The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income

This paper examines the long-run effects of the 1980–1982 recession on education and income. Using confidential census data, I estimate difference-in-difference regressions that exploit variation across counties in recession severity and across cohorts in age at the time of the recession. For individuals age 0–10 in 1979, a 10 percent decrease in earnings per capita in their county of birth reduces four-year college degree attainment by 15 percent and earnings in adulthood by 5 percent. Simple calculations suggest that in aggregate, the 1980–1982 recession led to 1.3–2.8 million fewer college graduates and $66–$139 billion less earned income per year. (JEL E32, I21, I26, J24, J31)

Covid-19 Pandemic: Financial Impact and Intention to Stay in Current Business of Sabah Tamu Operators

In Sabah, Malaysia, a traditional market known as Tamu (means meeting) acts as a hub for local business activity, especially indigenous people. This paper presents an exploratory study whose goal is to investigate the Covid-19 pandemic financial impact and intention to stay in the current business of Tamu operators. Using purposive and snowballing sampling, survey data were collected from 125 Tamu business operators in Sabah. Among the respondents, 61.6 percent indicated Tamu business as their primary income and main entrepreneurial platform. The Covid-19 pandemic Movement Control Order (MCO) enforcement resulted in the Tamu entrepreneurs experiencing 34.2 percent decrease in weekly sales revenue and a 25.7 percent reduction in weekly gross profit. Furthermore, the overall mean score for the Tamu operators' intention to remain in the Tamu business is high at 4.37 based on 5-point likert scale. Thus, the Sabah Tamu operators are more likely to sustain their Tamu business despite the adverse financial impact of the Covid-19 MCO enforcement. This study outcome may guide the relevant government agencies to mitigate the financial impact by formulating and implementing appropriate policies and support programs specifically targeted for the Tamu business operators, who are mostly informal entrepreneurs.

Vaccination is reasonably effective in limiting the spread of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths with COVID-19

This paper uses large cross-country data for 110 countries to examine the effectiveness of COVID vaccination coverage. Our results confirm that vaccines are reasonably effective in both limiting the spread of infections and containing more severe disease progression in symptomatic patients. First, the results show that full vaccination rate is consistently negatively correlated with the number of new COVID cases, whereby a 10 percent increase in vaccination rate is associated with a 1.3 to 1.7 percent decrease in new COVID cases. Second, the magnitude of vaccination is shown to contribute significantly to moderating severe disease progression. On average, a 10 percent increase in the rate of vaccination leads to a reduction of about 5 percent in the number of new hospitalizations, 12 percent decrease in the number of new intensive care patients and 2 percent reduction in the number of new deaths. Finally, by comparing the data for the same period between 2020 and 2021, we also check how good is vaccination as a substitute for lockdowns or other stringent government protection measures. Results suggest that vaccination does not appear to be an effective substitute for more stringent government safety measures to contain the spread of COVID infections until a high vaccination coverage threshold (more than 70 percent) has been achieved. On the other hand, vaccination is shown to be quite effective in limiting the more severe course of the disease in symptomatic patients already at moderate vaccination coverage (between 40 and 70 percent). This suggests that vaccination can also help to reduce pressure on the health system and thus benefit the overall public health of society.

Vaccination is reasonably effective in limiting the spread of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths with COVID-19

This paper uses large cross-country data for 110 countries to examine the effectiveness of COVID vaccination coverage. Our results confirm that vaccines are reasonably effective in both limiting the spread of infections and containing more severe disease progression in symptomatic patients. First, the results show that full vaccination rate is consistently negatively correlated with the number of new COVID cases, whereby a 10 percent increase in vaccination rate is associated with a 1.3 to 1.7 percent decrease in new COVID cases. Second, the magnitude of vaccination is shown to contribute significantly to moderating severe disease progression. On average, a 10 percent increase in the rate of vaccination leads to a reduction of about 5 percent in the number of new hospitalizations, 12 percent decrease in the number of new intensive care patients and 2 percent reduction in the number of new deaths. Finally, by comparing the data for the same period between 2020 and 2021, we also check how good is vaccination as a substitute for lockdowns or other stringent government protection measures. Results suggest that vaccination does not appear to be an effective substitute for more stringent government safety measures to contain the spread of COVID infections until a high vaccination coverage threshold (more than 70 percent) has been achieved. On the other hand, vaccination is shown to be quite effective in limiting the more severe course of the disease in symptomatic patients already at moderate vaccination coverage (between 40 and 70 percent). This suggests that vaccination can also help to reduce pressure on the health system and thus benefit the overall public health of society.

Design and Implementation of a novel Weekend Elective Paediatric Surgery Program to Reduce COVID-19 Related Backlog: Operating Room Ramp-Up After COVID-19 Lockdown Ends – Extra Lists (ORRACLE-Xtra) (Preprint)

BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-COV-2 virus has resulted in unprecedented challenges for the healthcare system. Ramp down of surgical services led to significant backlogs for time-sensitive scheduled pediatric patients. We designed and implemented a novel pilot weekend surgical quality improvement project called Operating Room Ramp-Up After COVID Lockdown Ends – Extra Lists (ORRACLE-Xtra). OBJECTIVE Our overall goals were to increase patient access to surgery (and reduce the waitlist), improve operating room efficiencies, and optimize parent and staff experience. METHODS Using the DMAIC framework (define, measure, analyze, improve, control), we implemented ORRACLE-Xtra in a tertiary care academic pediatric hospital during a quiescence of the COVID-19 pandemic and defined process and outcome measures based on provincial targets of out of window cases. Parental and staff satisfaction was tracked by surveys. Results: ORRACLE-Xtra led to 247 patients receiving surgery during the pilot period resulting in a 5 percent decrease in the total number of patients on our waitlist with P-CATS IV 59.5%, with 38.1% out-of-window of provincial targets. Most of the process and outcome measures were met or exceeded. Overall parental satisfaction was at 95.8% with staff reporting 79.1% satisfaction of working on the weekends. RESULTS ORRACLE-Xtra led to 247 patients receiving surgery during the pilot period resulting in a 5 percent decrease in the total number of patients on our waitlist with P-CATS IV 59.5%, with 38.1% out-of-window of provincial targets. Most of the process and outcome measures were met or exceeded. Overall parental satisfaction was at 95.8% with staff reporting 79.1% satisfaction of working on the weekends. CONCLUSIONS Through the ORRACLE-Xtra pilot program, we have shown that hospitals impacted by COVID-19 can reduce the surgical backlog using innovative models of service delivery in a Canadian context. Sustained funding is critical to achieving more meaningful reductions in wait times for scheduled surgeries over the longer term and needs to be balanced with staff well-being. CLINICALTRIAL N/A

Uji Aktivitas Antikolesterol Ekstrak Daun Puring (Codiaeum variegatum (L.) Rumph. Ex. A.Juss) Secara In Vitro

Cholesterol is an essential building material for the body to synthesize important substances such as cell membranes and insulation materials around nerve fiber as well as genital hormones and kidney of vitamin D and bile acids. Puring plants iclusive varieties of flowering plants who most of society interest because have varied colour leaf and have compound secondary metabolic substances of flavonoid, phenolic, triterpenoid, steroid and alkaloids. The purpose of this study was to determine the anticholesterol activity of puring leaves in vitro. The method used in vitro with Lieberman-Burchad reagent using a UV-Vis spectrophotometer measuring device at a wavelength of 665.0 nm. The concentration series used are 100; 200; 300; 400 and 500 ppm. The results showed that at a concentration of 500 ppm it can decrease cholesterol levels by 52.20% and The EC50 value obtained was 449.87 g/mL. The increase in each extract concentration showed an increase in the percent decrease in cholesterol levels.Keywords: cholesterol; puring leaf; lieberman-burchard AbstrakKolesterol merupakan bahan bangun esensial bagi tubuh untuk sintesis zat-zat penting, seperti membran sel dan bahan isolasi sekitar serat saraf, begitu pula hormon kelamin dan anak ginjal, vitamin D, serta asam empedu. Tanaman puring termasuk jenis tanaman hias yang banyak diminati masyarakat karena memiliki warna daun yang beragam dan memiliki kandungan senyawa metabolit sekunder berupa flavonoid, fenolik, triterpenoid, steroid dan alkaloid. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mengetahui aktivitas antikolesterol pada daun puring secara in vitro. Metode yang digunakan secara in vitro dengan pereaksi Lieberman-Burchad menggunakan alat pengukur spektrofotometer UV-Vis pada panjang gelombang 665,0 nm. Seri konsentrasi yang digunakan yaitu 100; 200; 300; 400 dan 500 ppm. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan pada konsentrasi 500 ppm dapat menurun kadar kolesterol sebesar 52,20% dan nilai EC50 yang didapatkan sebesar 449,87 µg/mL. Peningkatan setiap konsentrasi ekstrak menunjukan peningkatan persen penurunan kadar kolesterol.Kata kunci: daun puring; kolesterol; Lieberman-burchard

Effects of hormone replacement therapy on endothelial function, arterial stiffness and myocardial deformation in women with Turner syndrome

Background/Introduction Turner syndrome (TS) is associated with increased cardiovascular risk. Purpose We investigated whether hormone replacement therapy (HRT) affects endothelial function, arterial stiffness and myocardial deformation in women with TS. Methods Twenty-five women with TS were studied in the estrogen phase of the HRT and two months after discontinuation of HRT. The following measurements were made: flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) of the brachial artery, pulse wave velocity (PWV-Complior) and central systolic blood pressure (cSBP), carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), aortic (Ao) elastic indexes-namely Ao strain, distensibility, stiffness index and pressure strain modulus (Ep)-and left ventricular (LV) global longitudinal strain (GLS) using speckle tracking echocardiography. Ten healthy female of similar age and BMI served as control group. Results Compared to controls, women with TS on HRT had higher PWV (9.1±2.4 vs. 7.5±0.5m/s), cSBP (130±15 vs. 121±6mmHg), cIMT (0.66±0.06 vs. 0.55±0.05mm), aortic stiffness index, Ep and LA strain, and lower FMD (7.2±4 vs. 10.5±2.3%), Ao strain, Ao distensibility and GLS (−18.8±2.7 vs. −21.9±1.5%) (P<0.05 for all comparisons). Two months after discontinuation of HRT, all women increased FMD (11.7±6 vs. 7.2±4%) and reduced PWV (7.8±1.7 vs. 9.1±2.4m/s) and cSBP (123±14 vs. 130±15mmHg). There were no statistically significant changes in BMI, cIMT and GLS (P>0.05 for all comparisons). The percent decrease of cSBP was associated with the percent decrease of PWV (r=0.54) and reversely related with the percent increase of FMD (r=−0.57) (P<0.05 for all comparisons). Conclusion HRT in women with TS may deteriorate endothelial function contributing to increased arterial stiffness and central arterial blood pressure. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

Evaluating the Effect of Covid-19 on the Palestinian Economy by Estimating the Relationship Between Economic Growth and Unemployment in Palestine

The Palestinian economy is a small and open economy that is characterized with a high level of uncertainty. The purpose of this paper is to determine the effect of COVID-19 on the economic growth in Palestine through estimating the relationship between economic growth and unemployment. We will use the GDP per capita to measure economic growth and unemployment rate in Palestine. Thus we will also look at the Palestinian labor force and determine whether the job creation is successful in absorbing the rising rates of unemployment and determine how COVID-19 will affect unemployment rates. This is an effort to study where the Palestinian economy is heading and gives suggestions of how we can avoid the convergence into a Volatility Uncertainty Complexity Ambiguity environment. The data was taken from the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics for the period from 1995 to 2018. The time series analysis indicated that a 1 percent increase in the unemployment rate will result in a 0.356 percent decrease in the GDP per capita. Given the continuation of the Israeli occupation, the Palestinian government plays the role of “crisis management”.

AN ANALYSIS OF LABOUR REQUIREMENTS AND THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON MALAYSIA’S TOURISM INDUSTRY

The tourism sector is expected to continue experiencing a significant increase in tourist arrivals. Meanwhile, the labour requirement especially in the tourism sub-sector has been anticipated to increase. However, the Covid-19 outbreak has interrupted the number of tourist arrivals to Malaysia. Tourism sector’s receipt and the labour requirement will also be affected. The objective of this study is to forecast the labour requirements in the tourism sector in Malaysia. This study provides an initial overview of the labour requirements including during the Covid-19 outbreak which occurred in 2020. The method used in this study was the Input-Output method. The labour requirements were projected for three years, i.e. 2017, 2019 and 2020. Projections were also made based on a 25 percent decrease in Chinese tourist spending in Malaysia. The results showed that the labour requirements in 2017, 2019 and 2020 increased by 2.6 million people, 2.8 million people and 3.0 million people, respectively. However, when there was a decline in Chinese tourist spending, the labour requirement was 2.6 million people indicating a drop by -11.40 percent. The entertainment and recreation services were the most affected sectors when the Covid-19 outbreak occurred, at a rateof-66.31 percent. Discussions elaborated on the importance of labour requirements estimation in the tourism industry in response to the Covid-19 outbreak. Implications of the study are also highlighted.

Impact of COVID-19 Social Distancing Policies on Traffic Congestion, Mobility, and NO2 Pollution

Lockdowns implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic were utilized to evaluate the associations between “social distancing policies” (SDPs), traffic congestion, mobility, and NO2 air pollution. Spatiotemporal linear mixed models were used on city-day data from 22 US cities to estimate the associations between SDPs, traffic congestion and mobility. Autoregressive integrated moving average models with Fourier terms were then used on historical data to forecast expected 2020 NO2. Time series models were subsequently employed to measure how much reductions in local traffic congestion were associated with lower-than-forecasted 2020 NO2. Finally, the equity of NO2 pollution was assessed with community-level sociodemographics. When cities’ most stringent SDPs were implemented, they observed a 23.47 (95% CI: 18.82–28.12) percent reduction in average daily congestion and a 13.48 (95% CI: 10.36–16.59) percent decrease in average daily mobility compared to unrestricted days. For each standard deviation (8.38%) reduction in local daily congestion, average daily NO2 decreased by 1.37 (95% CI: 1.24–1.51) parts per billion relative to its forecasted value. Citizenship, education, and race were associated with elevated absolute NO2 pollution levels but were not detectibly associated with reductions in 2020 NO2 relative to its forecasted value. This illustrates the immediate behavioral and environmental impacts of local SDPs during the COVID-19 pandemic.