Determination of conditions for loss of bearing capacity of underground ammonia pipelines based on the monitoring data and flexible search algorithms

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Structural performance assessment considering both observed and latent environmental and operational conditions: A Gaussian process and probability principal component analysis method

Structural faults like damage and degradations will cause changes in structure response data. Performance assessment can be conducted by investigating such changes. In real implementations however, structural responses are affected by environmental and operational variations (EOVs) as well. Such variation should be well captured by the assessment model when detecting structural changes. It should be noted that not all EOVs can be measured by the monitoring system. When both observed and latent EOVs have significant effects on the monitored structural responses, these two effects should be considered properly. Furthermore, uncertainties can be significant for the monitoring data since loads and EOVs cannot be directly controlled under working conditions. To address these problems, this work proposes a performance assessment method considering both observed and latent EOVs. A Gaussian process is used to model the functional behaviour between structural response and observed EOVs whilst principal component analysis is used to eliminate the effect of latent EOVs. These two methods are combined using a Bayesian formulation and the effect of both observed and latent EOVs are modelled. The associated model parameters are inferred through probability density functions to account for the uncertainties. A synthetic data example is presented to validate the proposed method. It is also applied to the monitoring data of a long-span cable-stayed bridge with different damage scenarios considered, illustrating its capability of real implementations in structural health monitoring.

Accurate and Rapid Forecasts for Geologic Carbon Storage via Learning-Based Inversion-Free Prediction

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one approach being studied by the U.S. Department of Energy to help mitigate global warming. The process involves capturing CO2 emissions from industrial sources and permanently storing them in deep geologic formations (storage reservoirs). However, CCS projects generally target “green field sites,” where there is often little characterization data and therefore large uncertainty about the petrophysical properties and other geologic attributes of the storage reservoir. Consequently, ensemble-based approaches are often used to forecast multiple realizations prior to CO2 injection to visualize a range of potential outcomes. In addition, monitoring data during injection operations are used to update the pre-injection forecasts and thereby improve agreement between forecasted and observed behavior. Thus, a system for generating accurate, timely forecasts of pressure buildup and CO2 movement and distribution within the storage reservoir and for updating those forecasts via monitoring measurements becomes crucial. This study proposes a learning-based prediction method that can accurately and rapidly forecast spatial distribution of CO2 concentration and pressure with uncertainty quantification without relying on traditional inverse modeling. The machine learning techniques include dimension reduction, multivariate data analysis, and Bayesian learning. The outcome is expected to provide CO2 storage site operators with an effective tool for timely and informative decision making based on limited simulation and monitoring data.

An Ensemble Prognostic Method of Francis Turbine Units Using Low-Quality Data under Variable Operating Conditions

The prognostic is the key to the state-based maintenance of Francis turbine units (FTUs), which consists of performance state evaluation and degradation trend prediction. In practical engineering environments, there are three significant difficulties: low data quality, complex variable operation conditions, and prediction model parameter optimization. In order to effectively solve the above three problems, an ensemble prognostic method of FTUs using low-quality data under variable operation conditions is proposed in this study. Firstly, to consider the operation condition parameters, the running data set of the FTU is constructed by the water head, active power, and vibration amplitude of the top cover. Then, to improve the robustness of the proposed model against anomaly data, the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) is introduced to clean outliers and singularities in the raw running data set. Next, considering the randomness of the monitoring data, the healthy state model based on the Gaussian mixture model is constructed, and the negative log-likelihood probability is calculated as the performance degradation indicator (PDI). Furthermore, to predict the trend of PDIs with confidence interval and automatically optimize the prediction model on both accuracy and certainty, the multiobjective prediction model is proposed based on the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm and Gaussian process regression. Finally, monitoring data from an actual large FTU was used for effectiveness verification. The stability and smoothness of the PDI curve are improved by 3.2 times and 1.9 times, respectively, by DBSCAN compared with 3-sigma. The root-mean-squared error, the prediction interval normalized average, the prediction interval coverage probability, the mean absolute percentage error, and the R2 score of the proposed method achieved 0.223, 0.289, 1.000, 0.641%, and 0.974, respectively. The comparison experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is more robust to low-quality data and has better accuracy, certainty, and reliability for the prognostic of the FTU under complex operating conditions.