The short-term impact of analyst recommendations: evidence from the Indian stock market

Purpose This study aims to evaluate the short-term impact of brokerage analysts’ recommendations on abnormal returns using a sample selected from the S&P BSE 100 in the Indian context. The efficient market hypothesis, specifically, its semi-strong form, is tested for “Buy” stock recommendations published in the electronic version of Business Standard. The crucial issue is, are there any abnormal returns that can be earned following a recommendation? If so, how quickly do prices incorporate the information value of these recommendations? It tests the impact of analyst recommendations on average abnormal returns (AARs) and standardized abnormal returns (SRs) to determine their statistical significance. Design/methodology/approach Using a sample of stock recommendations published in the e-version of Business Standard, the event study methodology is used to determine whether AARs and SRs are significantly different from zero for the duration of the event window by using several significance tests. Findings The findings indicate a marginal opportunity for profit in the short term, restricted to the event day. However, the effect does not persist, i.e. the market is efficient in its semi-strong form implying that investors cannot consistently earn abnormal returns by following analysts’ recommendations. Post the event date, the market reaction to analyst recommendations becomes positive, however, insignificant until the ninth day after the recommendation providing support to the underreaction hypothesis given by Shliefer (2000) and post-recommendation price drift documented by Womack (1996). The study contributes by using different statistical tests to determine the significance of returns. Practical implications There are important implications for traders, investors and portfolio managers. The speed with which market prices incorporate publicly available information is useful in formulating trading strategies. However, stock characteristics such as market capitalization, volatility and level of analyst coverage need to be incorporated while making investment decisions. Originality/value The study contributes by using different statistical tests to determine the significance of returns.

Sistem Pendukung Keputusan Rekomendasi Emiten Saham Menggunakan Metode Simple Additive Weighting

In the current era, stock investing is an instrument that is currently popular with Indonesian youth, stock investing is one of the many investment options that are increasingly in demand by various groups. Investing in stocks is an activity to refrain from enjoying the present for more enjoyment in the future, this investment often brings someone to be wiser in managing their finances, choosing good stocks is not an easy thing for some investors it takes many factors and ratios - financial ratios to choose stocks that can provide financing by the initial investment objectives. Therefore we need a system to help these problems. The system is a decision support system that can assist in making decisions from the available options. This Stock Issuer Recommendation Decision Support System Using the Simple Additive Weighting Method is here to assist decision-makers to choose good issuers or stocks to collect so that they can provide good profits in the future. The results of the calculation on the system using the Simple Additive Weighting method will show the best suitable stock recommendations for the user based on the data they enter.

Financial restatements and sell-side analysts' stock recommendations: evidence from Malaysia

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the influence of financial restatements on the sell-side analysts' stock recommendations.Design/methodology/approachThe sample of this study is based on a dataset from a panel of 246 Malaysian public listed companies for the period 2008 to 2013 (651 company-year observations). This study employs feasible generalized least squares regression.FindingsThis study finds a negative and significant relationship between restated companies and sell-side analysts' stock recommendations, which means that sell-side analysts issue less favorable stock recommendations for restated companies.Practical implicationsThe findings based on observations from an emerging economy complement the results of the US studies that analysts revise their earnings forecasts or recommendations downwards or drop coverage following financial restatements. The results of this study should be useful to capital market participants in understanding how analysts perceive and evaluate restated companies.Originality/valueThis paper expands the literature on financial restatements consequences in an emerging market which is largely unstudied. Prior research on analyst behavior towards restatements has focused on the consequences of restatements in terms of analyst following and forecast accuracy and dispersion. This study examines if and how the restatements affect the analysts' final output as reflected in the recommendation opinion, an area that has so far received little attention.

The association of analysts’ cash flow forecasts with stock recommendation profitability

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether analysts’ cash flow forecasts improve the profitability of their stock recommendations and whether the positive effect of cash flow forecasts on analysts’ stock recommendation performance varies with firms’ earnings quality. Design/methodology/approach To test the authors’ predictions, they identify a sample of 161,673 stock recommendations with contemporaneous earnings forecasts and/or cash flow forecasts and regress market-adjusted stock returns on a binary variable that proxies for the issuance of cash flow forecasts while controlling for contemporaneous earnings forecast accuracy, earnings quality, analysts’ forecast experience and capability and certain firm characteristics. The authors’ test results are robust to alternative measures of recommendation profitability, earnings quality and the use of recommendation revisions instead of recommendation levels. Findings The authors find that when analysts issue cash flow forecasts concurrently with earnings forecasts, their stock recommendations lead to higher profitability than when they only issue earnings forecasts, after controlling for analysts’ forecast capability. Moreover, the authors document that the contemporaneous positive relationship between cash flow forecasts and recommendations profitability is stronger for firms with low earnings quality than for firms with high earnings quality. The findings suggest that cash flow forecasts issued by analysts in response to market demand likely play a more important role in firm valuation than cash flow forecasts issued by analysts mainly because of supply-side considerations. Research limitations/implications Future research could build on these findings to conduct further investigation on the alternative incentives for analysts’ forecasts of sales growth and long-term growth rates. Practical implications These findings may also help investors to better assess the quality of analysts’ research outputs and to identify superior stock recommendations. Originality/value This study provides insight into the role of cash flow forecasts in firm valuation and adds fresh evidence to the debate on the usefulness of cash flow forecasts. It extends the stream of research on the characteristics of analyst forecasts and increases our knowledge about the role of analysts in the financial market.

Individual Analysts' Stock Recommendations, Earnings Forecasts, and the Informativeness of Conference Call Question and Answer Sessions

ABSTRACT This paper deepens our understanding of the anatomy of an earnings conference call. Prior research indicates that, on average, analysts providing bullish stock recommendations or beatable earnings forecasts benefit from greater access to corporate management. Therefore, we analyze whether and to what extent individual analysts' ex ante stock recommendations and earnings forecasts affect the information content of analyst-manager conversations. Using intraday absolute stock price reactions around specific analyst-manager dialogs to measure informativeness, we find that manager dialogs with bearish analysts whose forecasts are missed are more informative. Such analysts engage in longer conversations with more back-and-forth iterations and exhibit a more negative tone, relative to bullish analysts that provide beatable forecasts. Stock prices directionally respond to both the analyst's linguistic tone and the manager's voice pitch. In sum, the capital market effects during an earnings conference call are far more nuanced than previously documented.