Effects of age, period, and birth cohort on homicide mortality in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, from 1996 to 2015

Although São Paulo is the most populous city in Brazil - one of the world’s most violent countries - a significant reduction in its homicide mortality rate (HMR) has been detected. This study aims to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the trend of homicide mortality according to sex in the city of São Paulo, from 1996 to 2015. An ecological study was undertaken with data on deaths by homicide for both sexes, in all age brackets, in the city of São Paulo. Poisson models were adjusted for each sex to estimate the age-period-cohort effects. In total, 61,833 deaths by homicide were recorded among males and 5,109 among females. Regardless of the period, the highest HMR occurred in the 20-24 age bracket. Higher HMRs were found in those born in the 1970s and 1980s. The complete model, with age-period-cohort effects, were the best fit to the data. The risk of death by homicide declined over the periods, with lower intensity in the final five years (2011-2015), for both males (RR = 0.48; 95%CI: 0.46; 0.49) and females (RR = 0.52; 95%CI: 0.47; 0.57). A reduction was found in the risk of homicide, regardless of the sex or age bracket, and also in recent cohorts. However, the intensity of such reductions has been decreasing over time, which suggests that the public policies adopted have limited potential to maintain these achievements.

Temporal evolution of homicide mortality in Brazilian capitals from 2005 to 2019

Purpose This study aims to improve our understanding of violence, focusing on the analysis of the relation between socioeconomic factors and homicide rates from 2005 to 2019 in Brazilian capitals. Design/methodology/approach Multilevel Poisson models were used to estimate the homicide risk in men and women. The response variable was the homicide rate. Fixed effects were estimated for age group, year and gross domestic product (GDP). Findings The average homicide rate over the 2005–2019 period was 5.83/100,000 and 83.72/100,000 for women and men, respectively. In both sexes, the homicide rates increased over the period. The highest mortality rates were observed in North and Northeastern capitals. The peak homicide rates were 2010–2014, the risk of homicide decreased as age increased, and the capitals with GDP lower than US$5,000 showed a greater homicide rate. Originality/value Brazil remains among the countries with the highest risk of homicide, especially in the north and northeast regions, where socioeconomic conditions are more unfavorable. The improvement of socioeconomic conditions may contribute to changing this situation.

The role of artificial photo backgrounds of shelter dogs on pet profile clicking and the perception of sociability

With the increasing prevalence of technology, the internet is often the first step for potential pet owners searching for an adoptable dog. However, best practices for the online portrayal of shelter and foster dogs remain unclear. Different online photo backgrounds appearing on adoption websites for shelter dogs may impact adoption speed by influencing viewer interest. Online clicking behaviour on pet profiles and human-directed sociability, broadly defined, has been previously linked to increased adoption likelihood. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine the relationship between photo backgrounds of shelter dogs and online clicking as well as perceived human-directed sociability. In a virtual experiment, 680 participants were asked to rank the sociability and friendliness of four different adoptable dogs on a scale from 0–10. The photo background of each dog was digitally altered and randomly assigned to four experimental background conditions: 1) outdoor, 2) home indoor, 3) in-kennel, and 4) plain coloured. As a proxy for adoption interest, a link to the dog’s adoption profile was presented on each slide and the clicking behaviour of participants on this link was recorded. Mixed logistic regression and Poisson models revealed that background did not affect participants’ link-clicking behaviour (chisq = 3.55, df = 3, p = .314) nor perceptions of sociability (statistic = 6.19, df = 3, p = .103). Across all backgrounds, only 4.74% of presented slides culminated in participant link-clicking. Sociability scores also did not predict link clicking. Assessment of participant-related factors and dog ID revealed that link-clicking and sociability scores of photographs were influenced by differences between dogs themselves and unaffected by participants’ awareness of study hypotheses. We conclude that artificial background types did not affect participant responses. The results demonstrate the importance of empirical data in making marketing decisions in animal shelters. Understanding which aspects of online marketing materials impact viewer interest will provide guidance for both animal shelter personnel and foster families to improve the speed of adoption of the animals in their care.

Communicating across educational boundaries: accommodation patterns in adolescents’ online interactions

This paper studies linguistic accommodation patterns in a large corpus of private online conversations produced by Flemish secondary school students. We use Poisson models to examine whether the teenagers adjust their writing style depending on their interlocutor’s educational profile, while also taking into account the extent to which these adaptation patterns are influenced by the authors’ own educational background or by other aspects of their socio-demographic profiles. The corpus does reveal accommodation patterns, but the adjustments do not always mirror variation patterns related to educational profiles. While salient features like expressive markers seem to lead to pattern-matching, less salient features appear less prone to ‘adequate’ adjustment. Lack of familiarity with the online behavior of students from other educational tracks is a factor too, since online communication clearly proceeds primarily within ‘same-education’ networks. The focus on cross-educational communication is quite unique in this respect and highly relevant from a sociological perspective.

Delayed follow-up visits and Thyroid-Stimulating Hormone among patients with levothyroxine during the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction The indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on clinical practice have received great attention, but evidence regarding thyroid disease management is lacking. We aimed to investigate the association between delayed follow-up visits during the pandemic and their serum thyrotropin (TSH) levels among patients being treated with levothyroxine. Methods This study included 25,361 patients who made a follow-up visit as scheduled (n=9,063) or a delayed follow-up visit (<30 days, n=10,909; ≥30 days, n=5,389) during the pandemic (after April 2020) in Japan. We employed modified Poisson models to estimate the adjusted risk ratio (aRR) of TSH >4.5 and >10 mIU/L during the pandemic according to the three types of follow-up visit group (i.e., as scheduled, delayed <30 days, and delayed ≥30 days). The models included age, sex, city of residence, TSH levels, underlying thyroid disease, dose of levothyroxine, and duration of levothyroxine prescriptions. Results The mean age was 52.8 years and females were 88%. Patients who were older and had a higher dose or longer duration of levothyroxine prescriptions were more likely to make a delayed follow-up visit during the pandemic. Changes in TSH were larger among the delayed visit groups than the scheduled visit group. We found increased risks of elevated TSH levels during the pandemic among the delayed visit groups, particularly those with delayed visit ≥30 days (TSH >4.5 mIU/L, aRR [95% CI] =1.72 [1.60-1.85]; and TSH >10 mIU/L, aRR [95% CI] =2.38 [2.16-2.62]). Conclusion A delayed follow-up visit during the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with less well-controlled TSH among patients with levothyroxine.

Prevalence of microcephaly: the Latin American Network of Congenital Malformations 2010–2017

ObjectiveThe Latin American Network of Congenital Malformations: ReLAMC was established in 2017 to provide accurate congenital anomaly surveillance. This study used data from ReLAMC registries to quantify the prevalence of microcephaly from 2010 to 2017 (before, during and after the Zika virus epidemic).DesignNine ReLAMC congenital anomaly registries provided case-level data or aggregate data for any live births, still births or terminations of pregnancy with microcephaly. Births to pregnant women infected with Zika virus first occurred in Brazil in 2015, and in the remaining registry areas in 2016 with the exception of Chile that did not experience Zika virus. Therefore the prevalence of microcephaly for 2010–2014 and individual years 2015, 2016 and 2017 was estimated using multilevel random effect Poisson models. Clinical classification and characteristics of the cases were compared pre and post Zika for all centres providing individual case-level data.ResultsThe prevalence of microcephaly for all registries excluding Brazil was 2.3 per 10 000 (95% CI 2.0 to 2.6) for 2010–2014 rising to 5.4 (95% CI 4.8 to 6.0) in 2016 and 5.9 (95% CI 5.3 to 6.6) in 2017. Brazil had a prevalence of 0.6 per 10 000 (95% CI 0.5 to 0.6) in 2010–2014, rising to 5.8 (95% CI 5.6 to 6.1) in 2015, 8.0 (95% CI 7.6 to 8.3) in 2016 and then falling in 2017. Only 29 out of 687 cases of microcephaly were reported as congenital Zika syndrome in countries excluding Brazil.ConclusionsThe prevalence of microcephaly was influenced both by Zika causing congenital Zika syndrome and by increased reporting awareness.

Epidemiology and Trends over Time of Foreign Body Injuries in the Pediatric Emergency Department

This paper presents the epidemiology of foreign body injuries in the Pediatric Emergency Department (PED) of Padova (Italy) along with its trends over an eleven-year period based on administrative data. Annual incidence rates (IRs) of PED presentations for foreign body (FB) injuries per 1000 person-years were calculated. Univariable and multivariable generalized linear (GLM) Poisson models were estimated to evaluate the relationship between FB injury incidence and year, triage priority, nationality, injury site, and FB type. During the study period, there were 217,900 presentations of pediatric residents in the province of Padova; of these, 3084 (1.5%) reported FB injuries involving the ears, nose, throat, gastrointestinal tract or eyes. The annual IR of FB injury episodes increased from 10.45 for 1000 residents in 2007 (95% CI, 9.24, 11.77) to 12.66 for 1000 residents in 2018 (95% CI, 11.35, 14.08). Nonfood items were the FBs that were most frequently reported. The intermediate urgent triage code was the most represented for FB injuries, with IRs ranging from 5.44 (95% CI: 4.59, 6.40) in 2008 to 8.56 in 2018 (95% CI: 7.50, 9.74). A total of 170 patients who presented for FB injuries were hospitalized (5.5%). The annual FB-related injury IR has increased over time, although most episodes are not life threatening. Educational and prevention programs on FB-related injuries should be promoted and dedicated to childcare providers.

Connecting Families to Food Resources amid the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Sectional Survey of Early Care and Education Providers in Two U.S. States

Early care and education (ECE) settings are important avenues for reaching young children and their families with food and nutrition resources, including through the U.S. federally funded Child and Adult Care Food Program (CACFP). Researchers conducted a cross-sectional survey of ECE providers in two U.S. states in November 2020 to identify approaches used to connect families with food and nutrition resources amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Logistic regression models were used to estimate odds of sites reporting no approaches and adjusted Poisson models were used to estimate the incidence rate ratio of the mean number of approaches, comparing sites that participate in CACFP to those that did not. A total of 589 ECE sites provided responses. Of those, 43% (n = 255) participated in CACFP. CACFP participating sites were more likely to report using any approaches to connecting families to food resources and significantly more likely to report offering “grab and go” meals, providing meal delivery, distributing food boxes to families, and recommending community food resources than non-CACFP sites. This study suggests that CACFP sites may have greater capacity to connect families to food resources amid emergencies than non-CACFP participating sites.