Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) FluxByCldTyp Edition 4 Data Product

The Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has provided the climate community 20 years of globally observed top of the atmosphere (TOA) fluxes critical for climate and cloud feedback studies. The CERES Flux By Cloud Type (FBCT) product contains radiative fluxes by cloud-type, which can provide more stringent constraints when validating models and also reveal more insight into the interactions between clouds and climate. The FBCT product provides 1° regional daily and monthly shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) cloud-type fluxes and cloud properties sorted by 7 pressure layers and 6 optical depth bins. Historically, cloud-type fluxes have been computed using radiative transfer models based on observed cloud properties. Instead of relying on radiative transfer models, the FBCT product utilizes Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) radiances partitioned by cloud-type within a CERES footprint to estimate the cloud-type broadband fluxes. The MODIS multi-channel derived broadband fluxes were compared with the CERES observed footprint fluxes and were found to be within 1% and 2.5% for LW and SW, respectively, as well as being mostly free of cloud property dependencies. These biases are mitigated by constraining the cloud-type fluxes within each footprint with the CERES Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) observed flux. The FBCT all-sky and clear-sky monthly averaged fluxes were found to be consistent with the CERES SSF1deg product. Several examples of FBCT data are presented to highlight its utility for scientific applications.

Effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols in E3SMv1: historical changes, causality, decomposition, and parameterization sensitivities

The effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols (ERFaer) is an important measure of the anthropogenic aerosol effects simulated by a global climate model. Here we analyze ERFaer simulated by the E3SMv1 atmosphere model using both century-long free-running atmosphere-land simulations and short nudged simulations. We relate the simulated ERFaer to characteristics of the aerosol composition and optical properties, and evaluate the relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties. In terms of historical changes from the year 1870 to 2014, our results show that the global mean anthropogenic aerosol burden and optical depth increase during the simulation period as expected, but the regional averages show large differences in the temporal evolution. The largest regional differences are found in the emission-induced evolution of the burden and optical depth of the sulfate aerosol: a strong decreasing trend is seen in the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude region after around 1970, while a continued increase is simulated in the tropics. Consequently, although the global mean anthropogenic aerosol burden and optical depth increase from 1870 to 2014, the ERFaer magnitude does not increase after around year 1970. The relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties (relative changes between preindustrial and present-day conditions) also show evident changes after 1970, diverging from the linear relationships exhibited for the period from 1870 to 2014. The ERFaer in E3SMv1 is relatively large compared to the recently published multi-model estimates; the primary reason is the large indirect aerosol effect (i.e., through aerosol-cloud interactions). Compared to other models, E3SMv1 features a stronger sensitivity of the cloud droplet effective radius to changes in the cloud droplet number concentration. Large sensitivity is also seen in the liquid cloud optical depth, which is determined by changes in both the effective radius and liquid water path. Aerosol-induced changes in liquid and ice cloud properties in E3SMv1 are found to have a strong correlation, as the evolution of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols affects both the liquid cloud formation and the homogeneous ice nucleation in cirrus clouds. The ERFaer estimates in E3SMv1 for the shortwave and longwave components are sensitive to the parameterization changes in both liquid and ice cloud processes. When the parameterization of ice cloud processes is modified, the top-of-atmosphere forcing changes in the shortwave and longwave components largely offset each other, so the net effect is negligible. This suggests that, to reduce the magnitude of the net ERFaer, it would be more effective to reduce the anthropogenic aerosol effect through liquid or mixed-phase clouds.

Biomass burning aerosol heating rates from the ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) 2016 and 2017 experiments

Aerosol heating due to shortwave absorption has implications for local atmospheric stability and regional dynamics. The derivation of heating rate profiles from space-based observations is challenging because it requires the vertical profile of relevant properties such as the aerosol extinction coefficient and single-scattering albedo (SSA). In the southeastern Atlantic, this challenge is amplified by the presence of stratocumulus clouds below the biomass burning plume advected from Africa, since the cloud properties affect the magnitude of the aerosol heating aloft, which may in turn lead to changes in the cloud properties and life cycle. The combination of spaceborne lidar data with passive imagers shows promise for future derivations of heating rate profiles and curtains, but new algorithms require careful testing with data from aircraft experiments where measurements of radiation, aerosol, and cloud parameters are better colocated and readily available. In this study, we derive heating rate profiles and vertical cross sections (curtains) from aircraft measurements during the NASA ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) project in the southeastern Atlantic. Spectrally resolved irradiance measurements and the derived column absorption allow for the separation of total heating rates into aerosol and gas (primarily water vapor) absorption. The nine cases we analyzed capture some of the co-variability of heating rate profiles and their primary drivers, leading to the development of a new concept: the heating rate efficiency (HRE; the heating rate per unit aerosol extinction). HRE, which accounts for the overall aerosol loading as well as vertical distribution of the aerosol layer, varies little with altitude as opposed to the standard heating rate. The large case-to-case variability for ORACLES is significantly reduced after converting from heating rate to HRE, allowing us to quantify its dependence on SSA, cloud albedo, and solar zenith angle.

Modeled and observed properties related to the direct aerosol radiative effect of biomass burning aerosol over the southeastern Atlantic

Biomass burning smoke is advected over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean between July and October of each year. This smoke plume overlies and mixes into a region of persistent low marine clouds. Model calculations of climate forcing by this plume vary significantly in both magnitude and sign. NASA EVS-2 (Earth Venture Suborbital-2) ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) had deployments for field campaigns off the west coast of Africa in 3 consecutive years (September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018) with the goal of better characterizing this plume as a function of the monthly evolution by measuring the parameters necessary to calculate the direct aerosol radiative effect. Here, this dataset and satellite retrievals of cloud properties are used to test the representation of the smoke plume and the underlying cloud layer in two regional models (WRF-CAM5 and CNRM-ALADIN) and two global models (GEOS and UM-UKCA). The focus is on the comparisons of those aerosol and cloud properties that are the primary determinants of the direct aerosol radiative effect and on the vertical distribution of the plume and its properties. The representativeness of the observations to monthly averages are tested for each field campaign, with the sampled mean aerosol light extinction generally found to be within 20 % of the monthly mean at plume altitudes. When compared to the observations, in all models, the simulated plume is too vertically diffuse and has smaller vertical gradients, and in two of the models (GEOS and UM-UKCA), the plume core is displaced lower than in the observations. Plume carbon monoxide, black carbon, and organic aerosol masses indicate underestimates in modeled plume concentrations, leading, in general, to underestimates in mid-visible aerosol extinction and optical depth. Biases in mid-visible single scatter albedo are both positive and negative across the models. Observed vertical gradients in single scatter albedo are not captured by the models, but the models do capture the coarse temporal evolution, correctly simulating higher values in October (2018) than in August (2017) and September (2016). Uncertainties in the measured absorption Ångstrom exponent were large but propagate into a negligible (<4 %) uncertainty in integrated solar absorption by the aerosol and, therefore, in the aerosol direct radiative effect. Model biases in cloud fraction, and, therefore, the scene albedo below the plume, vary significantly across the four models. The optical thickness of clouds is, on average, well simulated in the WRF-CAM5 and ALADIN models in the stratocumulus region and is underestimated in the GEOS model; UM-UKCA simulates cloud optical thickness that is significantly too high. Overall, the study demonstrates the utility of repeated, semi-random sampling across multiple years that can give insights into model biases and how these biases affect modeled climate forcing. The combined impact of these aerosol and cloud biases on the direct aerosol radiative effect (DARE) is estimated using a first-order approximation for a subset of five comparison grid boxes. A significant finding is that the observed grid box average aerosol and cloud properties yield a positive (warming) aerosol direct radiative effect for all five grid boxes, whereas DARE using the grid-box-averaged modeled properties ranges from much larger positive values to small, negative values. It is shown quantitatively how model biases can offset each other, so that model improvements that reduce biases in only one property (e.g., single scatter albedo but not cloud fraction) would lead to even greater biases in DARE. Across the models, biases in aerosol extinction and in cloud fraction and optical depth contribute the largest biases in DARE, with aerosol single scatter albedo also making a significant contribution.

The Surface Longwave Cloud Radiative Effect derived from Space Lidar Observations

Clouds warm the surface in the longwave (LW) and this warming effect can be quantified through the surface LW cloud radiative effect (CRE). The global surface LW CRE is estimated using long-term observations from space-based radiometers (2000–2021) but has some bias over continents and icy surfaces. It is also estimated globally using the combination of radar, lidar and space-based radiometer over the 5–year period ending in 2011. To develop a more reliable long time series of surface LW CRE over continental and icy surfaces, we propose new estimates of the global surface LW CRE from space-based lidar observations. We show from 1D atmospheric column radiative transfer calculations, that surface LW CRE linearly decreases with increasing cloud altitude. These computations allow us to establish simple relationships between surface LW CRE, and five cloud properties that are well observed by the CALIPSO space-based lidar: opaque cloud cover and altitude, and thin cloud cover, altitude, and emissivity. We use these relationships to retrieve the surface LW CRE at global scale over the 2008–2020 time period (27 Wm−2). We evaluate this new surface LW CRE product by comparing it to existing satellite-derived products globally on instantaneous collocated data at footprint scale and on global averages, as well as to ground-based observations at specific locations. Our estimate appears to be an improvement over others as it appropriately capture the surface LW CRE annual variability over bright polar surfaces and it provides a dataset of more than 13 years long.

Emergent Constraints on CMIP6 Climate Warming Projections: Contrasting Cloud- and Surface Temperature-Based Constraints

The latest Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble shows a broader range of projected warming than the previous-generation CMIP5 ensemble. We show that the projected warming is well-correlated with tropical and subtropical low-level cloud properties. These physically-meaningful relations enable us to use observed cloud properties to constrain future climate warming. We develop multivariate-linear-regression models with metrics selected from a set of potential constraints based on a step-wise selection approach. The resulting linear regression model using two low-cloud metrics shows better cross-validated results than regression models which use single metrics as constraints. Application of a regression model using the low-cloud metrics to climate projections results in similar estimates of the mean, but substantially-narrower ranges, of projected 21st century warming when compared with unconstrained simulations. The resulting projected global-mean warming in 2081-2100 relative to 1995-2014 is 2.84-5.12 K (5-95% range) for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5-8.5, compared with a range of 2.34-5.81 K for unconstrained projections, and 0.60-1.70 K for SSP1-2.6, compared to an unconstrained range of 0.38-2.04 K. We provide evidence for a higher lower-bound of the projected warming range than that obtained from constrained projections based on the past global-mean temperature trend. Consideration of the impact of the sea surface temperature pattern effect on the recent observed warming trend, which is not well-captured in the CMIP6 ensemble, indicates that the relatively-low projected warming resulting from the global-mean temperature trend constraint may not be reliable and provides further justification for the use of climatologically-based cloud metrics to constrain projections.

Evaluating the Consistency and Continuity of Pixel-Scale Cloud Property Data Records From Aqua and SNPP

The Aqua, SNPP, and JPSS satellites carry a combination of hyperspectral infrared sounders (AIRS, CrIS) and high-spatial-resolution narrowband imagers (MODIS, VIIRS). They provide an opportunity to acquire high-quality long-term cloud data records and are a key component of the existing Program of Record of cloud observations. By matching observations from sounders and imagers across different platforms at pixel scale, this study evaluates the self-consistency and continuity of cloud retrievals from Aqua and SNPP by multiple algorithms, including the AIRS Version-7 retrieval algorithm and the Community Long-term Infrared Microwave Combined Atmospheric Product System (CLIMCAPS) Version-2 for sounders, and the Standard Aqua-MODIS Collection-6.1 and the NASA MODIS-VIIRS continuity cloud products for imagers. Metrics describing detailed statistical distributions at sounder field of view (FOV) and the joint histograms of cloud properties are evaluated. These products are found highly consistent despite their retrieval from different sensors using different algorithms. Differences between the two sounder cloud products are mainly due to cloud clearing and treatment of clouds in scenes with unsuccessful atmospheric profile retrievals. The sounder subpixel cloud heterogeneity evaluated using the standard deviation of imager retrievals at sounder FOV shows good agreement between the standard and continuity products from different satellites. However, impact of algorithm and instrument differences between MODIS and VIIRS is revealed in cloud top pressure retrievals and in the imager cloud distribution skewness. Our study presents a unique aspect to examine NASA’s progress toward building a continuous cloud data record with sufficient quality to investigate clouds’ role in global environmental change.

Quality assessment of Second-generation Global Imager (SGLI)-observed cloud properties using SKYNET surface observation data

The Second-generation Global Imager (SGLI) onboard the Global Change Observation Mission – Climate (GCOM-C) satellite launched on December 23, 2017, observes various geophysical parameters with the aim of a better understanding of the global climate system. As part of that aim, SGLI has great potential to unravel several uncertainties related to clouds by providing new cloud products along with several other atmospheric products related to cloud climatology, including aerosol products from polarization channels. However, a very little is known about the quality of the SGLI cloud products. This study uses data about clouds and global irradiances observed from the Earth’s surface using a sky radiometer and a pyranometer, respectively, to understand the quality of the two most fundamental cloud properties—cloud optical depth (COD) and cloud-particle effective radius (CER)—of both water and ice clouds. The SGLI-observed COD agrees well with values observed from the surface, although it agrees better for water clouds than for ice clouds, while the SGLI-observed CER exhibits poorer agreement than does the COD, with the SGLI values being generally higher than the sky radiometer values. These comparisons between the SGLI and sky radiometer cloud properties are found to differ for different cloud types of both the water and ice cloud phases and different solar and satellite viewing angles by agreeing better for relatively uniform and flat cloud type and for relatively low solar zenith angle. Analyses of SGLI-observed reflectance functions and values calculated by assuming plane-parallel cloud layers suggest that SGLI-retrieved cloud properties can have biases on the solar and satellite viewing angles, similar to other satellite sensors including the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Furthermore, it is found that the SGLI-observed cloud properties reproduce global irradiances quite satisfactorily for both water and ice clouds by resembling several important features of the COD comparison, such as the better agreement for water clouds than for ice clouds and the tendency to underestimate (resp. overestimate) the COD in SGLI observations for optically thick (resp. thin) clouds.