What Accounts for the German Labor Market Miracle? A Structural VAR Approach

This study examines the driving forces behind the strong decline in German unemployment from 2005 onwards and the exceptionally small increase during the Great Recession. Structural vector autoregressions (VARs) with sign restrictions show that wage moderation in the aftermath of labor market reforms was the dominant factor of the unemployment decline, and that improved matching and shrinking labor supply also contributed to it. The adjustment to business cycle shocks (Great Recession), on the other hand, is to a large extent borne by the intensive margin, which can be explained by institutional aspects of the German labor market.

How Does Fiscal Policy Affect Bank Credit? Evidence from China

Using a set of Chinese economic data and a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, this paper investigates the transmission channels of fiscal policy to bank credit in China. We find that increases in tax revenue can increase bank credit through external financing premium channel, collateral channel, and bank liquidity channel. We also find that increases in government spending can reduce bank credit through bank liquidity channel and increase bank credit through external financing premium channel and collateral channel.

Financial inclusion and monetary policy effectiveness: A sustainable development approach of developed and under-developed countries

The study explores the causal relationship between monetary policy effectiveness and financial inclusion in developed and under-developed countries. Structural Vector Auto-regressive techniques have been inducted to explore the relationship between monetary policy effectiveness and financial inclusion. The study covers the secondary data of 10 developed and 30 underdeveloped countries throughout 2004–2018. It is concluded that monetary policy effectiveness and financial inclusion do not have a contemporaneous impact on each other. Nevertheless, the reduced-form Vector Auto-regressive witness the reverse causality between financial inclusion and monetary policy effectiveness in developed countries. Thus, effective monetary policy enhances financial inclusion in a country, and a higher degree of financial inclusion lowers the inflation rate and makes monetary policy effective. One way causality from monetary policy effectiveness to financial inclusion can be observed in under-developed countries. Using the Structural Vector auto-regressive technique and financial inclusion index composed of three-dimension to examine the relationship of monetary policy effectiveness and financial inclusion in developed and developing countries is considered the study’s significant contribution.

An Analysis of the Dynamic Relationship between the Global Macroeconomy and Shipping and Shipbuilding Industries

Using time-series data from January 2006 to February 2021, this study analyzed the effect of macroeconomic shocks on the shipping and shipbuilding industries. The Granger causality test, recursive structural vector autoregressive models, impulse response analysis, historical decomposition, and local projections model were used to identify the dynamic relationships between the variables and their dynamic effects, based on the results of the theoretical model and previous research. First, the Granger causality test demonstrated that the macroeconomic variables have causal relations with the shipping and shipbuilding industries. Second, the recursive structural vector autoregressive estimation demonstrated that the direction of the shocks from macroeconomic variables is statistically significantly, consistent with the theoretical model. The same results were found in the recursive structural vector autoregressive model and local projection impulse response analysis. Finally, the historical decomposition identified the main causal variables affecting the shipping and shipbuilding industries by period. These findings can help policymakers, operators of shipping and shipbuilding companies, and investors evaluate and make policy-supporting decisions on industry conditions.

Cryptocurrency as a safe haven for investment portfolios amid COVID-19 panic cases of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin

PurposeThis article examines the susceptibility of cryptocurrencies to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) induced panic in comparison with major stock indices.Design/methodology/approachThe author employs the Bayesian structural vector autoregression to examine the phenomenon in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin from 2nd January 2020 to 30th June 2021. A similar analysis is conducted for major stock indices, namely S&P 500, FTSE 100 and SSE Composite for comparison purposes.FindingsThe results suggest that cryptocurrencies returns suffered immensely in the early days of the COVID-19 outbreak following declarations of the disease as a global health emergency and eventually a pandemic in March 2020. However, the returns for all three cryptocurrencies recovered by April 2020 and remained resistant to further COVID-19 panic shocks. The results are dissimilar to those of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and SSE Composite values which were vulnerable to COVID-19 panic throughout the timeframe to June 2021. The results further reveal strong predictive power of Bitcoin on prices of other cryptocurrencies.Research limitations/implicationsThe article provides evidence to support the cryptocurrency as a safe haven during COVID-19 school of thought given their resistance to subsequent shocks during COVID-19. Thus, the author stresses the need for diversification of investment portfolios by including cryptocurrencies given their uniqueness and resistance to shocks during crises.Originality/valueThe author makes use of the novel corona virus panic index to examine the magnitude of shocks in prices of cryptocurrencies during COVID-19.

Monetary and Fiscal Policies Interaction in a Large Emerging Economy: Which Is the Leader Policy?

This article analyzed the intertemporal interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in Brazil. We aimed at identifying if structural innovations to the real interest rate were able to induce unexpected effects on fiscal and inflation dynamics. To do so, we estimated Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models over the period from Jan/2004 to Apr/2019. Moreover, we filtered out the time series’ long-memory component through a fractional integration approach, so that we did not build our analysis on traditional unit root tests. The findings showed that monetary policy shocks robustly activated an unconventional transmission channel based on the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, i.e., an unexpected and induced change in primary surpluses, through a wealth effect, as mechanism to satisfy the Government’s intertemporal budget constraint. Such a result is strongly linked to another evidence, that is, the monetary policy`s role as a leader in shaping inflation over time.

Monetary and Fiscal Policies Interaction in a Large Emerging Economy: Which Is the Leader Policy?

This article analyzed the intertemporal interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in Brazil. We aimed at identifying if structural innovations to the real interest rate were able to induce unexpected effects on fiscal and inflation dynamics. To do so, we estimated Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models over the period from Jan/2004 to Apr/2019. Moreover, we filtered out the time series’ long-memory component through a fractional integration approach, so that we did not build our analysis on traditional unit root tests. The findings showed that monetary policy shocks robustly activated an unconventional transmission channel based on the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, i.e., an unexpected and induced change in primary surpluses, through a wealth effect, as mechanism to satisfy the Government’s intertemporal budget constraint. Such a result is strongly linked to another evidence, that is, the monetary policy`s role as a leader in shaping inflation over time.

The Sustainable Development Path of the Gold Exploration and Mining of the Sanshan Island-Jiaojia Belt in Laizhou Bay: A DID-SVAR Approach

Gold is a vital strategic resource, and it plays an irreplaceable role in maintaining national financial security, enhancing currency guarantee capabilities, and serving as a country's last means of payment. Gold plays an essential role in several fields that are vital to sustainable development. In 2020, an ultra-large-scale gold deposit spanning land and sea was discovered in Sanshan Island-Jiaojia Belt, Laizhou Bay, China. Its owner, Shandong Gold Group, also established Sanshan Island as a new ecological mine model. Applying a difference in differences-structural vector autoregression (DID-SVAR) approach, our research found that the whole biodiversity of Laizhou Bay decreased by 0.27% purely due to gold exploration in Sanshan Island-Jiaojia. In the long run, gold mining will have an apparent 2.9% adverse effect on marine products, and fishing for marine products will have a 2.1% adverse effect on marine products themselves.

Government investment fiscal multipliers: evidence from Euro-area countries

This paper aims to estimate the government investment fiscal multipliers in select European countries for the period 1970–2016. To do this, we combine Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) modeling with the Local Projections (LP) approach. We estimate models by also controlling for fiscal foresight, excluding the postcrisis period and distinguishing between Northern and Southern countries. Our findings suggest that an increase in government investment generates a “Keynesian effect” by engendering positive and permanent effects on the GDP level, even when government expenditure expectations are considered. Fiscal multipliers are close to 1 on impact and increase in the years after the implementation of a discretionary fiscal policy.