Using the paleotsunami data for the tsunami hazard assessment

The article is focused on the development of statistical methods of the tsunami recurrence evaluation using paleotsunami data. The new key moment is the creation of a model to quantify the preservation potential of paleotsunami deposits. The article includes a brief overview of the results of studies of the variability and preservation of tsunami deposits. The model was tested on materials about paleotsunami on the coast in the Khalaktyrka area (a village within the city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky), obtained earlier, for four time intervals set by the key-marker volcanic tephra layers in Kamchatka (Ksudach in 1907, Avachinsky in 1855 and 1779, Opala in 606). The maximum likelihood estimates of the number of tsunamigenic horizons for the indicated time intervals are given. The restrictions of the considered model are analyzed.

Paleotsunamis from the central Kuril Islands segment of the Japan-Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone

Paleotsunami records from the central Kuril Island segment of the Japan-Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone indicate that the region has been frequently inundated by tsunamis. As many as 20e22 tsunami deposits are recognized on Matua Island for the past 3300 yr with an average tsunami recurrence interval of ~150 yr, and 34e36 tsunami deposits are evident on Simushir Island for the past 2350 yr with an average recurrence of ~65 yr. These intervals are short, but comparable to other segments of the Japan-Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone. Results from all survey locations reveal shortening recurrence intervals toward the present, especially for the last 600 yr, indicating a possible preservation bias. On Simushir, tsunamis at least 11 m higher than the modern tsunamis in 2006 and 2007 occurred every ~300 yr on average. On Matua, tsunamis with slightly farther inundation than the 2006 and 2007 tsunamis occurred every ~215 yr while those with at least 100 m farther inland inundation occur every ~750 yr. Our paleotsunami record almost certainly includes tsunamis that are not from great subduction zone earthquakes in the central Kuril segment: we expect the Matua record includes volcanic tsunamis and the Simushir record includes tsunamis from the southern Kuril segment.

Geological evidence for paleotsunamis along eastern Sicily (Italy): an overview

We present geological evidence for paleotsunamis along the ~230 km-long coast of eastern Sicily (Italy); combining this information with historical data, we reconstruct a unique history of tsunami inundations. We integrate data on 38 paleotsunami deposits (from fine sand layers to boulders) collected at 11 sites (one offshore). The geological data record traces of large tsunamis which have occurred during the past 4 millennia. Chronological constrains include 14C, 210Pb and 137Cs, OSL and tephrochronology. When compatible, the age of the paleotsunami deposits is associated to historical events, but it is also used to highlight unknown tsunamis. Average tsunami recurrence interval (between 320 and 840 yr) and minimum inland tsunami ingressions (often greater than the historical ones) were estimated at several sites. On the basis of this work, the tsunami catalogue is implemented by two unknown tsunamis which occurred during the first millennium BC and by one unknown regional tsunami, which occurred in 650–770 AD. By including this latter event in the eastern Sicily catalogue, we estimate an average recurrence interval for strong tsunamis of ca. 385 yr. Comparison and merging of historical and geological data can definitely contribute to a better understanding of regional and local tsunami potential and provides robust parameters to be used in tsunami hazard estimates.

Combining inland and offshore paleotsunamis evidence: the Augusta Bay (eastern Sicily, Italy) case study

Offshore and inland geological evidence for multiple tsunami inundations was found in the Augusta Bay area: (1) the main local historical tsunamis (1908, 1693, 1169), (2) two far-generated tsunamis (i.e. Crete 365 AD and Santorini, 3600 BP), and (3) seven unknown tsunamis). Average tsunami recurrence intervals from inland and offshore investigations of about 550 and 320 yr, respectively were obtained for the past 4 ka. The history of paleotsunamis from the marine record appears to be as complete as the historical one for the past millennium, yielding an average tsunami recurrence interval of 250 yr for the Augusta Bay. Geological data allow also estimating a minimum tsunami inundation distance of 530 m and a minimum run-up of 5 m. The marine record contains evidence for more paleotsunamis with respect to the inland one because of continuous sedimentation and better preservation of stratigraphy in the offshore with respect to coastal areas, which are commonly affected by intermittent-erosion and sedimentation and anthropic activities. This work shows that the integration of geological and historical data can provide critical information regarding the extent and age of tsunamis of the past (e.g. inundation distance, age, and frequency), which is of immediate relevance for tsunami hazard assessment.

Local inundation distances and regional tsunami recurrence in the Indian Ocean inferred from luminescence dating of sandy deposits in Thailand

The Holocene beach-ridge plain of Phra Thong Island (Ko Phra Thong, SW Thailand) provides sedimentary evidence of several palaeotsunamis, in addition to the deposit of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Due to poor preservation conditions, these palaeoevent layers are restricted to swales. Correlation across beach ridges, which is important e.g. to reconstruct inundation distances, remains a major challenge. A primary tool for establishing a precisely confined correlation of the sand sheets is the use of chronological data. Since the application of radiocarbon dating is limited by the scarcity of appropriate material, this study utilised optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of tsunamigenic quartz grains. Generally, the sediments showed favourable luminescence properties regarding signal intensity, dose recovery and thermal stability. Disturbances of the OSL signal due to partial bleaching were corrected using the minimum age model. At least three palaeoevents – being 490–550, 925–1035 and 1740–2000 yr old – were distinguished by dating the discontinuous sand sheets at four different sites. Besides this chronological framework, the OSL data provide the opportunity to correlate the discontinuous sand sheets between spatially separated sites within the same swale as well as across ridges. This allows for first estimates of inundation distances for the palaeotsunamis documented on Phra Thong Island. Furthermore, the two younger events overlap in age with contemporaneous tsunami and earthquake evidence from other coasts bordering the Indian Ocean.