Consensus Gained, Consensus Maintained? Changing New Zealand's Electoral Law 1927-2007

<p>In the eighty years between the passage of New Zealand's first unified Electoral Act in 1927, and the passage of the Electoral Finance Act 2007, the New Zealand Parliament passed 66 acts that altered or amended New Zealand's electoral law. One central assumption of theories of electoral change is that those in power only change electoral rules strategically, in order to protect their self-interest.1 This thesis is an investigation into the way New Zealand governments effect and have effected their desired changes to the electoral law through the legislative process, and the roles self-interest and the active search for consensus between political parties have played in that process. It argues that, while self-interest serves as a compelling explanation for a great deal of electoral law change in New Zealand, altruistic motivations and the development of parliamentary processes influenced behaviour to an equal, and perhaps even greater, extent.</p>

Consensus Gained, Consensus Maintained? Changing New Zealand's Electoral Law 1927-2007

<p>In the eighty years between the passage of New Zealand's first unified Electoral Act in 1927, and the passage of the Electoral Finance Act 2007, the New Zealand Parliament passed 66 acts that altered or amended New Zealand's electoral law. One central assumption of theories of electoral change is that those in power only change electoral rules strategically, in order to protect their self-interest.1 This thesis is an investigation into the way New Zealand governments effect and have effected their desired changes to the electoral law through the legislative process, and the roles self-interest and the active search for consensus between political parties have played in that process. It argues that, while self-interest serves as a compelling explanation for a great deal of electoral law change in New Zealand, altruistic motivations and the development of parliamentary processes influenced behaviour to an equal, and perhaps even greater, extent.</p>

Context

Chapter 2 provides a detailed account of the three key stories of change that form the backdrop to this study—in paddy cultivation, electoral politics, and the practice of Islam. The two villages of Madanpur and Chishti (pseudonyms) are described. The changing dynamics of paddy cultivation and the challenges of the Green Revolution are introduced, as are the basic programs of land reform undertaken by communist governments. The story of huge electoral change from near-complete dominance of the communist parties of the Left Front from 1977 to their rout by Trinamool Congress in 2013 thirty four years later is outlined. The particular story of Islam, the origin of the elite Syeds from an Iranian ancestor, and present-day dynamics with reformist Islam are presented. Charles Taylor’s idea of “social imaginaries”—a key concept in the book—is discussed here.

The changing electoral market in Britain

The underlying purpose of this chapter is to demonstrate that the country’s electoral marketplace is more open than it once was and that, consequently, the competition for votes between parties is also more extensive. We begin with a consideration of how the electoral marketplace came to be relatively ‘closed’ in the first place, which entails an account of the historically derived linkages between parties and social groups in Britain, as well as the social psychology of fixed political identities. Following this, we examine how the electoral market began to open up after 1970, through a review of the widespread evidence of growing electoral instability since then. In truth, there never was an entirely closed electoral market in the UK, but since 1970 the evidence of significant electoral change suggests that the scope of competition has increased in line with an expansion of the market for ‘available’ votes.

Understanding electoral change

This chapter examines the contributions of realignment and dealignment to electoral change. Realignment is particularly apparent in the emergence of sociopolitical centre-periphery cleavages. Post-materialism and attitudes to European integration have clearly served to realign electoral support, while there are also growing signs of electoral differences based on age, education, and gender. Dealignment is evident principally in the weakening of partisan attachments, which in turn can be traced largely to the factors which underlie the decline of class voting, such as the strategic behaviour of parties themselves and also, to some extent, the erosion of distinctive and cohesive social classes, which is itself partly a consequence the changing shape of the socio-economic structure.

The Party System

This chapter focuses on the attributes and development of the Irish party system, describing its structure and where it sits in comparative perspective. As well as examining party size and ideology, the chapter applies Peter Mair’s conceptualization of the party system as the structure of competition for control of the executive to the Irish case. In doing so, it explores the relationship between electoral change and party system change, arguing that the systemic changes that have been emerging since the 2011 election are an extension of a longer-term trend in the opening up of the Irish party system. This incremental change was accelerated by the economic crisis that began in 2008 and its aftermath. The chapter suggests that the Irish party system is potentially at a critical juncture: a moment of uncertainty that provides opportunities for agency (by voters, party leaders, and others) to shape a durable future path.

Clashes Involving National Popular Vote, Hare (“RCV”), Maine, Alaska

ABSTRACT Apparently unnoticed by its advocates, a prominent effort to improve the troubled US presidential-election system—the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC)—is on a collision course with another effort at electoral change—“ranked-choice voting” (RCV, known previously by less ambiguous names). The NPVIC is a clever device intended, without constitutional amendment, to elect as president the nationwide popular-vote winner (i.e., the plurality-vote winner) rather than the electoral-vote winner. Election results in 2000, 2016, and 2020 enhanced its support. However, the (constitutional) ability of even one state to replace its plurality voting with another voting system causes the popular-vote total posited for the NPVIC to be undefined, thereby rendering the NPVIC unusable. Maine and Alaska recently switched from plurality voting to RCV for presidential elections. Consequently, tangled results and turmoil could occur with the NPVIC. To improve presidential elections, replacing plurality voting with other systems appears to be more sensible than pursuing the NPVIC.

Issue characterization of electoral change (and how recent elections in Western Europe were won on economic issues)

Results of the last electoral season in Western Europe have been mostly seen in the light of the success of challenger, anti-establishment parties. According to this narrative, past elections have been overwhelmingly dominated by cultural issues such as immigration and the EU. However, these accounts suffer from several limitations. First, they generally focus on the determinants of the static component of electoral results (i.e. vote choice) rather than the factors leading to vote change (i.e. the individual-level component of aggregate electoral change). Second, relying on party manifestos and programmatic platforms, they usually offer a party-based reconstruction of the general climate of elections. As a consequence, they provide only an indirect, at best limited, overview of the actual political issues that might have driven electoral results. To overcome these limitations, in this paper we introduce a new methodological strategy to characterize electoral results in comparative perspective. To do so we leverage an issue-rich public opinion dataset to estimate individual-level vote change towards each party as a function of issue-based party-voter affinity measures in 6 European countries. Relying on 38 logistic regression models (one for each party), our results contradict many current interpretations of electoral results in Western Europe, in fact showing that economic issues, rather than broad cultural ones, emerged as the most relevant predictors of vote inflows. Furthermore, it also demonstrates the relevance of “cross-ideological” mobilization across all the 6 countries covered in this study.

Not by turnout alone: Measuring the sources of electoral change, 2012 to 2016

Changes in partisan outcomes between consecutive elections must come from changes in the composition of the electorate or changes in the vote choices of consistent voters. How much composition versus conversion drives electoral change has critical implications for the policy mandates of election victories and campaigning and governing strategies. Here, we analyze electoral change between the 2012 and 2016 U.S. presidential elections using administrative data. We merge precinct-level election returns, the smallest geography at which vote counts are available, with individual-level turnout records from 37 million registered voters in six key states. We find that both factors were substantively meaningful drivers of electoral change, but the balance varied by state. We estimate that pro-Republican Party (GOP) conversion among two-election voters was particularly important in states including Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania where the pro-GOP swings were largest. Our results suggest conversion remains a crucial component of electoral change.