Analyzing Uncertainty in Release Planning: A Method and Experiment for Fixed-Date Release Cycles

Release planning—deciding what features to implement in upcoming releases of a software system—is a critical activity in iterative software development. Many release planning methods exist, but most ignore the inevitable uncertainty in estimating software development effort and business value. The article’s objective is to study whether analyzing uncertainty during release planning generates better release plans than if uncertainty is ignored. To study this question, we have developed a novel release planning method under uncertainty, called BEARS, that models uncertainty using Bayesian probability distributions and recommends release plans that maximize expected net present value and expected punctuality. We then compare release plans recommended by BEARS to those recommended by methods that ignore uncertainty on 32 release planning problems. The experiment shows that BEARS recommends release plans with higher expected net present value and expected punctuality than methods that ignore uncertainty, thereby indicating the harmful effects of ignoring uncertainty during release planning. These results highlight the importance of eliciting and analyzing uncertainty in software effort and value estimations and call for increased research in these areas.

Delaying Intraoral Radiographs during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Conundrum

Background. The COVID-19 pandemic has made dentists very assiduous about cross-infection during dental treatment, thereby delaying dental radiographs for treatment. However, patients needing dental emergency treatment in the ongoing pandemic require relevant intra/extraoral dental radiography for adequate diagnosis and treatment planning. Methods. This article is aimed at adding to the hot debate: Is delay for intraoral radiographs justified or a possible proxy? As a narrative review, it provides an insight into the reasons for delaying intra-oral dental radiographs during in the pandemic and options of the nontraditional radiographic techniques available until the pandemic subsides. Discussion and Conclusion. Cross-contamination concerns through respiratory droplets grow while using intraoral film holders that stimulate gag reflex, coughing, saliva secretion, and if proper disinfection protocols are not applied. Since the patients’ acquiring emergency dental treatment cannot be neglected, the return-to-work guidelines by the health regulatory bodies urge to prioritize extraoral radiographic imaging techniques to curb the infection, offering the best diagnostic efficacy. The dental professionals can consider cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans and sectional dental panoramic radiographs (SDPRs), followed by a risk assessment for COVID-19, a safer modality in reducing cross-contamination and assuring an innocuous environment for both patient and coworkers.

Reference Class Forecasting and Machine Learning for Improved Offshore Oil and Gas Megaproject Planning: Methods and Application

This article develops and describes rigorous oil and gas project forecasting methods. First, it builds a theoretical foundation by mapping megaproject performance literature to these projects. Second, it draws on heuristics and biases literature, using a questionnaire to demonstrate forecasting-related biases and principal-agent issues among industry project professionals. Third, it uses methodically collected project performance data to demonstrate that overrun distributions are non-normal and fat-tailed. Fourth, reference-class forecasting is demonstrated for cost and schedule uplifts. Finally, a predictive approach using machine learning (ML) considers project-specific factors to forecast the most likely cost and schedule overruns in a project.

Exploring the Impacts of the Beginning of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Critical Care Physicians and the Delivery of Patient Care in Seven Countries: A Qualitative Interview-Based Study

Purpose To understand critical care physician experiences across multiple countries with the COVID-19 pandemic to inform future pandemic preparedness planning. Methods In this qualitative study, 16 critical care physicians (from seven countries) identified in convenience, purposive sampling took part in individual semi-structured interviews from April 7, 2020 to August 27, 2020 that captured the first wave of the pandemic. Open coding was conducted by two researchers who facilitated inductive thematic analysis. Results Key themes identified following thematic analysis included: 1) sourcing and implementation of trusted information; 2) health systems-level preparedness with accessible supports; 3) institutional adaptations including changes to patient care; 4) professional safety and occupational wellbeing; 5) triage and restricted visitation policies; and 6) managing personal familial responsibilities. Conclusion Perspectives of critical care physicians are important for ongoing pandemic planning and should be included in future pandemic policy development.

Explaining Resident Medical Students’ Experiences of Performance During COVID-19: A Qualitative Study

Background: The COVID-19 crisis has created many problems, including a negative impact on student education. Objectives: The study aimed to understand the resident medical students' performance experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic, which is essential for future planning. Methods: The present qualitative study was performed on 15 resident medical students in Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Iran, from September to November 2020. Data were analyzed using conventional content analysis. Results: Analysis of the meaning units of interviews showed four categories describing the resident students' experiences of performance during COVID-19 as follows: Fear and anxiety, the need for support, the sense of responsibility, and the lack of educational facilities. Conclusions: The present study showed that the COVID-19 pandemic had posed incredible new challenges for resident students. Assessing the mental health of residents, providing adequate protective equipment, and support from authorities and community members can create empathy, reduce the feeling of fear, and increase their accompaniment with pandemic managing programs. Due to the problems created in the training of residents during the pandemic, it seems necessary to propose rehabilitation courses to improve the training program for residents in various fields.

Charging Station Planning for Electric Vehicles

Charging station (CS) planning for electric vehicles (EVs) for a region has become an important concern for urban planners and the public alike to improve the adoption of EVs. Two major problems comprising this research area are: (i) the EV charging station placement (EVCSP) problem, and (ii) the CS need estimation problem for a region. In this work, different explainable solutions based on machine learning (ML) and simulation were investigated by incorporating quantitative and qualitative metrics. The solutions were compared with traditional approaches using a real CS area of Austin and a greenfield area of Bengaluru. For EVCSP, a different class of clustering solutions, i.e., mean-based, density-based, spectrum- or eigenvalues-based, and Gaussian distribution were evaluated. Different perspectives, such as the urban planner perspective, i.e., the clustering efficiency, and the EV owner perspective, i.e., an acceptable distance to the nearest CS, were considered. For the CS need estimation, ML solutions based on quadratic regression and simulations were evaluated. Using our CS planning methods urban planners can make better CS placement decisions and can estimate CS needs for the present and the future.

“Impact on Family Planning Services in Primary Healthcare Facilities in Rural Sindh – Secondary Data Analysis of Pre- and on-going COVID-19 Crisis Period”

The current COVID-19 pandemic has devastated the improvements in family planning services during the past years. This study assessed the impact of the global pandemic that compromised the provision of family planning services in primary healthcare facilities in Sindh – Pakistan. A retrospective data from District Health Information System (DHIS) before Covid-19 (January – February 2020) and during Covid-19 (March – June 2020) was extracted on the provision of family planning services in primary healthcare facilities in Sindh. The study was conducted to understand the impact of service provision through time-series trend analysis by comparing two health facilities i.e., BHUs and BHU plus facilities on monthly average visits (Jan-Feb average) and differences in percentage change over time on the uptake of short and long-acting family planning methods. The findings suggested that due to lockdown and restrictive mobility, the family planning services have fallen drastically in terms of clients visit the health facility from the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak in the month of March 2020 and remain stagnant till June 2020 as compare to before COVID-19 period. The overall analysis revealed the largest decay in the uptake of family planning methods specifically, pills with 31% and 26% during April 2020 in BHU and BHU plus facilities. On the contrary, uptake of Implants showed 25% and 23% decline in the month of June and May in BHU and BHU plus facilities respectively, compared to the average percentage of the pre-COVID Period. The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected the provision of family planning services and steeply decreased the uptake of Pills and Implants in primary healthcare facilities in Sindh. On the contrary, the disruption and decrease in services have provided an opportunity to undertake further research exploration to develop future strategies and policies to combat health challenging situations in such pandemics.

“Impact on Family Planning Services in Primary Healthcare Facilities in Rural Sindh – Secondary Data Analysis of Pre- and on-going COVID-19 Crisis Period”

The current COVID-19 pandemic has devastated the improvements in family planning services during the past years. This study assessed the impact of the global pandemic that compromised the provision of family planning services in primary healthcare facilities in Sindh – Pakistan. A retrospective data from District Health Information System (DHIS) before Covid-19 (January – February 2020) and during Covid-19 (March – June 2020) was extracted on the provision of family planning services in primary healthcare facilities in Sindh. The study was conducted to understand the impact of service provision through time-series trend analysis by comparing two health facilities i.e., BHUs and BHU plus facilities on monthly average visits (Jan-Feb average) and differences in percentage change over time on the uptake of short and long-acting family planning methods. The findings suggested that due to lockdown and restrictive mobility, the family planning services have fallen drastically in terms of clients visit the health facility from the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak in the month of March 2020 and remain stagnant till June 2020 as compare to before COVID-19 period. The overall analysis revealed the largest decay in the uptake of family planning methods specifically, pills with 31% and 26% during April 2020 in BHU and BHU plus facilities. On the contrary, uptake of Implants showed 25% and 23% decline in the month of June and May in BHU and BHU plus facilities respectively, compared to the average percentage of the pre-COVID Period. The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected the provision of family planning services and steeply decreased the uptake of Pills and Implants in primary healthcare facilities in Sindh. On the contrary, the disruption and decrease in services have provided an opportunity to undertake further research exploration to develop future strategies and policies to combat health challenging situations in such pandemics.

Knowledge, Attitude and Practice of Family Planning Among the Currently Married Women of Reproductive Age of Shivasatakshi Municipality Jhapa District, Nepal

This study examines the Knowledge, Attitude and Practice of Family Planning among the Currently Married Women of Reproductive Age (15-49 Years); a case study of Shivasatakshi Municipaity Jhapa district is based on primary data successfully collected from sample survey, covering 100 sample respondents` from 100 sample households. The main objective of the study is to fine out the knowledge, attitude and practice of family planning methods among currently married women of reproductive age group (15-49 years) and the specific objective of the study are to study the socio-economic and demographic determinants of currently use of family planning method and to identify the reason the reason for use and non-use of family planning. Out of 100 sample respondents 83 percent women are literate and 17 percent are illiterate. The major occupations of the respondents are agriculture and services. Among currently married women, 99 percent of respondents are found to be familiar with at least one family planning method. Out of total respondents, 91 percents are ever uses and 92 percent are currently using family planning methods. There is strongly positive relationship existed between use of family planning method and socio-economic and demographic variables like educational status of women and number pf living children. Easily accessible and no side effect are main reasons for using family planning method. Desire for and husband and family’s disagreement are most important reason for not using family planning method.

Soviet Planning: What and Why Is Relevant in the XXI Century

Planning has become widespread in countries with different socio-economic systems. At the same time, both the evaluation of the results of using planned methods and these planned methods themselves have significant differences. They depend both on the features of the socio-economic systems in which planning was applied, and on the tasks that it solved. To study these dependencies, it is useful to turn to the experience of planning in the USSR, which demonstrates different options for using planning methods. During the years of the new economic policy, planning functioned in the conditions of a broad development of market and capitalist relations. Therefore, the planning methods were adapted to the market conditions. The planning itself was mainly indicative, and the achievement of planned results was built by influencing the economic interests of economic entities. Therefore, it is possible to find a significant similarity in the model of Soviet planning during the years of the new economic policy and those planning methods that were used in the post-war period in Europe, Japan, and then in the new industrial countries. The model of directive planning, which was developed in the USSR in the 1930s of the twentieth century, provided both certain advantages in the development of the economy (the mobilization and concentration of significant masses of resources for deep structural changes in the economy, the implementation of large scientific, technical and social projects), and was burdened with serious contradictions. The Soviet model of directive planning did not have effective institutions that expressed the economic interests of enterprises and their collectives, did not create incentives for technical re-equipment of existing enterprises, and ultimately led to the predominance of the interests of the top government departments. To prevent the development of such contradictions, one-sided reflection of the interests of narrow social groups, the planned system should be built on democratic grounds.