A Modeling and Analysis Framework for Integrated Energy Systems Exposed to Climate Change-Induced NaTech Accidental Scenarios

This paper proposes a novel framework for the analysis of integrated energy systems (IESs) exposed to both stochastic failures and “shock” climate-induced failures, such as those characterizing NaTech accidental scenarios. With such a framework, standard centralized systems (CS), IES with distributed generation (IES-DG) and IES with bidirectional energy conversion (IES+P2G) enabled by power-to-gas (P2G) facilities can be analyzed. The framework embeds the model of each single production plant in an integrated power-flow model and then couples it with a stochastic failures model and a climate-induced failure model, which simulates the occurrence of extreme weather events (e.g., flooding) driven by climate change. To illustrate how to operationalize the analysis in practice, a case study of a realistic IES has been considered that comprises two combined cycle gas turbine plants (CCGT), a nuclear power plant (NPP), two wind farms (WF), a solar photovoltaicS (PV) field and a power-to-gas station (P2G). Results suggest that the IESs are resilient to climate-induced failures.

Improved Thermoeconomic Energy Efficiency Analysis for Integrated Energy Systems

The structure of an integrated energy system is complex. Thermoeconomics can play a significant role in the analysis of IES because it makes up for the deficiency of traditional thermodynamic analysis and provides new information on the cost and energy conversion efficiency. When using thermoeconomics to analyze the energy efficiency of an IES, one key issue that needs to be solved is how to transfer irreversible loss across thermal cycles, so that the mechanism of system performance degradation can be fully revealed. To this end, an irreversible cost and exergy cost integrated analysis method based on improved thermoeconomics is proposed, in which the cumulative and transmission impact of irreversible loss across thermal cycles is evaluated using linear transformation of <KP> matrix. A case study on a 389MW combined cooling, heating, and power IES demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The proposed approach can reveal the key links impairing the overall energy efficiency and transfer of irreversible loss across thermal cycles. The approach can be extended to various types of IES to provide directions for the assessment and optimization of the system.