified in this study. The lake data set is freely available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4678104 (Zhang et al., 2021a).

Remote sensing of the mountain cryosphere: Current capabilities and future opportunities for research

Remote sensing technologies are integral to monitoring the mountain cryosphere in a warming world. Satellite missions and field-based platforms have transformed understanding of the processes driving changes in mountain glacier dynamics, snow cover, lake evolution, and the associated emergence of hazards (e.g. avalanches, floods, landslides). Sensors and platforms are becoming more bespoke, with innovation being driven by the commercial sector, and image repositories are more frequently open access, leading to the democratisation of data analysis and interpretation. Cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and machine learning are rapidly transforming our ability to handle this exponential increase in data. This review therefore provides a timely opportunity to synthesise current capabilities in remote sensing of the mountain cryosphere. Scientific and commercial applications were critically examined, recognising the technologies that have most advanced the discipline. Low-cost sensors can also be deployed in the field, using microprocessors and telecommunications equipment to connect mountain glaciers to stakeholders for real-time monitoring. The potential for novel automated pipelines that can process vast volumes of data is also discussed, from reimagining historical aerial imagery to produce elevation models, to automatically delineating glacier boundaries. Finally, the applications of these emerging techniques that will benefit scientific research avenues and real-world societal programmes are discussed.

Dam type and topological position govern ice-marginal lake area change in Alaska and NW Canada between 1984 and 2019

Ice-marginal lakes impact glacier mass balance, water resources, and ecosystem dynamics, and can produce catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) via sudden drainage. Multitemporal inventories of ice-marginal lakes are a critical first step in understanding the drivers of historic change, predicting future lake evolution, and assessing GLOF hazards. Here, we use Landsat-era satellite imagery and supervised classification to semi-automatically delineate lake outlines for four ~5 year time periods between 1984 and 2019 in Alaska and northwest Canada. Overall, ice-marginal lakes in the region have grown in total number (+176 lakes, 36 % increase) and area (+467 km2, 57 % increase) between the time periods of 1984–1988 and 2016–2019. However, changes in lake numbers and area were notably unsteady and nonuniform. We demonstrate that lake area changes are connected to dam type (moraine, bedrock, ice, or supraglacial) and topological position (proglacial, detached, unconnected, ice, or supraglacial), with important differences in lake behavior between the sub-groups. In strong contrast to all other dam types, ice-dammed lakes decreased in number (−9, 13 % decrease) and area (−56 km2, 43 % decrease), while moraine-dammed lakes increased (+59, 28 % and +468 km2, 85 % for number and area, respectively), a faster rate than the average when considering all dam types together. Proglacial lakes experienced the largest area changes and rate of change out of any topological position throughout the period of study. By tracking individual lakes through time and categorizing lakes by dam type, subregion, and topological position, we are able to parse trends that would otherwise be aliased if these characteristics were not considered. This work highlights the importance of such lake characterization when performing ice-marginal lake inventories, and provides insight into the physical processes driving recent ice-marginal lake evolution.

Holocene Lake Evolution and Glacial Fluctuations Indicated by Carbonate Minerals and Their Isotopic Compositions in the Sediments of a Glacial Melt Recharge Lake on the Northwestern Tibetan Plateau

Lakes and glaciers are widely distributed on the Tibetan Plateau and are linked via hydrological processes. They are experiencing rapid changes due to global warming, but their relationships during the Holocene are less well known due to limited coupled geological records. Here, we analyzed the δ13C-VPDB and δ18O-VPDB values and ion content of calcite and aragonite in a 407-cm-long sediment core from Guozha Co, a closed basin on the northwestern Tibetan Plateau supplied by glacial meltwater, in order to understand how the lake responded to glacier changes during the Holocene. Our results indicate that the glacial meltwater lowered the lake’s temperature and the δ18Olake water and δ18Oendogenic + authigenic carbonate values and diluted the ion concentrations in the lake water. Three stages of evolution, 8.7–4.0, 4.0–1.5, and 1.5 kyr BP to present, are distinguished based on the decrease in glacial meltwater recharge. Guozha Co has been a closed basin since at least 8.7 kyr BP, and it has changed from a fresh water lake during 8.7–1.5 kyr BP to a brackish lake from 1.5 kyr BP to present due to several climate events. The famous 4.2 kyr BP cold event was identified in the core at 4.0 kyr BP, while warm events occurred at 6.2, 3.9, 2.2, 0.9, and 0.4 kyr BP. Both glaciers and lakes in this area are controlled by climate, but they exhibit opposite changes, that is, glaciers retreat and lakes expand, and vice versa. Our results provide an accurate interpretation of the cold events based on carbonate minerals and carbon–oxygen isotopes in glacial meltwater–recharged lake sediments.

100 years of lake evolution over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Lakes can be effective indicators of climate change, and this is especially so for the lakes over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), the highest plateau in the world, which undergo little direct human influence. The QTP has warmed at twice as the mean global rate, and the lakes there respond rapidly to climate and cryosphere changes. The QTP has ~1200 lakes larger than 1 km2 with a total area of ~46000 km2, accounting for approximately half the number and area of lakes in China. The lakes over the QTP have been selected as an essential example for global lakes or water bodies studies. However, concerning lake data over the QTP are limited to the Landsat era and/or available at sparse intervals. Here, we extend the record to provide the comprehensive lake evolution data sets covering the past 100 years (from 1920 to 2020). Lake mapping in 1920 was derived from an early map of the Republic of China, and in 1960 from the topographic map of China. The densest lake inventories produced so far between 1970 and 2020 (covering all lakes larger than 1 km2 in 14 epochs) are mapped from Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+ and OLI images. The lake evolution shows remarkable transitions between four phases: significant shrinkage in 1920–1995, rapid linear increase in 1995–2010, relative stability in 2010–2015, and further increase in 2015–2020. The spatial pattern indicates that the majority of lakes shrank in 1920–1995, and expanded in 1995–2020, with a dominant enlargement for central-north lakes in contrast to contraction for southern lakes in 1976–2020. The time series of precipitation between 1920 and 2017 indirectly supports the evolution trends of lakes identified in this study. The lake data set is freely available at http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4678104 (Zhang et al., 2021).