Influential Nodes in the OBOR Fossil Energy Trade Network Based on D-S Theory: Detection and Evolution Analysis

The structure formed by fossil energy trade among countries can be divided into multiple subcommodity networks. However, the difference of coupling mode and transmission mechanism between layers of the multirelationship network will affect the measurement of node importance. In this paper, a framework of multisource information fusion by considering data uncertainty and the classical network centrality measures is build. Then, the evidential centrality (EVC) indicator is proposed, by integrating Dempster–Shafer evidence theory and network theory, to empirically identify influential nodes of fossil energy trade along the Belt and Road Initiative. The initial result of the heterogeneity characteristics of the constructed network drives us to explore the core node issue further. The main detected evidential nodes include Russia, Kazakhstan, Czechia, Slovakia, Egypt, Romania, China, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore, which also have higher impact on network efficiency. In addition, cluster analysis discovered that resource endowment is an essential factor influencing country’s position, followed by geographical distance, economic level, and economic growth potential. Therefore, the above aspects should be considered when ensuring national trade security. At last, the rationality and comprehensiveness of EVC are verified by comparing with some benchmark centralities.

A novel multi-information decision fusion based on improved random forests in HVCB fault detection application

Evaluating the mechanical state of high-voltage circuit breakers (HVCBs) based on vibration information has currently become an important research direction. In contrast to the unicity of the travel–time and current–time curves, the vibration information from the different positions is diverse. These differences are often overlooked in HVCB fault identification applications. Additionally, the fault recognition results based on different location information often vary, and conflicting diagnosis results directly cause the accurate identification of the fault type to fail. Therefore, in this paper, a novel multi-information decision fusion approach is proposed based on the improved random forest (RF) and Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. In the proposed method, the diagnostic distribution of all classification regression trees (CART) in the RF is considered to solve the conflicts among the multi-information diagnosis results. Experimental results show that the proposed method eases the contradiction of multi-position diagnostic results and improves the accuracy of fault identification. Furthermore, compared to the common classifiers and probability generation methods, the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method are verified.

An Evidence Combination Rule Based on New Weight Assignment Scheme

Conflicting evidence and fuzzy evidence have a significant impact on the results of evidence combination in the application of evidence theory. However, the existing weight assignment methods can hardly reflect the significant influence of fuzzy evidence on the combination results. Therefore, a new method for assigning evidence weights and the corresponding combination rule are proposed. The proposed weight assignment method strengthens the consideration of fuzzy evidence and introduces the Wasserstein distance to compute the clarity degree of evidence which is an important reference index for weight assignment in the proposed combination rule and can weaken the effect of ambiguous evidence effectively. In the experiments, it's firstly verified that the impact of fuzzy evidence on the combination results is significant; therefore it should be fully considered in the weight assignment process. Then, the proposed combination rule with new weight assignment method is tested on a set of numerical arithmetic and Iris datasets. Compared with four existing methods, the results show that the proposed method has higher decision accuracy, F1 score, better computational convergence, and more reliable fusion results as well.

A scenario analysis under epistemic uncertainty in Natech accidents: imprecise probability reasoning in Bayesian Network

The increasing frequency and severity of Natech accidents warn us to investigate the occurrence mechanism of these events. Cascading disasters chain magnifies the impact of natural hazards due to its propagation through critical infrastructures and socio-economic networks. In order to manipulate imprecise probabilities of cascading events in Natech scenarios, this work proposes an improved Bayesian network （BN） combining with evidence theory to better deal with epistemic uncertainty in Natech accidents than traditional BNs. Effective inference algorithms have been developed to propagate system faulty in a socio-economic system. The conditional probability table (CPT) of BN in the traditional probability approach is modified by utilizing an OR/AND gate to obtain the belief mass propagation in the framework of evidence theory. Our improved Bayesian network methodology makes it possible to assess the impact and damage of Natech accidents under the environment of complex interdependence among accidents with insufficient data. Finally, a case study of Guangdong province, an area prone to natural disasters, is given. The modified Bayesian network is carried out to analyze this area’s Natech scenario. After diagnostic analysis and sensitivity analysis of human factors and the natural factor, we are able to locate the key nodes in the cascading disaster chain. Findings can provide useful theoretical support for urban managers of industrial cities to enhance disaster prevention and mitigation ability.