Paleo-earthquake Evidence and Earthquake Recurrence for Düzce Fault, Turkey

Paleoseismological trenching was performed along the Düzce fault providing some preliminary insight about its seismogenic behavior. Dating was based on radiocarbon analysis of peat samples collected from the trenches and suggested seven earthquakes have occurred since 1740 BC. Integrating date constraints of events exposed in the trenches suggests a periodical earthquake recurrence model. According to a linear sequential event serial that has minimum misfit determined by considering the probability curve limits of the sample dates, the earthquake recurrence interval is between 384 and 460 years (or possibly between AD 394 and 400). A probability curve was also calculated for the date of the last earthquake (1999 Düzce earthquake) considering the probability distributions of sample dates based on the same event serial. This probability-distribution-based method, similarly, predicted that the 1999 Düzce earthquake occurred between 1933–2005 (± 36 years) with a 68 % probability. After this verification. Using this method, it was estimated that the next earthquake along the Düzce fault has a 68 % probability of occurring between 2328–2392. According to this calculation, the earthquake recurrence interval is about 391 ± 34 years with a 68 % probability and the AD 967 historical earthquake likely ruptured the Düzce fault. Assuming an average slip of 350 cm (the average slip of the 1999 earthquake), the slip rate was estimated to be between 8.7–11.2 mm/a.

A method for transformation from dynamic fault tree to binary decision diagram

Dynamic fault tree (DFT) is a powerful modeling approach for reliability analysis of complex system with dynamic failure behaviors. In reality, the tree structure may be highly coupled either by shared basic events or by the high-level dynamic gates. Currently, the application of sequential binary decision diagram (SBDD)-based method for quantitative analysis of such highly coupled DFTs is mainly limited to DFTs whose dynamic gates locate in the bottom of the tree. Moreover, there is no efficient way dealing with the dependencies among different nodes of a SBDD 1-path. This paper makes an improvement to the SBDD-based approach. A generation procedure is proposed to directly construct the binary decision diagram (BDD) model for a DFT with arbitrary tree structure. During the construction, the sequential-dependent information of the tree is derived as several BDD nodes, each indicates a binary-sequential event representing the sequence of two occurred basic events. A topological sorting is applied on each 1-path of the resultant BDD to obtain its contained disjoint cut sequences. Based on this, both qualitative and quantitative analysis can be performed on the DFT with no limitations on tree structure, and its minimal cut sequence set (CSS) is obtained as disjoint. Examples are provided for verification and comparison, and the results illustrate the merits of the proposed approach.

PEMETAAN DAERAH RAWAN KEBAKARAN DI LAHAN GAMBUT BERDASARKAN POLA SEKUENS TITIK PANAS DI KABUPATEN PULANG PISAU KALIMANTAN TENGAH

Land and forest fire is one of the major that caused Indonesia’s deforestation, who has a significant impact to the environment, loss of conservation, air pollution and economic loss. This research makes a spatial modelling along with factor that can affect collerates the forest fire. Spatial model of vulnerability of land and forest fire is built by composite mapping analysis method. Hotspot that is used in this research is the results of data mining processing, with sequential pattern mining technique which to find the relationships between the occurances of sequential event and pattern that often appear. From the six variables that influence land and forest fire there are four variables that impacts on the study area, that is forest zone, depth of peatland, distance of irrigation, and distance of road. The fire in the area of study occurs many times in the peatland area with the depth of 400-800 cm. Land and forest fire occurs frequently in 100-900 meters from irrigation and land and forest fire also occurs frequently in 1-4 km form the road. Land and forest fire occurs frequently in protected forest

Does pre-planning explain why predictability affects reference production?

How does thematic role predictability affect reference production? This study tests a planning facilitation hypothesis – that the predictability effect on reference form can be explained in terms of the time course of utterance planning. In a discourse production task, participants viewed two sequential event pictures, listened to a description of the first picture (depicting a transfer event between two characters), and then provided a description of the second picture (continuing with one thematic role character, either goal or source). We replicated previous findings that goal continuations lead to more reduced forms of reference and shorter latency to begin speaking than source continuations. Additionally, we tracked speakers’ eye movements in two periods of utterance planning, early vs. late. We found that 1) early pre-planning supports the use of reduced forms but is not affected by thematic role; 2) thematic role only affects late planning; and 3) in contrast with our hypothesis, planning does not account for predictability effects on reduced forms. We then speculate that discourse connectedness drives the thematic role predictability effect on reference form choice.

Industrial Capitalism and Its Paradoxes in Europe XVIII – XIX Century

Until the mid-eighteenth century the world economy was slowly evolving, but after the 1750-s a radical change occurred, which had a huge impact not only on the economy, but also on culture, society and life in general. The industrial revolution became the main lever of change. As a result, its main economic component - agriculture - has ceased to be dominant. Traditionally, the industrial revolution was seen as a sequential event, a chain of events from the lowest to the highest. The author made an attempt to consider the main parameters of the industrial revolution as a chain of paradoxes characteristic of developed European countries. To do this, turning to classical works of a theoretical and scientific-practical nature, the authors tried to consider the problem of European countries entering the industrial stage as a complex, contradictory and difficult process that revealed both leaders and Laggards.

Does planning explain why predictability affects reference production?

How does thematic role predictability affect reference production? This study tests a planning facilitation hypothesis – that the predictability effect on reference form can be explained in terms of the time course of utterance planning. In a discourse production task, participants viewed two sequential event pictures, listened to a description of the first picture (depicting a transfer event between two characters), and then provided a description of the second picture (continuing with one thematic role character, either goal or source). We replicated previous findings that goal continuations lead to more reduced forms of reference and shorter latency to begin speaking than source continuations. Additionally, we tracked speakers’ eye movements in two periods of utterance planning, early vs. late. We found that 1) early pre-planning supports the use of reduced forms but is not affected by thematic role; 2) thematic role only affects late planning; and 3) in contrast with our hypothesis, planning does not account for predictability effects on reduced forms. We then speculate that discourse connectedness drives the thematic role predictability effect on reference form choice.

STRUKTUR DAN FUNGSI SOSIAL CERITA RAKYAT LEGENDA SETEMPAT PINCURAN TUJUAH DI NAGARI KOTO TANGAH SIMALONGGANG DESA KAPALO KOTO KECAMATAN PAYAKUMBUH KABUPATEN LIMA PULUH KOTA

This study aimed to describe: (1) the structure of folklore in local legend Pincuran Tujuah in Nagari Koto Tangah Simalonggang Village Kapalo Koto Kecamatan Payakumbuah Kabupaten Lima Puluh Kota, (2) social function of Folklore Legend Pincuran Tujuah. The type of research was qualitative research used descriptive method. Data were collected through interviews, observations, and recording of interviews with informants in Nagari Koto Tangah Simalonggang Kapalo Koto Village Payakumbuah Subdistrict, Lima Puluh Kota District. Based on the result of research, it is concluded the following things. First, Folklore Structure Legend Locally Pincuran Tujuah includes: (a) Characterization, consists of four characters, namely the main character and sideline. The main character is emak Gendong known as the person who has a patient and hard heart and while the side character is two children emak Gendong and neighbors who have a sense of jealousy to emak Gendong (b) Plot, the plot of legend Pincuran Tujuah is conventional groove, because a sequential event through regular causal relationships from the introduction of background, the main character, the entry into conflicts, and the ending of the story. (c) Background, this research is carried out in Nagari Koto Tangah Simalonggang Kapalo Koto Village Payakumbuah Subdistrict of Lima Puluh Kota Regency, and also there are also (d) Style of Language and (e) Less point of view is depicted in this legend story. Second, the social function of local folklore Pincuran Tujuah legend is as a function of educating, bequeath, identity, and tradition.Keywords: Folkore, Structure of Folklore, Social Function