Do households with home security systems at home have a lower perceived probability of victimization?

Using the dataset of the first nationwide victimization survey in Azerbaijan, the current paper analyzed whether home security systems have a relationship with the perceived probability of property crime victimization. The ordinal logistic regression analysis was employed. The first set of results examining the distribution of security systems identified that despite the impact of certain demographics correlates, perceived risk is not a significant correlate of possession or absence of security systems. The presence of security measures at home was associated with a higher perceived probability of victimization level for acquisitive crimes. This study shows the importance of incorporating home security level as an independent variable. The choice of home as a unit of analysis when studying fear of victimization allowed us to ascertain not only the impact of home security systems on perceived victimization risks, but also to find out whether it is dwelling, demographic or neighborhood features that matter more in affecting sense of safety. The key findings of the study are that a) the level of home security systems is positively correlated with PPV, irrespective of individual-level characteristics, and b) perceived risk is not a statistically significant factor when it comes to a decision to purchase security systems.

Impact of Tournament Incentives on Management Earnings Forecasts

This paper examines how rank-order tournament incentives in the top management team (TMT) influence the quality of management earnings forecasts (MEFs). Instead of breeding feelings of inequality and fostering peer sabotage, the large pay gap between the CEO and subordinates may motivate top executives to issue more accurate and precise forecasts to win the prize of promotion. The positive tournament effect on the quality of MEFs is weakened (strengthened) when the perceived probability of promotion for candidates is low (high). We find that firms with higher tournament incentives are more likely to issue supplementary forecasts to increase the credibility of MEFs. By examining the tournament effect at each subordinate manager level, we find that CFOs are the driving force in controlling the frequency and quality of management forecasts and chief marketing officers (CMOs) may also contribute to the quality of management forecasts. The results are robust to multiple measures of tournament incentives and multiple research designs.

Quantifying the Distorting Effect of Rapid Guessing on Estimates of Coefficient Αlpha

An underlying threat to the validity of reliability measures is the introduction of systematic variance in examinee scores from unintended constructs that differ from those assessed. One construct-irrelevant behavior that has gained increased attention in the literature is rapid guessing (RG), which occurs when examinees answer quickly with intentional disregard for item content. To examine the degree of distortion in coefficient alpha due to RG, this study compared alpha estimates between conditions in which simulees engaged in full solution (i.e., do not engage in RG) versus partial RG behavior. This was done by conducting a simulation study in which the percentage and ability characteristics of rapid responders as well as the percentage and pattern of RG were manipulated. After controlling for test length and difficulty, the average degree of distortion in estimates of coefficient alpha due to RG ranged from -.04 to .02 across 144 conditions. Although slight differences were noted between conditions differing in RG pattern and RG responder ability, the findings from this study suggest that estimates of coefficient alpha are largely robust to the presence of RG due to cognitive fatigue and a low perceived probability of success.

Quantifying the Distorting Effect of Rapid Guessing on Estimates of Coefficient Αlpha

An underlying threat to the validity of reliability measures is the introduction of systematic variance in examinee scores from unintended constructs that differ from those assessed. One construct-irrelevant behavior that has gained increased attention in the literature is rapid guessing (RG), which occurs when examinees answer quickly with intentional disregard for item content. To examine the degree of distortion in coefficient alpha due to RG, this study compared alpha estimates between conditions in which simulees engaged in full solution (i.e., do not engage in RG) versus partial RG behavior. This was done by conducting a simulation study in which the percentage and ability characteristics of rapid responders as well as the percentage and pattern of RG were manipulated. After controlling for test length and difficulty, the average degree of distortion in estimates of coefficient alpha due to RG ranged from −.04 to .02 across 144 conditions. Although slight differences were noted between conditions differing in RG pattern and RG responder ability, the findings from this study suggest that estimates of coefficient alpha are largely robust to the presence of RG due to cognitive fatigue and a low perceived probability of success.

Perceived Risk of Infection Linked to Changes in Comfort in Social Situations From Before to During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background: Social lives have significantly changed since social distancing measures have been implemented to prevent the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study aimed to investigate how our appraisal of social situations changed during the pandemic.Methods: In two online surveys, conducted in October 2019 and April 2020, 58 participants rated their personal level of comfort for sketches depicting social situations. Situations were separately categorized according to the risk of a possible COVID-19 infection and changes in ratings were analyzed by using a repeated measures ANOVA. Moreover, potential influencing factors on the change in ratings such as perceived infection risk and social factors like regular frequency and liking of social interactions were examined.Results: There was a significant interaction (p < 0.001) between time of measurement and risk category. Comfort ratings of depicted situations with low and medium infection risk were higher during the second compared to the first survey period. Ratings of high-risk situations did not change significantly, although there was a tendency toward lower ratings during the pandemic. Multiple regression analyses showed that perceived probability of short-term infection could explain variance in the change of ratings of social situations with low- and medium risk, but not perceived probability of long-term infection or social factors.Conclusion: The results suggest that the change of participant's appraisal of the social situations during the COVID-19 pandemic relates to perceived infection risk. Both, the risk associated with the specific scenario as well as the general belief of short-term infection risk were associated with change. This change predominantly manifested in greater thought of comfort during low and medium risk situations, which might give a sense of safety during the pandemic. The finding that high-risk social situations were not rated as uncomfortable as expected must be considered with regard to the young sample and may not be generalizable to other individuals. Further research is necessary to evaluate long-term effects on social interactions caused by global pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Decisions on Probabilistic Selling for Consumers with Different Risk Attitudes

Consumer attitudes toward probabilistic goods are affected not only by their personal preferences, but also by their risk propensity. However, because the probability of obtaining their preferred items is determined by the retailer, consumers must search for related information and rely on their own subjective judgments to reduce the risk of not obtaining them. This study investigates the effects that consumer risk attitudes and word of mouth have on consumers’ purchase decisions regarding probabilistic goods and develops a pricing model for probabilistic selling in which a retailer offers probabilistic goods to heterogeneous consumers with different risk attitudes and possible social interactions. The analytical results show that a retailer’s profit decreases as the degree of risk aversion increases under the probabilistic selling strategy. In addition, word of mouth affects consumers’ purchasing decisions regarding different degrees of belief that they will obtain their preferred items. When the word-of-mouth effect decreases, the consumers’ perceived probability of obtaining their preferred items also decreases, which, consequently, reduces the retailer’s profits.

Flu Vaccination due to COVID 19 as a Risk-Aversion Health Measure among Low-Risk Populations

Fear, social responsibility, or vulnerability - which is the main driver of seasonable influenza vaccination in times of the pandemic? Our study using first-hand survey data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that none of these factors explains conclusively Australians who had the flu vaccination in 2020 due to COVID19 only. It was Australians who had higher education, without chronic health conditions, those in employment, fully covered by health insurance, living with families who reported statistically higher rates of flu vaccination due to COVID19 only. By contrast, people with one or more chronic health issues, single people without support reported statistically lower rates of seasonal influenza immunisation. Similar results are reported in the study of flu vaccination in countries like Canada, where among Canadians aged over 65, it was populations of higher education, married, in better health conditions (non-smokers), higher household income who reported consistently, statistically higher rates of flu vaccination between 2000-2019. The Australian survey data collected during the pandemic provided further evidence of flu vaccination as a risk-aversion health measure by low-risk populations - a social behavioural phenomenon observed across countries, ages, in normal circumstances or health crises. We interpreted our finding from the hypothesized human propensity to be risk-averse (chose to be vaccinated) when the perceived probability of an improvement over their status quo after vaccination was high (the certainty effect); and human tendency to be risk-seeking (chose not to be vaccinated) when the perceived probability of an improvement post-immunisation was low (the possibility effect). The higher rates of risk-averse behaviours (chose to be vaccinated) among people in better education, socio-economic and health conditions, and the lower rates of risk-seeking behaviours (chose not to be vaccinated) among people with chronic health issues and those living alone suggest that flu vaccination was perceived by low-risk populations as an effective risk-aversion measure leading to better outcomes of higher certainty; by contrast, flu vaccination was perceived by high-risk populations as a health measure of higher uncertainty, not aiding in improving their status quo as the implicit reference point, according to the Prospect Theory as applied in the study of people’s health behaviours.

The influence of COVID-19-specific health risk beliefs on the motivation to quit smoking

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, some smokers have experienced increased motivation to quit smoking, due to the higher risk of severe COVID-19 infection. However, this is not found across all smokers, and the motivation to quit appears dependent upon factors such as fear of COVID-19 and perceived risk from COVID-19. In the current investigation, specific COVID-19 risk beliefs were measured to isolate which beliefs predicted the motivation to quit smoking, these being the perceived severity of COVID-19 and perceived probability of COVID-19 infection. UK based smokers (N = 243) completed an online survey between September and October 2020, in which they reported their current motivation to quit smoking, fear of COVID-19, and their beliefs about how severe COVID-19 infection would be and how probable COVID-19 infection was. The only significant predictor of the motivation to quit smoking was the perceived probability of COVID-19 infection. This positive relationship remained when controlling for the general perceived probability and severity of other smoking related health conditions, suggesting a COVID-19-specific effect. Further, fear of COVID-19 only indirectly related to an increase in motivation to quit, when mediated through perceived probability of COVID-19 infection. The result places the perceived probability of COVID-19 infection as a central predictor of motivation to quit during the pandemic. Based on this evidence, messaging to smokers aiming to facilitate smoking cessation during the pandemic should focus on the highly contagious nature of the virus, to increase the motivation to quit.

Outcome Effects, Moral Luck and the Hindsight Bias

In a series of ten preregistered experiments (N=2043), we investigate the effect of outcome valence on judgments of probability, negligence, and culpability – a phenomenon sometimes labelled moral (and legal) luck. We found that harmful outcomes, when contrasted with neutral outcomes, lead to increased perceived probability of harm ex post, and consequently to increased attribution of negligence and culpability. Rather than simply postulating a hindsight bias (as is common), we employ a variety of empirical means to demonstrate that the outcome-driven asymmetry across perceived probabilities constitutes a systematic cognitive distortion. We then explore three distinct strategies to alleviate the hindsight bias and its downstream effects on mens rea and culpability ascriptions. Not all are successful, but at least some prove promising. They should, we argue, be taken into consideration in criminal jurisprudence, where distortions due to the hindsight bias are likely considerable and deeply disconcerting.

Can Reminders of Rules Induce Compliance? Experimental Evidence from a Common Pool Resource Setting

This paper presents results from an RCT exploring whether a behavioural intervention can improve the conservation of a common pool resource. The literature on common pool resource management suggests that the existence of rules and sanctions is important to resource conservation. However, behavioural science suggests that individuals have finite cognitive capacity and may not be attentive to these rules and sanctions. This paper investigates the impact of an SMS message intervention designed to improve users’ knowledge of and attentiveness to existing forest use rules. An RCT in Uganda explores the impact of these messages on forest use and compliance with the rules. This paper finds that SMS messages raise the perceived probability of sanctions for rule-breakers. However, SMS messages do not induce full compliance with forest use rules or systematically reduce forest use.