Motif dan Kepentingan China dalam Pembentukan Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)

The establishment of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) began because of the conflict between China and Japan. The establishment of RCEP is to create the largest trade agreement in the world because this cooperation unites regional countries with large economies. China as a country that has the largest economic level among RCEP member countries makes China control most of the market in the region. This RCEP helps China in dealing with the trade war between China and the United States, although it has not yet had a big impact. This paper uses a qualitative method and focuses on China's motives in determining the RCEP. The results of this study confirm that China's motive in determining the RCEP is to counter-balance with the TPP and China's good image to Southeast Asian countries. In addition, RCEP has a significant impact on the Chinese economy.

THE MAIN TRENDS OF VIETNAM - JAPAN COOPERATION WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF BILATERAL STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP

The article examines the process of formation and development of the comprehensive political and trade and economic cooperation between Japan and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam since 1973, when diplomatic relations were established between the two countries, and then received a new impetus after Vietnam started the market reforms in 1986 and commenced the renewal policy (in Vietnamese – “Đổi Mới”). In 2009, Japan and Vietnam decided to raise the bilateral relations to the level of strategic partnership for the common interests of both countries. In 2010, as part of the official visit of the Prime Minister of Japan to Vietnam, a Joint Declaration on strategic cooperation for peace and prosperity in Asia was adopted.The article focuses on cooperation between the two countries in the framework of international and regional organizations, in particular in the framework of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, as well as in the framework of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, in which Japan and ASEAN member states participate. In recent decades Japan has been one of Vietnam’s main foreign economic partners and the second largest investor into Vietnamese economy. At the same time, Japan is the largest sponsor of Vietnam through the Official development assistance program (ODA), actively assisting Vietnam in implementing its national strategy of industrialization and modernization under the framework agreement on cooperation between Vietnam and Japan until 2020 with the prospect of 2030. Besides, the article discusses and analyzes the largest joint projects implemented in Vietnam with the technical and financial assistance from Japan.

ANALISIS PERDAGANGAN INTRA INDUSTRI REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP (RCEP) PADA PRODUK PERTANIAN

Abstrak Perdagangan intra-industri memainkan peranan penting dalam literatur ekonomi internasional saat ini. Pada tahun 2019, total ekspor Indonesia ke negara-negara anggota RCEP sebesar 61,65% dari total ekspor Indonesia, dan 44% dari total ekspor ke RCEP disumbang oleh sektor pertanian. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji tingkat interdependensi Indonesia dengan 14 mitra dagangnya dalam RCEP. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder time series arus perdagangan komoditi pertanian Indonesia dengan negara-negara RCEP di tahun 2010-2019 yang diperoleh dari Trademap. Metode analisis data yang digunakan adalah intra-industry trade index. Hasil kajian pola perdagangan Indonesia dan RCEP yang diidentifikasi melalui keterkaitan perdagangan (IIT) menunjukkan komoditas yang memiliki nilai rata-rata IIT tertinggi adalah olahan tepung-tepungan (HS 19). Hal ini menunjukkan jika keterkaitan perdagangan Indonesia RCEP untuk produk tepung-tepungan (HS 19) bersifat dua arah (two-way trade). Sedangkan untuk negara, Malaysia adalah negara yang memiliki keterkaitan perdagangan terkuat dengan Indonesia. Nilai rata-rata IIT Indonesia-RCEP sebesar 19,74 menggambarkan keterkaitan banyak produk pertanian Indonesia dan RCEP yang masih rendah dan tergolong inter-industry trade. Rendahnya nilai IIT ini bisa saja disebabkan masih besarnya perdagangan satu arah di RCEP, dimana Indonesia masih dominan melakukan impor. Oleh karena itu, penting bagi pemerintah untuk lebih meningkatkan ekspor komoditas potensial dengan memberi insentif kepada industri pengolahan produk pertanian melalui keringanan pajak dalam jangka waktu tertentu. Kata kunci: Intra-industry Trade, RCEP, Sektor Pertanian Abstract Intra-industrial trade plays an important role in today's international economic literature. In 2019, Indonesia's total exports to RCEP member countries amounted to 61.65% of Indonesia's total exports, and 44% of total exports to RCEP were contributed by the agricultural sector. This study aims to examine the level of interdependence between Indonesia and its 14 trading partners in RCEP. The data used is secondary data from the time series of trade flows of agricultural commodities between Indonesia and RCEP countries in 2010-2019 which were obtained from Trademap. The data analysis method used is the intra-industry trade index. The results of the study show, if there is a tendency to increase the IIT index of Indonesia with trading partners, it's just that when viewed from each RCEP member, the IIT value still tends to fluctuate. Malaysia is an RCEP member country with the highest IIT score in its agricultural sector, on the other hand, the agricultural sector in Cambodia has the lowest IIT score. Cereal and flour processed commodities (HS 19) were the commodities with the highest IIT, while meat and edible meat scraps (HS 02) were the commodities with the lowest value. Based on the results of the IIT value, it can be seen that many agricultural products are still classified as inter-industry trade. Therefore, it is important for the government to further increase potential commodity exports by providing incentives to processing agricultural industries through tax breaks for a certain period. Keywords: Intra-industry Trade, RCEP, Agricultural Sector JEL Classification: F10, F13, F1

India’s Withdrawal from Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)

The Sino-US competition in the Indo-Pacific has become a central issue in international relations and how the competition of both countries affects state behavior. This article attempts to provide explanations of India's behavior in deciding to leave the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement by using the neoclassical realism theory. Neoclassical realism believes that the actors' behavior is influenced by the constellation of international structures and domestic constellations. India's exit from RCEP was influenced by structural changes in the Indo-Pacific region, with the loss of China's balance of power marked by the withdrawal of the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Moreover, the condition has been exacerbated by the pressure received by Narendra Modi at the domestic level with the emergence of rejection of India's involvement in RCEP. It has influenced Narendra Modi's perception, who was active in the region with the two factors above, decided to resign from RCEP.

Indonesia’s coffee and cocoa agribusiness opportunities in Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade cooperation

Following the agreement of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in 2015, it has been approved that cooperation between ASEAN and the other five partner countries, namely China, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and Korea, has been bound in new economic partnerships, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The main objective of RCEP is to empower economic integrity and enhance the economic development of respective member countries. Coffee and cocoa are two of Indonesia’s important estate commodities for exports. A study focusing on coffee and cocoa agribusiness development to take advantage of RCEP was conducted in several production centers of rural areas. This paper aims to analyze the role of coffee and cocoa business in RCEP trade cooperation by: (i) understanding and analyzing trade on RCEP using RCA and RO, (ii) reviewing trade development in RCEP toward Indonesia’s coffee and cocoa performance using Gereffi analysis. This study was conducted in North Sumatra and South Sulawesi provinces. The study revealed an opportunity for coffee and cocoa to increase their market in the RCEP region but only with its high quality. Coffee and cocoa should be well prepared with significant, integrative, and comprehensive improvement. The government is suggested increasing the production and productivity of coffee and cocoa through intensive extension and closely working with the farmers.

Chinese Economic Diplomacy before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The process of globalization has turned international economy into an arena of direct and indirect conflict of interests of various actors. It has also provided states with a new tool for their foreign policy activity — economic diplomacy. The paper focuses on the economic diplomacy of the People’s Republic of China, which not only has become the second important center of the world economy, but is starting to realize its increased capabilities, demonstrating ambitions of a new leader in international relations. The first section outlines the main features of the PRC’s economic diplomacy. The second section focuses on the key areas and specific mechanisms of the so-called incentive economic diplomacy. In this regard, the author emphasizes two trends: on the one hand, China aims at effectively integrating into existing international formats and institutions of global economic governance, but, on the other hand, it shows willingness to take the lead and initiate its own ambitious projects. The Silk Road Fund and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) as well as the mega-project ‘The Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road’ are the most striking examples of the latter trend. Incentive economic diplomacy also serves as an important tool for strengthening the soft-power potential of the PRC in the international arena, especially in developing countries. At the same time, the author stresses that in recent years the PRC resorts more actively to the use of offensive forms of economic diplomacy, such as sanctions. This trend is examined in the third section of the paper. The international crisis provoked by SARS-CoV-2 pandemic became a moment of truth and a stress test for the new foreign policy system of the PRC. The fourth section analyses new challenges faced by China’s economic diplomacy in the context of the pandemic. These challenges have both an objective (the need for quick national economic recovery) and subjective dimensions. The latter implies the wholescale information war as the PRC and the countries of the collective West led by the United States started playing blame game. The author notes that, under these circumstances the PRC’s ‘COVID-19 diplomacy’ becomes more aggressive, which negatively affects the already tarnished national image. However, the author concludes, that although the current Chinese economic diplomacy generates rather negative sentiments in both developed and developing countries, it is exactly economic diplomacy that could, if properly used, help the PRC to establish itself as a leading actor in the new bipolar world order.

Way of Authoritarian Regional Hegemon? Formation of the RCEP From the Perspective of China

How has China contributed toward the conclusion of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)? The extant literature tends to either undervalue China’s role or emphasizes the absence of China’s willingness to realize the RCEP. However, it is difficult to form region-wide multilateral preferential trade agreements (PTAs), such as RCEP, without any significant contribution from a regional hegemon, such as China. This paper, thus, argues that China has contributed significantly toward the conclusion of RCEP by engendering incentives for member countries to join through multiple cooperative structures. These cooperative structures involve China-led bilateral PTAs and international development forums, which include the Belt and Road Initiative and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. With the gradual shift from bilateral to multilateral PTAs and forum-linkage strategies, China turned to be more assertive in concluding the RCEP than in the early years of RCEP negotiations, as evidenced by the discourse of political and opinion leaders.

India–ASEAN Relations: Riding and Transcending the “Indo-Pacific” Wave

This paper surveys India–ASEAN relations since the late 1990s amid the ongoing quest for a new regional compact in a post-pandemic era to advance India’s growing security and economic interests in Southeast Asia. During the cold war, India preferred to engage bilaterally with Southeast Asian countries than engage ASEAN directly. This tack shifted after 2000 as new security challenges arrived, particularly the need to secure the Indian Ocean. India’s overtures with ASEAN and ASEAN states grew alongside defense cooperation, which are now being renewed and renegotiated under the “Indo-Pacific” rubric despite differences over how India and ASEAN states regard the concept. Economic liberalization changed India’s calculus in the 1980s, which led to a series of overtures to economically tether India to the ASEAN. India–ASEAN trade grew dramatically over the last decade but fears abound over whether India’s rejection of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement will reverse its economic footprint in Southeast Asia. Given both security and economic differences between India and the ASEAN, opportunities exist in joining to address shared transnational challenges like cybersecurity and counterterrorism.

Economic Implications of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership for Asia and the Pacific

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) presents strong potential to mold regional trade and investment patterns well into the future and to influence the direction of global economic cooperation at a challenging time. This paper evaluates the RCEP’s impact on global and regional incomes, trade, economic structure, factor returns, and employment using a computable general equilibrium model. The results suggest that the RCEP agreement could generate sizable global income gains. Together with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership, the RCEP will also strengthen the region’s manufacturing supply chains, raising productivity and increasing wages and employment.