10 -Years Coronary Artery Disease Incidence and its Predictors in Overweight and Obese Adults Using A Competing Risk Model: A Longitudinal Study of Yazd Healthy Heart Cohort (YHHC)

We applied competing risk model to identify the predictors for Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) among 866 overweight and obese participants aged 20-74 years using their registered medical records in the first and second phase of Healthy Heart Cohort (YHHC) conducted in Yazd. These participants were free of coronary heart disease in the first phase of study. CAD was considered as the primary event and all other noncardiac deaths were considered as a competing event. The cumulative incidence of any CAD at the 5-year and 10-year follow-ups was approximately 6.8% and 10.6%, respectively, and approximately 4.6% and 8.5%, respectively, for all other noncardiac deaths. In both cause-specific and Fine-Gray models of risk factor diabetes type II, hypertriglyceridemia, university level of education (reversely), uric acid, age, systolic blood pressure and female gender (reversely) were associated with the increase risk of CAD. In addition to other traditional cardio metabolic risk factor we found that uric acid increased the risk of CAD in overweight and obese adults. It seems that lifestyle modification can reduce the risk of CAD. Also, high level of education had a protective effect on the risk of CAD. Both cause-specific and fine-gray models predicted similarly 10-years of CAD. The use of competing risk models in the presence of competing events is emphasized when interpreting survival studies.

Impact of single-room contact precautions on acquisition and transmission of vancomycin-resistant enterococci on haematological and oncological wards, multicentre cohort-study, Germany, January−December 2016

Background Evidence supporting the effectiveness of single-room contact precautions (SCP) in preventing in-hospital acquisition of vancomycin-resistant enterococci (haVRE) is limited. Aim We assessed the impact of SCP on haVRE and their transmission. Methods We conducted a prospective, multicentre cohort study in German haematological/oncological departments during 2016. Two sites performed SCP for VRE patients and two did not (NCP). We defined a 5% haVRE-risk difference as non-inferiority margin, screened patients for VRE, and characterised isolates by whole genome sequencing and core genome MLST (cgMLST). Potential confounders were assessed by competing risk regression analysis. Results We included 1,397 patients at NCP and 1,531 patients at SCP sites. Not performing SCP was associated with a significantly higher proportion of haVRE; 12.2% (170/1,397) patients at NCP and 7.4% (113/1,531) patients at SCP sites (relative risk (RR) 1.74; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.35–2.23). The difference (4.8%) was below the non-inferiority margin. Competing risk regression analysis indicated a stronger impact of antimicrobial exposure (subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) 7.46; 95% CI: 4.59–12.12) and underlying disease (SHR for acute leukaemia 2.34; 95% CI: 1.46–3.75) on haVRE than NCP (SHR 1.60; 95% CI: 1.14–2.25). Based on cgMLST and patient movement data, we observed 131 patient-to-patient VRE transmissions at NCP and 85 at SCP sites (RR 1.76; 95% CI: 1.33–2.34). Conclusions We show a positive impact of SCP on haVRE in a high-risk population, although the observed difference was below the pre-specified non-inferiority margin. Importantly, other factors including antimicrobial exposure seem to be more influential.

Risk of second primary malignancies associated with radiotherapy in prostate cancer patients: competing risk analysis

Background: The effect of radiotherapy (RT) for second primary malignancies (SPMs) among prostate cancer survivors is controversial. Methods: Applying logistic regression, competing risk analysis and propensity score matching method, this study analyzed clinical data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program to compare the risk for SPMs between patients receiving RT and non-RT. Results: In this study, prostate cancer patients treated with RT developed more SPMs in the anus, bladder, rectum, liver, lung and bronchus and lymphoma than non-RT groups. Conclusion: More intensive surveillance should be adopted for these cancers among prostate cancer survivors.

Respiratory-related death in individuals with incident asthma and COPD: a competing risk analysis

Background Distinguishing between mortality attributed to respiratory causes and other causes among people with asthma, COPD, and asthma-COPD overlap (ACO) is important. This study used electronic health records in England to estimate excess risk of death from respiratory-related causes after accounting for other causes of death. Methods We used linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) primary care and Office for National Statistics mortality data to identify adults with asthma and COPD from 2005 to 2015. Causes of death were ascertained using death certificates. Hazard ratios (HR) and excess risk of death were estimated using Fine-Gray competing risk models and adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, body mass index and socioeconomic status. Results 65,021 people with asthma and 45,649 with COPD in the CPRD dataset were frequency matched 5:1 with people without the disease on age, sex and general practice. Only 14 in 100,000 people with asthma are predicted to experience a respiratory-related death up to 10 years post-diagnosis, whereas in COPD this is 98 in 100,000. Asthma is associated with an 0.01% excess incidence of respiratory related mortality whereas COPD is associated with an 0.07% excess. Among people with asthma-COPD overlap (N = 22,145) we observed an increased risk of respiratory-related death compared to those with asthma alone (HR = 1.30; 95% CI 1.21–1.40) but not COPD alone (HR = 0.89; 95% CI 0.83–0.94). Conclusions Asthma and COPD are associated with an increased risk of respiratory-related death after accounting for other causes; however, diagnosis of COPD carries a much higher probability. ACO is associated with a lower risk compared to COPD alone but higher risk compared to asthma alone.

Associations of Chronic Kidney Disease With Dementia Before and After Transient Ischemic Attack and Stroke: Population-Based Cohort Study

Objective:Individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) appear to be at increased risk of cognitive impairment, with both vascular and neurodegenerative mechanisms postulated. To explore the vascular hypothesis, we studied the association between CKD and dementia before and after transient ischaemic attack (TIA) and stroke.Methods:In a prospective, population-based cohort study of TIA and stroke (Oxford Vascular Study; 2002-2012), pre-event and new post-event dementia were ascertained through direct patient assessment and follow-up for 5 years, supplemented by review of hospital/primary care records. Associations between pre-event dementia and CKD (defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] < 60 ml/min/1.73m2) were examined using logistic regression, and between post-event dementia and CKD using Cox and competing risk regression models, adjusted for age, sex, education, stroke severity, prior stroke, white matter disease, diabetes mellitus, and dysphasia.Results:Among 2305 TIA/stroke patients (median [IQR] age, 77 [67-84] years, 1133 [49%] male, 688 [30%] TIA), 1174 (50.9%) had CKD. CKD was associated with both pre-event (odds ratio [OR], 2.04 [95% CI, 1.52–2.72]; P<0.001) and post-event dementia (hazard ratio [HR], 2.01 [95% CI, 1.65–2.44]; P<0.001), but these associations attenuated after adjustment for covariates (OR=0.92 [0.65-1.31]; p=0.65 and HR=1.09 [0.85-1.39]; p=0.50). The results were similar when a competing risk model was used (subdistribution HR [SHR] =1.74 [1.43-2.12; p<0.001, attenuating to 1.01 [0.78-1.33]; p=0.92 with adjustment). CKD was more strongly associated with late (>1 year) post-event dementia (SHR=2.32, 1.70-3.17; p<0.001), particularly after TIA and minor stroke (SHR=3.08, 2.05-4.64; p<0.001), but not significantly so after adjustment (SHR=1.53, 0.90-2.60; p=0.12).Conclusions:In patients with TIA and stroke, CKD was not independently associated with either pre- or post-event dementia, suggesting that renal-specific mechanisms are unlikely to play an important role in aetiology.

Management of Invasive Fungal Infections in Patients Undergoing Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation: The Turin Experience

BackgroundAllogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (allo-HSCT) recipients are exposed to an increased risk of invasive fungal infections (IFIs) due to neutropenia, immunosuppressive treatments, graft-versus-host disease (GvHD) and incomplete immune reconstitution. Although clinical benefit from antifungal prophylaxis has been demonstrated, IFIs remain a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in these patients. In the last decades, attention has also been focused on potential risk factors for IFI to tailor an antifungal prevention strategy based on risk stratification.Aim of the StudyThis retrospective single-center study aimed to assess the epidemiology and the prognostic factors of IFI in a large cohort of allo-HSCT patients.MethodsBetween January 2004 and December 2020, 563 patients with hematological malignancies received an allo-HSCT at the Stem Cell Transplant Unit in Turin: 191 patients (34%) received grafts from a matched sibling donor, 284 (50.5%) from a matched unrelated donor, and 87 (15.5%) from an haploidentical family member. The graft source was peripheral blood in 81.5% of the patients. Our policy for antifungal prophylaxis included fluconazole in matched related and unrelated donors, while micafungin was administered in patients receiving haploidentical transplant. According to this practice, fluconazole was administered in 441 patients (79.6%) and micafungin in 62 (11.2%), while only 9 patients received mold-active prophylaxis. Galactomannan testing was routinely performed twice a week; patients with persisting fever unresponsive to broad spectrum antibiotics were evaluated with lung high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) scan. In case of imaging suggestive of IFI, bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) was performed whenever feasible.Statistical AnalysisOnly probable/proven IFI (PP-IFI) occurring during the first 12 months after transplant have been evaluated. IFIs were classified as probable or proven according to the new revised European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC)/Mycoses Study Group (MSG) consensus criteria. Multivariate competing risk regression, binary logistic, and proportional hazard models were performed to identify risk factors for PP-IFI.ResultsA total of 58 PP-IFIs (n = 47 probable; n = 11 proven) occurred in our patients resulting in a cumulative incidence of 4.1%, 8.1%, and 9.6% at 30, 180, and 365 days, respectively. Molds were the predominant agents (n = 50 Aspergillus; n = 1 Mucor), followed by invasive candidemia (n = 5 non-albicans Candida; n = 1 Candida albicans; n = 1 Trichosporon). Lung was the most frequent site involved in patients with mold infections (47/51, 92.2%). Median time from HSCT to IFI was 98.44 days (0–365 days). Only 34.5% of patients with IFI were neutropenic at the time of infection. The presence of IFI had a significant impact on overall survival at 1 year (IFI, 32.8% vs. non-IFI, 54.6%; p &lt; 0.001). IFI-related mortality rate was 20.7% in the overall population, 17% in patients with probable IFI, and 36% in patients with proven IFI. Multivariate competing risk regression revealed that donor type was the factor significantly associated to the risk of IFI [subdistribution hazard ratio (SDHR), 1.91, IC 1.13–3.20; p = 0.015]. BAL was informative in a consistent number of cases (36/57, 63.2%) leading to the identification of fungal (21), bacterial (4), viral (3), and polymicrobial (8) infections. Overall, 79 patients (14%) received a diagnostic-driven treatment, and 63 patients (11.2%) received a fever-driven treatment. Liposomal amphoteric B was the drug used in the majority of patients receiving diagnostic-driven therapy (30/79, 38%), while caspofungin was administered more frequently in patients who received a fever-driven strategy (27/63, 42.9%).ConclusionAccording to our experience, a non-mold active prophylaxis in patients undergoing allo-HSCT is feasible when combined with an intensive diagnostic work-up including CT scan and BAL. BAL performed at the onset of the disease may provide informative results in most patients. A diagnostic-driven treatment strategy may contribute to limit the use of costly antifungal therapies.

Competing Risk Analysis of Outcomes of Unresectable Pancreatic Cancer Patients Undergoing Definitive Radiotherapy

PurposeWe investigated potential factors, including clinicopathological features, treatment modalities, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 level, tumor responses correlating with overall survival (OS), local progression (LP), and distant metastases (DMs), in patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) who received definitive radiotherapy (RT).MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed demographic characteristics; biologically effective doses (BED10, calculated with an α/β of 10) of RT; and clinical outcomes of 57 unresectable LAPC (all pancreatic adenocarcinoma) patients receiving definitive RT using modern techniques with and without systemic therapy between January 2009 and March 2019 at our institution. We used Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) version 1.1 to evaluate the radiographic tumor response after RT. The association between prognostic factors and OS was assessed using the Kaplan–Meier analysis and a Cox regression model, whereas baseline characteristics and treatment details were collected for competing-risk regression of the association with LP and DM using the Fine–Gray model.ResultsA median BED10 of 67.1 Gy resulted in a disease control rate of 87.7%, and the median OS was 11.8 months after a median follow-up of 32.1 months. The 1-year OS rate, cumulative incidences of LP, and DM were 49.2%, 38.5%, and 62.9%, respectively. Multivariate analyses showed that pre-RT NLR ≥3.5 (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 8.245, p &lt; 0.001), CA19-9 reduction rate ≥50% (adjusted HR = 0.261, p = 0.005), RT without concurrent chemoradiotherapy (adjusted HR = 5.903, p = 0.004), and administration of chemotherapy after RT (adjusted HR = 0.207, p = 0.03) were independent prognostic factors for OS. Positive lymph nodal metastases (adjusted subdistribution HR [sHR] = 3.712, p = 0.003) and higher tumor reduction after RT (adjusted sHR = 0.922, p &lt; 0.001) were significant prognostic factors for LP, whereas BED10 ≥ 67.1 Gy (adjusted sHR = 0.297, p = 0.002), CA19-9 reduction rate ≥50% (adjusted sHR = 0.334, p = 0.023), and RT alone (adjusted sHR = 2.633, p = 0.047) were significant prognostic factors for DM.ConclusionOur results indicate that pre-RT NLR and post-RT monitoring of CA19-9 and tumor size reduction can help identify whether patients belong to the good or poor prognostic group of LAPC. The incorporation of new systemic treatments during and after a higher BED10 RT dose for LAPC patients is warranted.