Intervensi Turki dalam Krisis Suriah (2011-2014)

This research aims to explain Turkey’s intervention in Syrian crisis due to the perception of threat toward its security or domestic stability. Syrian crisis has directed threat indirectly to Turkey related to the existence of Kurd rebel group Kurdistan Workers Party or PKK’s activity in Syria. Syria makes the PKK affiliated to Syrian Kurd group Democratic Union Party or PYD an important actor particularly in northern area of the state during the crisis. Amid the instability caused by armed conflict in Syria, Turkey believes both political and military force of the PKK-PYD’s can injure its security or domestic stability now that the PKK still demands either territorial secession or autonomy for Kurd’s southeastern area. The research applies the worldview of international relations realism to describe Turkey’s behavior as a state with its power in responding to its surrounding. To strengthen the approach used, the research applies intervention theory which can explain the relation of Turkey’s intervention to the threat toward its security or domestic stability which it perceives as a vital national interest. Indeed, the result of the research shows a finding that such perception of threat encourages Turkey to commit intervention in Syrian crisis. Turkey’s intervention aims to remove the leadership of Syrian current regime with that of Syrian opposition group in which it trusts to be capable of creating stability, controlling, and restricting the political and military movement of Kurd groups in Syria.

Foreign Policy in Times of Crisis: Venezuela's Blockade Policy towards Brazilian Aids

Venezuela, an economically oil-dependent country in South America, has experienced a turmoil of economic crisis since 2014 under the administration of President Nicolás Maduro. This crisis has been spilling towards social and political issues, with one being the emergence of an opposition group led by Juan Guaidó. This crisis, at first, has invited sympathy from various international actors, both states and non-states, with one being Brazil under the leadership of President Bolsonaro. Brazil at first is actively sending logistical aids towards the Venezuelans. However, in February 2019, President Maduro decided to fully-blockade Venezuela-Brazil borders for any human or goods movement. Beside the individual factor of the state's leader, group factor, specifically its cabinet which still acquires legitimacy from the leader, is also often seen as affecting and advising a policy in the time of a crisis. This paper aims to analyze the presence of President Maduro’s cabinet towards the Brazil border blockade in Venezuelan Crisis in 2019. By using the groupthink paradigm, this paper argues that there is a position of convergence between the members of the cabinet with the background of: (1) the dominance of nationalist military groups loyal to President Maduro; (2) the same ideology of left-wing political spectrum. It also argues that beside the two internal factors above, the external factors of regional and global tension towards Venezuela also create an isolation as an element of stress towards this government. This paper concludes that the combination of the three factors above become the main factors that formulated the blockade policy. Keywords: economic crisis, foreign policy, groupthink, Venezuela

Leader Tenure, Genocide, and Politicide During Civil War

Why do some governments engage in genocide or politicide during civil war while others do not? I argue that leader tenure influences bargaining possibilities between the regime and rebels. Rebels face less uncertainty about a longer-tenured leader’s willingness to commit to concessions to end the conflict with terms that better the rebels’ position. This narrows the longer-tenured leader’s ability to credibly offer the rebels concessions. Facing a constrained bargaining environment, longer-tenured leaders become more likely to turn to atrocity in an effort to fully defeat the opposition group and its supporters. Statistical analysis of all genocide and politicide in civil war since 1946 supports this claim. Evidence from Milosevic’s atrocities in Kosovo help illustrate the mechanisms.

Crisis Foreign Policy Making in Venezuela: The Case of Nicolás Maduro’s Left-Wing Militaristic Cabinet in Venezuela’s Blockade Policy towards Brazilian Aids

Venezuela has experienced a turmoil of economic crisis since 2014 under the administration of President Nicolás Maduro. This crisis has been spilling towards social and political issues, with one being the emergence of opposition group led by Juan Guaidó. This crisis, at first, has invited sympathy from various international actors, both states and non-states, one of them being Brazil. However, in February 2019, President Maduro decided to fully-blockade Venezuela-Brazil borders for any human or goods movement. This paper aims to analyze the presence of President Maduro’s cabinet towards Brazil borders blockade in Venezuelan Crisis in 2019. This paper utilizes qualitative social science methodology by analyzing primary and secondary data. By using the groupthink paradigm in foreign policy analysis, this paper argues that there is a position convergence between the members of the cabinet with the background of: (1) the dominance of nationalist military group loyal to President Maduro; (2) the same ideology of left-wing political spectrum. This paper also argues that beside the two internal factors above, the external factors of regional and global tension towards Venezuela also create an isolation as an element of stress towards this government. This paper concludes that the combination of the three factors above become the main factors that formulated the blockade policy.

Political Dynasty in Eye of the Community (Sociological Study of Political Awareness in Bima Regency Election 2020)

The practice of dynastic politics in Bima Regency is a long drama of concentration of power during the last 20 years, where the last four periods of leadership were controlled by the royal family. The study of political dynasties is not related to a blue-blooded leader or not, but rather about the control of power in a particular family, but it happens that the families who practice dynastic politics in Bima are people from the royal family/sultanate who have indeed reigned in the sultanate. Bima, or to be more precise, the political actors of the dynasty in Bima were the sultan and his wife and children. This research uses qualitative methods with a qualitative descriptive approach. Sources of data in this study are the people of Bolo District who will become voters in the 2020 Pemilukada of Bima Regency. Sampling was based on purposive sampling technique. Data collection techniques are interviews, observation and documentation. The analysis technique used is an interactive analysis model, while the validity of the data uses the source triangulation technique. Dynastic politics in Bima Regency was done by using the image of the sultanate as cultural legitimacy. The Bima community, who were still at the Magis consciousness level, smoothed their steps in getting votes in the contestation for the regent election, even people at this level of awareness became very easy to exploit. The next advantage of the practice of dynastic politics in Bima is that most of the opposition elites are still trapped in a naïve level of awareness where the opposition group does not consider how to take strategic steps to overthrow the great power of the political dynasty. The opposition must accept defeat because it is unable to gather resources to overthrow its political opponents. This can be seen from how the opposition factions were divided into factions which made them weak.

Pakistan opposition group will lose momentum quickly

Headline PAKISTAN: Opposition group will lose momentum quickly

Social Movements, Parties, and Political Cleavages in Morocco: A Religious Divide?

The primary political cleavage in predominantly Muslim countries often appears to reflect an Islamist-secular divide. This chapter considers cleavages in electoral authoritarian regimes. It argues that, in this setting, the Islamist-secular cleavage is neither as divisive nor as important as it seems to be. It makes three broad claims. First, it argues that ideology—whether secular or religious—matters less than the stance an opposition group takes toward the ruling regime. The primary political question is not whether religion should guide politics, but whether to adopt a more cooperative or confrontational approach to the regime. Second, this analysis stresses the need to consider both formal political parties and social movement organizations (SMOs) when analyzing cleavages under electoral authoritarianism. The most critical actors are typically opposition SMOs, not political parties who participate in authoritarian electoral institutions. Including both allows us to see the limited importance of ideology in authoritarian politics. Third, this chapter suggests that opposition groups do not need to choose between religious and secular frames, but can incorporate elements of both. In a predominantly Muslim society, secular organizations may justify and propose policies on religious grounds, and Islamist groups can support secular aims. Religious and secular frames are not mutually exclusive alternatives. This chapter draws on the history of politics in Morocco to illustrate these claims.

Pakistan opposition group may play into Khan’s hands

Headline PAKISTAN: Opposition group may play into Khan’s hands

The Influence of Domestic Politics of South Korea on its Relations with North Korea and the United States

This paper aims to conduct research on the influence of domestic South Korean politics on relations with the United States and North Korea. In this case, the theory of dominance of domestic political actors explains where the dominance of a group will have an influence on determining the foreign policy of a country. South Korea’s domestic politics is dominated by two groups with different ideologies in the face of the United States and North Korea. This then resulted in different actions in the face of North Korea and the United States. The differences will be explained by assessing some of the policies applied to Kim Dae Jung’s regime and Roh Moo-Hyun from a progressive group. The policy will then be compared to the policies of the regime of Lee Myung Bak from conservative groups. Differences in the group’s dominant views in South Korea have led to certain strategies for each group in the face of the opposition group. The strategy is carried out to maintain the effectiveness of the policies applied according to the ideology of each group. This research used literature study as the method by taking data from journals and reports which that discuss the national politics of South Korea. The theoretical framework of V.M Hudson, which focuses on the national circumstances, and the role of domestic actors have been applied in this research.

International support networks and the calculus of uprising

How does the anticipation of external support for both opposition groups and governments affect the likelihood and form (violent vs. nonviolent) of uprising within states? We develop a novel approach to address these issues, building on a network perspective. Our model suggests that both opposition groups and governments’ strategies are affected by an anticipation of the degree and nature of expected support by external parties (states and non-state actors). Using a set of indicators – including cultural affinity, strategic factors, and normative values – we develop a unique measure of anticipated support based on the potential support networks of target states and their opposition in order to evaluate our hypotheses. We argue that the anticipated balance of support for opposition and governments affects: (a) the likelihood of uprising and (b) the principal – violent or nonviolent – strategy used by the opposition group. We analyze data on violent and nonviolent civil conflicts over the period 1946–2010. We find that when the balance of anticipated support favors the opposition over their target government, the onset of an uprising is more likely. Specifically, the type of anticipated support has implications for whether a violent or nonviolent uprising occurs. These findings provide new insights into the role external support can play even before conflict occurs.