Evapotranspiration estimation of Urmia Lake Basin using GCOM-C thermal imagery

Basin-scale monthly and annual evapotranspiration (ET) is estimated for Urmia Lake Basin by applying the Global Change Observation Mission for Climate (GCOM-C) global ETindex estimation algorithm to thermal imagery observed by the GCOM-C satellite. In total, 297 satellite images acquired during 2018-2019 were used in this study. ET estimation accuracy was examined for an area dominated by apple fields using traditional surface irrigation. The estimated ET was 15% lower than the standard crop ET, which was computed using a procedure suggested by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations on a monthly timescale, and was 8% lower on an annual timescale. Comparison of estimated ET with a satellite-based ET map derived by using the Mapping EvapoTranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC) model showed a similar difference. The 8%–15% differences among the different sources of ET were small, given that a similar or wider range of uncertainty is frequently available even in ground-based ET measurements. Comparison between the estimated ET and the MODIS ET Product (MOD16) revealed a greater difference in the evaluated area of the apple fields. Given the climatic ET demands and the irrigation practices of the area, ET estimation accuracy is more likely to be higher using the dataset derived from this study than using MOD16. The GCOM-C satellite started routine surface observations in January 2018. Its contribution to agricultural water management, such as by estimating ET as presented in this study, will increase as the amount of historical data stored continues to accumulate.

Changing Causes of Drought in the Urmia Lake Basin—Increasing Influence of Evaporation and Disappearing Snow Cover

The water level of the Urmia Lake Basin (ULB), located in the northwest of Iran, started to decline dramatically about two decades ago. As a result, the area has become the focus of increasing scientific research. In order to improve understanding of the connections between declining lake level and changing local drought conditions, three common drought indices are employed to analyze the period 1981–2018: The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standard Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI), and the Standardized Snow Melt and Rain Index (SMRI). Although rainfall is a significant indicator of water availability, temperature is also a key factor since it determines rates of evapotranspiration and snowmelt. These different processes are captured by the three drought indices mentioned above to describe drought in the catchment. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to provide a comparative analysis of drought over the ULB by incorporating different drought indices. Since there is not enough long-term observational data of sufficiently high density for the ULB region, ECMWF Reanalysis data version 5(ERA5) has been used to estimate SPI, SPEI, and SMRI drought indicators. These are shown to work well, with AUC-ROC > 0.9, in capturing different classes of basin drought characteristics. The results show a downward trend for SPEI and SMRI (but not for SPI), suggesting that both evaporation and lack of snowmelt exacerbate droughts. Owing to the increasing temperatures in the basin and the decrease in snowfall, drought events have become particularly pronounced in the SPEI and SMRI time series since 2010. No significant SMRI drought was detected prior to 1995, thus indicating that sufficient snowfall was available at the beginning of the study period. The study results also reveal that the decrease in lake water level from 2010 to 2018 was not only caused by changes in the water balance components, but also by unsustainable water management.