Welsh Politics after the EU Referendum

This paper examines the electoral and ideological contest that has taken place between Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru in the five National Assembly elections that have been held between 1999 and 2016. Both parties have found success when they have managed to combine effective leadership with a coherent programme and a strong sense of Welsh identity. However, the Welsh vote to leave the EU in the June 2016 referendum has dealt both parties a poor hand in speaking up for Welsh interests. Can they find a common cause in working together and also with Scotland to take Wales forward in a progressive constitutional direction?

Wales, Devolution and the Scottish Independence Debate

The chapter begins by noting a recent historical tendency for Wales to take an interest in Scottish political developments, alongside deficiencies in the Welsh media landscape and a lack of Welsh media engagement with Welsh politics. It is observed that yet fewer Welsh media consumers have the opportunity to engage with indigenous media than counterparts in Scotland. Awareness of the potential implications of Scottish constitutional developments for Wales produced substantial coverage of the Scottish referendum. The tightening of the polls just ahead of the referendum caused a spike in Welsh coverage, in which however the Welsh media faced challenges in adopting a view differentiated from London coverage. The chapter concludes with observations about absences in the Welsh media ecology.

The First Welsh National Assembly Election

THE WELSH LABOUR PARTY COULD HAVE ANTICIPATED THE FIRST elections to the National Assembly with a fair degree of equanimity, if not optimism. In the 1997 General Election, the party had won 55 percent of the vote and delivered on its promise of a devolution referendum which it won, albeit by a narrow majority. The architect of Labour's devolution policy, Ron Davies, the Welsh Secretary of State, who was widely respected within and beyond the Labour Party, had spoken of a new Welsh politics, with policy-making open to and inclusive of other Welsh parties. All this, however, was called into question by what Ron Davies subsequently described as his ‘moment of madness’ on Clapham Common in October 1998. Although the circumstances remain unclear, they resulted in his resignation from the post of Secretary of State and leader of the Welsh Labour Party. Alun Michael, a Cardiff MP and a minister at the Home Office, was appointed Welsh Secretary and subsequently endured a bitter and bruising leadership contest with Rhodri Morgan, during which claims were made that he was Blair's man, and not really an enthusiastic devolutionist but part of the Millbank control system. Large sections of the party were disillusioned by the process and serious questions were raised as to what extent disillusioned party activists would be involved in the Assembly election campaign.