Eliminating the “hook” in Precipitation-Temperature Scaling

Observational studies of extreme daily and subdaily precipitation-temperature sensitivities (apparent scaling) aim to provide evidence and improved understanding of how extreme precipitation will respond to a warming climate. However, interpretation of apparent scaling results is hindered by large variations in derived scaling rates and divergence from theoretical and modelled projections of systematic increases in extreme precipitation intensities (climate scaling). In warmer climatic regions, rainfall intensity has been reported to increase with temperature to a maximum before decreasing, creating a second order discontinuity or “hook” like structure. Here we investigate spatial and temporal discrepancies in apparent scaling results by isolating rainfall events and conditioning event precipitation on duration. We find that previously reported negative apparent scaling at higher temperatures which creates the hook structure, is the result of a decrease in the duration of the precipitation event, and not to the decrease in precipitation rate. We introduce standardized pooling using long records of Australian station data across climate zones, to show average precipitation intensities and 1-h peak precipitation intensities increase with temperature across all event durations and locations investigated. For shorter duration events (< 6-h), average precipitation intensity scaling is in line with the expected Clausius- Clapeyron (CC) relation at ~7 %/°C, and this decreases with increasing duration, down to 2 %/°C at 24-h duration. Consistent with climate scaling derived from model projections, 1-h peak precipitation intensities are found to increase with temperature at elevated rates compared to average precipitation intensities, with super-CC scaling (10 – 14 %/°C) found for short-duration events in tropical climates.

Coherent lower and upper conditional previsions defined by Hausdorff inner and outer measures to represent the role of conscious and unconscious thought in human decision making

The model of coherent lower and upper conditional previsions, based on Hausdorff inner and outer measures, is proposed to represent the preference orderings and the equivalences, respectively assigned by the conscious and unconscious thought in human decision making under uncertainty. Complexity of partial information is represented by the Hausdorff dimension of the conditioning event. When the events, that describe the decision problem, are measurable is represented to the s-dimensional Hausdorff outer measure, where s is the Hausdorff dimension of the conditioning event, an optimal decision can be reached. The model is applied and discussed in Linda’s Problem and the conjunction fallacy is resolved.

Agreeing to Disagree with Conditional Probability Systems

In this note, we extend Aumann’s agreement theorem to a framework where beliefs are modelled by conditional probability systems à la Battigalli, P., and M. Siniscalchi. 1999. “Hierarchies of Conditional Beliefs and Interactive Epistemology in Dynamic Games.” Journal of Economic Theory 88: 188–230. We prove two independent generalizations of the agreement theorem, one where the agents share some common conditioning event, and one where they may not.

On Conditional Value at Risk (CoVaR) for tail-dependent copulas

The paper deals with Conditional Value at Risk (CoVaR) for copulas with nontrivial tail dependence. We show that both in the standard and the modified settings, the tail dependence function determines the limiting properties of CoVaR as the conditioning event becomes more extreme. The results are illustrated with examples using the extreme value, conic and truncation invariant families of bivariate tail-dependent copulas.

PENGEMBANGAN RISK ASSESSMENT DALAM EVALUASI MANAJEMEN PENANGGULANGAN KEBAKARAN MELALUI FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

Fault tree analysis adalah suatu penilaian risiko yang mampu mengidentifikasi potensi bahaya secara spesifik, fokus, rinci pada satu kejadian yang tidak diinginkan, dan mengetahui penyebab kejadian tersebut beserta angka probabilitasnya. Tercatat mulai tanggal 1 Januari – 30 April 2014 terjadi kebakaran sebanyak 10 kali di divisi spinning PT. Apac Inti Corpora dengan kasus tertinggi di unit spinning V (50% kejadian).Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengetahui faktor penyebab kebakaran, mengembangkan penilaian risiko, dan mengetahui gambaran umum sistem manajemen penanggulangan kebakaran di unit spinning V PT. AIC. Desain penelitian ini adalah kualitatif eksplanatoris. Hasil pengembangan bagan fault tree analysis didapatkan 41 basic event, 24 intermediate event, 1 conditioning event, dan 1 undeveloped event yang secara matematis melalui persamaan aljabar boolean akan menghasilkan 35 single minimum cut sets dan 5 double component cut sets, dengan perhitungan angka probabilitas sebesar 0,3552. Hasil kesesuaian sistem manajemen penanggulangan kebakaran didapatkan 76 poin dari 81 poin standar regulasi yang berlaku di Indonesia. Simpulan penelitian ini adalah kemungkinan terjadinya kebakaran di spinning V sebesar 35,52%. Saran dari penelitian ini adalah dilakukannya evaluasi terhadap kegagalan deteksi dini dan kegagalan teknis. Fault tree analysis has advantages in identifying potential hazards in specifics, focus, detail on a potential undesirable event that called top event, and was able to find out the causes with the value of probability. Recorded at January 1th – April 30th, 2014, there had been 10 cases of fires in the spinning PT. Apac Inti Corpora with the highest cases at spinning V (50% event). The purpose of this research was find out the cause of fires, develop a risk assessment, and learn an overview of fires countermeasures management system in spinning V. This research was a qualitative – explanatory design. Result of development fault tree analysis brings about 41 basic event, 24 intermediate event, 1 conditioning event, dan 1 undeveloped event by boolean algebra, mathematically generates 35 single minimum cut sets and 5 double component cut sets, with the value of probability is 0,3552. Whereas the countermeasure of fire management system conformity obtained 76 points is according from 81 points of regulatory standards in Indonesia. Summary, spinning unit V had the possibility of going fires is 35,52%. Advice, conducted evaluation of failure from early detection and technical failures in the production process.

Reappraisal of Threat Value: Loss of Blocking in Human Aversive Conditioning

Non-specificity of fear is a core aspect of what makes anxiety disorders so impairing: Fear does not remain specific to a single stimulus paired with danger, but generalizes to a broad set of stimuli, resulting in a snowballing of threat signals. The blocking procedure can provide a valuable laboratory model for gaining insight into such threat appraisal and generalization processes. We report two experiments in which we induced selective threat appraisal by using a blocking procedure in human aversive conditioning. We subsequently assessed to what extent such selective threat appraisal is sensitive to different kinds of interference. Results illustrate that the maintenance of selective threat appraisal is not guaranteed: Stimuli present during an aversive conditioning event that are initially tagged with a low threat value, can come to be tagged with a higher threat value later on, without additional experience with these stimuli. We argue that such interference in selective threat appraisal might be one of the mechanisms underlying the pathogenesis of non-specific fear.