Refining Mean-field Approximations by Dynamic State Truncation

Mean-field models are an established method to analyze large stochastic systems with N interacting objects by means of simple deterministic equations that are asymptotically correct when N tends to infinity. For finite N, mean-field equations provide an approximation whose accuracy is model- and parameter-dependent. Recent research has focused on refining the approximation by computing suitable quantities associated with expansions of order $1/N$ and $1/N^2$ to the mean-field equation. In this paper we present a new method for refining mean-field approximations. It couples the master equation governing the evolution of the probability distribution of a truncation of the original state space with a mean-field approximation of a time-inhomogeneous population process that dynamically shifts the truncation across the whole state space. We provide a result of asymptotic correctness in the limit when the truncation covers the state space; for finite truncations, the equations give a correction of the mean-field approximation. We apply our method to examples from the literature to show that, even with modest truncations, it is effective in models that cannot be refined using existing techniques due to non-differentiable drifts, and that it can outperform the state of the art in challenging models that cause instability due orbit cycles in their mean-field equations.

Social optima in leader-follower mean field linear quadratic control

This paper investigates a linear quadratic mean field leader-follower team problem, where the model involves one leader and a large number of weakly-coupled interactive followers. The leader and the followers cooperate to optimize the social cost. Specifically, for any strategy provided first by the leader, the followers would like to choose a strategy to minimize social cost functional. Using variational analysis and person-by-person optimality, we construct two auxiliary control problems. By solving sequentially the auxiliary control problems with consistent mean field approximations, we can obtain a set of decentralized social optimality strategy with help of a class of forward-backward consistency systems. The relevant asymptotically social optimality is further proved under some proper conditions.

Integer Versus Fractional Order SEIR Deterministic and Stochastic Models of Measles

In this paper, we compare the performance between systems of ordinary and (Caputo) fractional differential equations depicting the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) models of diseases. In order to understand the origins of both approaches as mean-field approximations of integer and fractional stochastic processes, we introduce the fractional differential equations (FDEs) as approximations of some type of fractional nonlinear birth and death processes. Then, we examine validity of the two approaches against empirical courses of epidemics; we fit both of them to case counts of three measles epidemics that occurred during the pre-vaccination era in three different locations. While ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are commonly used to model epidemics, FDEs are more flexible in fitting empirical data and theoretically offer improved model predictions. The question arises whether, in practice, the benefits of using FDEs over ODEs outweigh the added computational complexities. While important differences in transient dynamics were observed, the FDE only outperformed the ODE in one of out three data sets. In general, FDE modeling approaches may be worth it in situations with large refined data sets and good numerical algorithms.