Recurrent Multinomial Models for Categorical Sequences

This paper presents a model of recurrent multinomial sequences. Though there exists a quite considerable literature on modeling autocorrelation in numerical data and sequences of categorical outcomes, there is currently no systematic method of modeling patterns of recurrence in categorical sequences. This paper develops a means of discovering recurrent patterns by employing a more restrictive Markov assumption. The resulting model, which I call the recurrent multinomial model, provides a parsimonious representation of recurrent sequences, enabling the investigation of recurrences on longer time scales than existing models. The utility of recurrent multinomial models is demonstrated by applying them to the case of conversational turn-taking in meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Analyses are effectively able to discover norms around turn-reclaiming, participation, and suppression and to evaluate how these norms vary throughout the course of the meeting.

Words Speak as Loudly as Actions: Central Bank Communication and the Response of Equity Prices to Macroeconomic Announcements

While the literature has already widely documented the effects of macroeconomic news announcements on asset prices, as well as their asymmetric impact during good and bad times, we focus on the reaction to news based on the description of the state of the economy as painted by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements. We develop a novel FOMC sentiment index using textual analysis techniques, and find that news has a bigger (smaller) effect on equity prices during bad (good) times as described by the FOMC sentiment index. Our analysis suggests that the FOMC sentiment index offers a reading on current and future macroeconomic conditions that will affect the probability of a change in interest rates, and the reaction of equity prices to news depends on the FOMC sentiment index which is one of the best predictors of this probability.

Forward Guidance and Corporate Lending

We suggest that forward guidance, via publicly committing the central bank to future actions and creating associated expectations, fundamentally affects bank lending decisions independently of other forms of monetary policy. To test this hypothesis, we build a forward guidance measure based on the language used in the Federal Open Market Committee meetings and match this measure with syndicated loans. Our results show that expansionary forward guidance decreases corporate loan spreads and that this effect is stronger for well-capitalized banks lending to riskier firms. Forward guidance also affects nonprice lending terms, such as covenants, performance pricing provisions, and the loan syndicate structure. Additionally, banks tend to initiate new lending relationships with lower spreads after forward guidance issuance.

Forecasting FOMC Forecasts

(Hendry 1980, p. 403) The three golden rules of econometrics are “test, test, and test”. The current paper applies that approach to model the forecasts of the Federal Open Market Committee over 1992–2019 and to forecast those forecasts themselves. Monetary policy is forward-looking, and as part of the FOMC’s effort toward transparency, the FOMC publishes its (forward-looking) economic projections. The overall views on the economy of the FOMC participants–as characterized by the median of their projections for inflation, unemployment, and the Fed’s policy rate–are themselves predictable by information publicly available at the time of the FOMC’s meeting. Their projections also communicate systematic behavior on the part of the FOMC’s participants.

Resilience of Islamic cryptocurrency markets to Covid-19 shocks and the Federal Reserve policy

PurposeAfter the COVID-19 outbreak, the Federal Reserve has undertaken several monetary policies to alleviate the pandemic consequences on the stock markets leading to a misunderstanding on the cryptocurrency market response. This paper aims to evaluate the effects of the Federal Reserve monetary policy on the Islamic and conventional cryptocurrency dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic. We, specifically, examine the associate bubbles and feedbacks effects.Design/methodology/approachThis paper developed a novel methodology that detects market bubbles using the statistical indicators defined by Psychological (PSY) tests. It also investigated the effect of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements on conventional and Islamic cryptocurrencies compatible with Islamic laws “Shari’ah” by using the event-driven regression.FindingsThe empirical results show that the FOMC announcements have a positive significant effect after one day of the event and a negative effect before two days of the announcement on the conventional cryptocurrency markets. However, the reaction of Islamic cryptocurrencies to these events is not significant except for Hello Gold after one day of the announcement. Besides, the Hello Gold and X8X cryptocurrencies present no bubbles during this period. However, Bitcoin and Ethereum markets have short-lived bubbles.Research limitations/implicationsThe main contribution of this study is the investigation of the response and vulnerability to pandemic shocks of a new category of cryptocurrencies backed by tangible assets. This work has practical implications as it provides new insights into trading opportunities and market reactions.Originality/valueTo our knowledge, this work is the first study that compares the response of Islamic and conventional cryptocurrency markets to FOMC announcements during the COVID-19 pandemic and examines the presence of bubbles in these markets. Besides, the originality of this work is derived from the novelty of the data employed and the method used (PSY tests) in this study.

Inflation Thresholds and Policy-Rule Inertia: Some Simulation Results

In August 2020, the Federal Open Market Committee approved a revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy (FOMC, 2020) and in the subsequent FOMC meetings, the Committee made material changes to its forward guidance to bring it in line with the new framework. Clarida (2021) characterizes the new framework as comprising a number of key features.

Cryptocurrency bubble risk and the FOMC announcements during COVID-19 black swan event

Purpose After the COVID-19 outbreak, the Federal Reserve has undertaken several monetary policies to alleviate the pandemic consequences on the markets. This paper aims to evaluate the effects of the Federal Reserve monetary policy on the cryptocurrency dynamics during the COVID19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach We examine the response and feedback effects via an event study methodology. For this purpose, abnormal returns (AR) and cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) around the first FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) announcement related to the COVID-19 pandemic for the top five cryptocurrencies are explored. We, further investigate the effect of the eight FOMC statement announcements during the COVID19 pandemic on these cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Litecoin, and Ripple). In the above-mentioned crypto-currency markets, we investigate the presence of bubbles by using the PSY test. We then examine the concordance of the dates of these bubbles with the dates of the FOMC announcements. Findings The empirical results show that the first FOMC event has a negative significant effect after 4 days of the announcement date for all studied cryptocurrencies except Tether. The results also indicate that cumulative abnormal returns are significant during the event windows of (−3,8), (−3,9), and (−3,10). Besides, we find that Bitcoin, Ethereum and, Litecoin lived short bubbles lasting for a few days. However, Ripple and Tether markets present no bubbles and no explosive periods. Research limitations/implications This paper presents trained proof that FOMC announcements have a positive effect on volatility's predictive capacity. This work therefore promotes the study of the data quality of volatility in future research as well. Practical implications The justified effect of the FOMC announcements on cryptocurrency as a speculative asset has practical implications for investors in building their trading strategies in anticipation of the next FOMC announcement. Therefore, this study implies that the FOMC announcements contain very relevant information for investors in the cryptocurrency market. This research may not only encourage a better understanding of the evolution of the expectations of policymakers, but also facilitate a better understanding of how these expectations are developed. Originality/value The COVID-19 pandemic has disturbed the stability of financial markets, inciting the Fed to take some monetary regulations. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first one that analyses the response of five major cryptocurrencies to FOMC announcements during COVID 19 pandemic and associates these dates with bubble occurrences.

How Do Principal Trading Firms and Dealers Trade around FOMC Statement Releases?

This FEDS Note examines how different types of market participants transact in the Treasury market in the periods immediately following statement releases at the conclusion of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. We compare intermediation patterns following scheduled statement releases with those following an unscheduled statement release.