A Simple Out-of-Sample Test of Predictability against the Random Walk Benchmark

We show that a straightforward modification of a trading-based test for predictability displays interesting advantages over the Excess Profitability (EP) test proposed by Anatolyev and Gerco when testing the Driftless Random Walk Hypothesis. Our statistic is called the Straightforward Excess Profitability (SEP) test, and it avoids the calculation of a term that under the null of no predictability should be zero but in practice may be sizable. In addition, our test does not require the strong assumption of independence used to derive the EP test. We claim that dependence is the rule and not the exception. We show via Monte Carlo simulations that the SEP test outperforms the EP test in terms of size and power. Finally, we illustrate the use of our test in an empirical application within the context of the commodity-currencies literature.

Tumor Hypoxia Heterogeneity Affects Radiotherapy: Inverse-Percolation Shell-Model Monte Carlo Simulations

Tumor hypoxia was discovered a century ago, and the interference of hypoxia with all radiotherapies is well known. Here, we demonstrate the potentially extreme effects of hypoxia heterogeneity on radiotherapy and combination radiochemotherapy. We observe that there is a decrease in hypoxia from tumor periphery to tumor center, due to oxygen diffusion, resulting in a gradient of radiative cell-kill probability, mathematically expressed as a probability gradient of occupied space removal. The radiotherapy-induced break-up of the tumor/TME network is modeled by the physics model of inverse percolation in a shell-like medium, using Monte Carlo simulations. The different shells now have different probabilities of space removal, spanning from higher probability in the periphery to lower probability in the center of the tumor. Mathematical results regarding the variability of the critical percolation concentration show an increase in the critical threshold with the applied increase in the probability of space removal. Such an observation will have an important medical implication: a much larger than expected radiation dose is needed for a tumor breakup enabling successful follow-up chemotherapy. Information on the TME’s hypoxia heterogeneity, as shown here with the numerical percolation model, may enable personalized precision radiation oncology therapy.

Status of the Design of an Annihilation Detector to Observe Neutron-Antineutron Conversions at the European Spallation Source

The goal of the HIBEAM/NNBAR program is to search for baryon number violation via the conversion or oscillation of neutrons into sterile neutrons and/or antineutrons at the European Spallation Source. A key experimental component of the program is the construction of an annihilation detector to directly observe the production of an antineutron following the oscillation. Design studies for the annihilation detector are presented. The predicted response of the detector models are studied using Geant4 simulations made with Monte Carlo simulations of the annihilation signal topology and cosmic ray backgrounds. Particle identification and sensitive discriminating observables, such as invariant mass and sphericity, are shown.

Effects of homophily and heterophily on preferred-degree networks: mean-field analysis and overwhelming transition

We investigate the long-time properties of a dynamic, out-of-equilibrium network of individuals holding one of two opinions in a population consisting of two communities of different sizes. Here, while the agents’ opinions are fixed, they have a preferred degree which leads them to endlessly create and delete links. Our evolving network is shaped by homophily/heterophily, a form of social interaction by which individuals tend to establish links with others having similar/dissimilar opinions. Using Monte Carlo simulations and a detailed mean-field analysis, we investigate how the sizes of the communities and the degree of homophily/heterophily affect the network structure. In particular, we show that when the network is subject to enough heterophily, an ‘overwhelming transition’ occurs: individuals of the smaller community are overwhelmed by links from the larger group, and their mean degree greatly exceeds the preferred degree. This and related phenomena are characterized by the network’s total and joint degree distributions, as well as the fraction of links across both communities and that of agents having fewer edges than the preferred degree. We use our mean-field theory to discuss the network’s polarization when the group sizes and level of homophily vary.

Electron correlation effects in boron clusters BnQ (for Q=-1,0, 1 and n ≤13) based on quantum Monte Carlo simulations

We present all-electron quantum Monte Carlo simulations on the anionic, neutral, and cationic boron clusters BnQ with up to 13 atoms (Q=-1,0,+1 and n≤ 13). Accurate total energies of these...

Colloidal membranes of chiral rod-like particles

We study colloidal (or smectic) membranes composed of chiral rod-like particles through Monte Carlo simulations. These objects are formed due to the presence of Asakura-Oosawa spheres acting as depletants and...