Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: New Context for EU-Russia Relations

The article examines the introduction of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) as part of the EU economy decarbonization. The implementation of this initiative poses certain risks for the EU trading partners. Moreover, this issue is extremely important for the entire global trading system. The purpose of the study is to assess the real threats of the mechanism for Russian companies and identify opportunities for successful adaptation to the new green realities. The theoretical approaches and prerequisites for the CBAM introduction are analyzed, its systemic effects for companies around the world are shown. The channels and possible scale of this measure’s impact on Russian exporters are considered. The authors analyze the main possible response scenarios for Russia. The most promising scenarios could be: a) intensification of the carbon-free energy and increasing the energy efficiency of production processes, 2) development of an alternative compensatory mechanism, 3) integration into the regional emissions trading system. A possible challenge of the CBAM introduction in the WTO may be ineffective; cooperation with countries outside the “green agenda” – counterproductive. It is concluded that there are opportunities for Russian companies to strengthen their competitiveness due to CBAM requirements. However, there is a lack of expertise in a number of areas and levels, which can hinder the implementation of these opportunities.

Rooftop PV: Potential and Impacts in a Complex Territory

When developing a sustainability plan in a complex and heavily urbanized territory, one of the most relevant options available is installing rooftop photovoltaic (PV) panels. Thus, it is essential to determine the amount of available surface and the potential impact of such installations on the energy and emission budget of the area. Instead of processing remotely sensed imagery, which is a long process and does not allow considering the buildings’ ownership, this study develops an approach based on a cluster analysis of the urban/morphological characteristics of the municipalities. Once a clear group diversification is obtained, the roof surface of the center of gravity of each cluster is extrapolated to all similar settlements. This, together with the information of local solar irradiation, allowed us to compute each cluster’s potential solar energy production and its capability to respond to the local energy demand, a key parameter to decide about the possibility of a local smart electricity network. Finally, the emissions avoided thanks to solar PV development are computed in terms of carbon dioxide and other relevant pollutants. This approach is applied to the residential rooftop of Lombardy, a Northern Italy region with a wide variety of urban morphologies and landscapes. The potential production of rooftop PV exceeds the estimated electricity consumption of residential buildings and would allow sparing almost 4 M ton of CO2 equivalent or 5% of the overall regional emissions.

Temporary pause in the growth of atmospheric ethane and propane in 2015–2018

Atmospheric non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) play an important role in the formation of secondary organic aerosols and ozone. After a multidecade global decline in atmospheric mole fractions of ethane and propane – the most abundant atmospheric NMHCs – previous work has shown a reversal of this trend with increasing atmospheric abundances from 2009 to 2015 in the Northern Hemisphere. These concentration increases were attributed to the unprecedented growth in oil and natural gas (O&NG) production in North America. Here, we supplement this trend analysis building on the long-term (2008–2010; 2012–2020) high-resolution (~3-hour) record of ambient air C2-C7 NMHCs from in-situ measurements at the Greenland Environmental Observatory at Summit station (GEOSummit, 72.58° N, 38.48° W, 3210 m above sea level). We confirm previous findings that the ethane mole fraction significantly increased by +69.0 [+47.4, +73.2; 95 % confidence interval] ppt per year from January 2010 to December 2014. Subsequent measurements, however, reveal a significant decrease by −58.4 [−64.1, −48.9] ppt per year from January 2015 to December 2018. A similar reversal is found for propane. The upturn observed after 2019 suggests, however, that the pause in the growth of atmospheric ethane and propane might only have been temporary. The analysis of 2012–2019 air mass back-trajectories shows that this pause in mole fraction increases can neither be attributed to changes in atmospheric transport nor to changes in regional emissions. Discrete samples collected at other northern-hemisphere baseline sites under the umbrella of the NOAA cooperative global air sampling network show a similar decrease in 2015–2018 and suggest a hemispheric pattern. Here, we further discuss the potential contribution of biomass burning and O&NG emissions, the main sources of ethane and propane, and we conclude that O&NG activities likely played a role in these recent changes. This study, however, highlights the crucial need for better constrained emission inventories.

Continuous CH4 and d13CH4 measurements in London demonstrate under-reported natural gas leakage

<p>Assessment of bottom-up greenhouse gas emissions estimates through independent methods is needed to demonstrate whether reported values are accurate or if bottom-up methodologies need to be refined. Previous studies of measurements of atmospheric methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) in London revealed that inventories substantially underestimated the amount of natural gas CH<sub>4</sub><sup> 1,2</sup>. We report atmospheric CH<sub>4</sub> concentrations and δ<sup>13</sup>CH<sub>4</sub> measurements from Imperial College London since early 2018 using a Picarro G2201-i analyser. Measurements from Sept. 2019-Oct. 2020 were compared to the values simulated using the dispersion model NAME coupled with the UK national atmospheric emissions inventory, NAEI, and the global inventory, EDGAR, for emissions outside the UK. Simulations of CH<sub>4</sub> concentration and δ<sup>13</sup>CH<sub>4</sub> values were generated using nested NAME back-trajectories with horizontal spatial resolutions of 2 km, 10 km and 30 km. Observed concentrations were underestimated in the simulations by 22 % for all data, and by 16 % when using only 13:00-17:00 data. There was no correlation between the measured and simulated δ<sup>13</sup>CH<sub>4</sub> values. On average, simulated natural gas mole fractions accounted for 28 % of the CH<sub>4 </sub>added by regional emissions, and simulated water sector mole fractions accounted for 32 % of the CH<sub>4</sub>added by regional emissions. To estimate the isotopic source signatures for individual pollution events, an algorithm was created for automatically analysing measurement data by using the Keeling plot approach. Nearly 70 % of isotopic source values were higher than -50 ‰, suggesting the primary CH<sub>4 </sub>sources in London are natural gas leaks. The model-data comparison of δ<sup>13</sup>CH<sub>4 </sub>and Keeling plot results both indicate that emissions due to natural gas leaks in London are being underestimated in the UK NAEI and EDGAR.</p><p> </p><p><sup>1 </sup>Helfter, C. et al. (2016), Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16(16), pp. 10543-10557</p><p><sup>2</sup> Zazzeri, G. et al. (2017), Scientific Reports, 7(1), pp. 1-13</p>

ESTIMATING HEALTH CO-BENEFITS OF CLIMATE POLICIES IN CHINA: AN APPLICATION OF THE REGIONAL EMISSIONS-AIR QUALITY-CLIMATE-HEALTH (REACH) FRAMEWORK

Climate policies can bring local air quality and health co-benefits, which may partially or entirely offset the costs of implementing these policies. In this study, we introduce an integrated health co-benefits assessment model, the Regional Emissions-Air quality-Climate-Health (REACH) Modeling Framework, which is capable of evaluating the impact of policies on air pollution-related mortality and morbidity in the whole economic system overtime at the provincial level for China. We first provide a detailed description of the modeling framework and conduct a case study to estimate the health benefits of different climate policy scenarios. We show that a scenario consistent with the 2∘C target that peaks China’s emissions before 2025 could avoid around 190 thousand premature deaths in 2030. The health benefits could partially or fully cover the policy costs under different assumptions of the value of a statistical life (VSL). Our framework also illustrates that estimated costs and health benefits distribute unevenly across regions in China.

Assessment of CH4 sources in the Arctic using regional atmospheric measurements and their link to surface emissions

<p>The Arctic is a critical area in terms of global warming. Not only are the rising temperatures already causing changes in the natural conditions of this region, but the high potential of increased methane (<span>CH</span><sub><span>4</span></sub>) regional emissions are also likely to intensify global warming even stronger in the near term.</p><p>This future effect consists in the thawing and destabilization of inland and sub-sea permafrost that enhance the release of methane into the atmosphere from extensive <span>CH</span><sub><span>4</span></sub> and organic carbon pools which have so far been shielded by ice and frozen soil. Moreover, the high latitude regions are already playing a key role in the global <span>CH</span><sub><span>4</span></sub>-budget because of such large sources as wetlands and freshwater lakes in addition to human activities, predominantly the fossil fuel industry of the Arctic nations.</p><p>However, the level of scientific understanding of the actual contribution of Arctic methane emissions to the global <span>CH</span><sub><span>4</span></sub>-budget is still relatively immature. Besides the difficulties in carrying out measurements in such remote areas, this is due to a high inhomogeneity in the spatial distribution of methane sources and sinks as well as to ongoing changes in hydrology, vegetation and carbon decomposition.</p><p>Therefore, the aim of this work is to reduce the uncertainties about methane sources and sinks in the Arctic region during the most recent years by using an atmospheric approach, in order to improve the quality of the assessment of the local and global impacts.</p><p>To do so, the data of atmospheric <span>CH</span><sub><span>4</span></sub> concentrations measured at about 30 stations located in different Arctic nations have been <span>analysed</span> in regard to the trends, seasonal fluctuations and spatial patterns that they demonstrate as well as their link to regional emissions.</p>

Impact of emissions and long-range transport on Air Quality in Delhi

<p>Delhi is the world’s most polluted capital city, with annual mean concentrations of PM<sub>2.5</sub>, O<sub>3</sub> and NO<sub>2 </sub>well above the safe legal limits for Europe. Exposure to these pollutants over short and long-time scales is associated with increases in diseases such as heart disease, stroke and lower respiratory tract infections. Local NO<sub>2 </sub>concentrations vary by month and season and are controlled by both emissions and meteorology. Locally, vehicle pollution contributes to 67% of the total air pollution load and 48% of NO<sub>x</sub>. The vehicle population has increased substantially in recent years due to an increase in the number of vehicles travelling into Delhi each day from surrounding areas. High pollution episodes, especially in winter, also contribute to the high annual mean observed. This may be due to the trapping of pollutants in a shallow, stable boundary layer or through the long-range transport of pollutants from surrounding regions to Delhi under favourable wind directions. However, the relative contribution of local vs regional emissions has not been quantified previously. This inhibits the introduction of targeted policies to reduce concentrations in the city.</p><p>We use observational datasets to quantify the relative contribution of local and regional emissions to local NO<sub>2 </sub>air quality in Delhi rather than running a computationally expensive atmospheric chemistry transport model (Stirling et al., 2020). We combine satellite data from the TROPOMI instrument on the Sentinel 5 – Precursor (S5P) platform with back-trajectories, from the Reading Offline Trajectory Model (ROTRAJ). This allows us to investigate how different wind directions affect the relative contributions of local and regional NO<sub>2</sub> pollution to Delhi NO<sub>2</sub>. We will then quantify the contribution of different regions and sectors to NO<sub>2 </sub>in Delhi by combining the back-trajectories with a high resolution emission inventory for India and Delhi. This method also allows us to consider future emission control scenarios and quantify their impacts on air quality in Delhi.</p><p> </p>

Measuring on-Road Vehicle Hot Running NOx Emissions with a Combined Remote Sensing–Dynamometer Study

This study explores the correlation in measured hot running NO/CO2 ratios by a remote sensing device (RSD) and dynamometer testing. Two large diesel cars (E4/E5) are tested on the dynamometer in hot running conditions using a new drive cycle developed for this study and then driven multiple times past the RSD. A number of verification and correction steps are conducted for both the dynamometer and RSD data. A new time resolution adjustment of RSD acceleration values proves important. Comparison of RSD and dynamometer data consistently shows a strong weighted correlation varying from +0.89 to +0.95, despite the high level of variability observed in the RSD measurements. This provides further evidence that relative changes in mean NO/CO2 ratios as measured with the RSD should provide robust emissions data for trend analysis studies and as inputs for regional emissions models. However, a positive bias of approximately 25 ppm NO/% CO2 is observed for the RSD, and bias correction of RSD measurements should be considered pending further testing.