The Association of Coal-Fired Power Plants and the Mortality of COVID-19

With the outbreak and spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (COVID-19), the world was ushered into a global pandemic. One of the most alarming aspects of the disease is the high mortality rate. Previous research has shown that long term exposure to air pollution has been correlated with the mortality rate of respiratory diseases. The focus of this study was to determine if there was any association between the mortality of COVID-19 and one of the primary producers of air pollution, coal-fired power plants. Using data from the US Energy Information Administration, John Hopkins University, and census department, a chi-square test and a poisson regression analysis were conducted to determine if living in proximity to coal-fired power plants had any effects on the mortality of COVID-19. The chi-square test results showed that there was no statistical significance as the variables showed independence. These results illustrate that there is no association between coal-fired power plants and the mortality rate of COVID-19. To expand on the results of the chi-square test, a poisson regression analysis was performed to account for the presence of confounding variables. This analysis showed similar results to the chi-square test, but due to issues with outliers in the data causing overdispersion, the model was unable to be accurately conducted, making all results inconclusive. With the inconclusive results of the poisson regression analysis, the conclusions drawn from the chi-square test were not able to be generalized as they were not verified in the presence of confounding variables.

Future Proofing the Development of Unconventional Resources in UAE

The growth of USA shale oil and gas production over the last decade has been nothing short of phenomenal. In 2012 shale gas comprised 39% of US natural gas output, and by 2040, nearly 80% of total gas production is anticipated to come from unconventional resources. In April 2021, in the USA alone, gas production from major unconventional plays reached 83.0 BCFD and oil production was 7.6 MMBD. Driven by rising gas demand and advances in geosciences, drilling and completion technology (hydraulically fractured horizontal wells), unconventional plays have become eminent in the global energy supply, both for value and volume. The development of unconventional resources in North America was aided by governmental positive policies and taxes preferences, the readily available infrastructure, a vast service sector, advanced technologies and expertise, and general understanding of sweet spots due to numerous well penetrations. Following the above accomplishments: exploration, development, and production success in North America, particularly in the USA unconventional basins, several Majors and Independents have been trying to expand the opportunities outside of North America and other countries such as UAE, Oman and Saudi Arabia have been booking significant unconventional resources. For these reasons, the USA and Canada represent the ‘reference benchmark’ by which countries similarly endowed with shale resources can be evaluated. Abu Dhabi recently announced, in 2019 and 2020, discoveries of 160 TCF of unconventional gas, an estimated 22 billion STB of recoverable unconventional oil resources, both located onshore. These finds have pushed the UAE to the sixth position globally in terms of hydrocarbon reserves, from seventh, according to data listed by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Developing these resources are an integral part of ADNOC 2030 strategy of "Monetize our hydrocarbon resources" and becoming gas self-sufficient by 2030. North America achievements in unconventional resources development has triggered other countries to evaluate their unconventional resources. This has come with mixed results: failures in Ukraine, Poland and successes in Argentina. UAE has world class unconventional resource base which development raises the challenges of what practices worth replicating (PWR) need to be adopted by UAE and in turn ADNOC. Some lessons learned, thus practices worth replicating (PWR) can be tailored and adopted from the success of unconventional resources development in North America, will be described in this paper as a benchmark for progressing unconventional resources development in UAE.

Alaska’s North Slope May Yet See Its Renaissance in Arctic Exploration

It wasn’t too long ago that Arctic oil and gas exploration enjoyed celebrity status as the industry’s last frontier, chock full of gigantic unexplored hydrocarbon deposits just waiting to be developed. Fast forward and less than a decade later, the same climate change that made Arctic oil and gas more accessible has caused an about-face as governments and the world’s supranational energy companies rebrand and target control of greenhouse gases (GHG) to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Among countries with Arctic coastlines, Canada has focused its hydrocarbon production on its oil sands which sit well below the Arctic Circle; Greenland has decided to not issue any new offshore exploration licenses (https://jpt.spe.org/greenland-says-no-to-oil-but-yes-to-mining-metals-for-evs), and while Norway is offering licenses in its “High North,” the country can’t find many takers. The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) reported that while 26 companies applied for licenses in 2013, this year’s bid round attracted only seven participants. Norway is Europe’s largest oil producer after Russia with half of its recoverable resources still undeveloped and most of that found in the Barents Sea where the NPD says only one oil field and one gas field are producing. That leaves Russia and the US—geopolitical rivals which are each blessed with large Arctic reserves and the infrastructure to develop those riches—but whose oil and gas industries play different roles in each nation’s economy and domestic political intrigues. Russia sees its Arctic reserves, particularly gas reserves, as vital to its national security, considering that oil and gas accounts for 60% of Russian exports and from 15 to 20% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), according to Russia’s Skolkovo Energy Centre. With navigation now possible year­round along the Northern Sea Route, Russia’s LNG champion and its largest independent gas producer, Novatek, is moving forward with exploration to expand its resource base and build infrastructure to ship product east to Asia and west to Europe. https://jpt.spe.org/russian­lng­aims­high­leveraging­big­reserves­and­logistical­advantages As a result, Russia’s state­owned majors—Rosneft, Gazprom, and Gazprom Neft—are lining up behind their IOC colleague as new investment in Arctic exploration and development is encouraged and rewarded by the Kremlin. In contrast, the American Petroleum Institute reports that the US oil and gas industry contributes 8% to US GDP, a statistic that enables the US to have a more diverse discussion than Russia about the role that oil and gas may play in any future energy mix. That is unless you happen to be from the state of Alaska where US Arctic oil and gas is synonymous with Alaskan oil and gas, and where the US Geological Survey estimates 27% of global unex­plored oil reserves may lie. Though Alaska is responsible for only 4% of US oil and gas production, those revenues covered two-thirds of Alaska’s state budget in 2020 despite the state’s decline in crude production in 28 of the past 32 years since it peaked at 2 million B/D in 1988, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The Optimal Machine Learning Modeling of Brent Crude Oil Price

The price of Brent crude oil is very important to the global economy as it has a huge influence and serves as one of the benchmarks in how other countries and organizations value their crude oil. Few original studies on modeling the Brent crude oil price used predominantly different classical models but the application of machine learning methods in modeling the Brent crude oil price has been grossly understudied. In this study, we identified the optimal MLMD (MLMD) amongst the Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest (RF), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Deep Neural Network (DNN) in modeling the Brent crude oil price and also showed that the optimal MLMD is a better fit to the Brent crude oil price than the classical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model that has been used in original studies. Daily secondary data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration were used in this study. The results showed that the ANN and DNN models behaved alike and both outperformed the SVR and RF models and are chosen as the optimal MLMDs in modeling the Brent crude oil price. The ANN was also better than the classical ARIMA model that performed very poorly. The ANN and DNN models are therefore suggested for a close monitoring of the Brent crude oil price and also for a pre-knowledge of future Brent crude oil price changes.

Standardization and Evaluation of an Anti-ZIKV IgM ELISA Assay for the Serological Diagnosis of Zika Virus Infection

Here, we describe the development of the in-house anti-Zika virus (ZIKV) IgM antibody capture ELISA (in-house ZIKV IgM ELISA) for the detection and diagnosis of acute ZIKV infections. We compared the in-house ZIKV IgM ELISA assay performance against two commercial kits, Euroimmun ZIKV IgM and InBios 2.0 ZIKV IgM ELISA. We tested the assays’ ability to detect anti-ZIKV IgM using a well-defined serum sample panel. This panel included 80 ZIKV negative samples (20 negative, 20 found to be primary dengue virus [DENV][ infections, 20 secondary DENV infections, and 20 Japanese encephalitis virus [JEV] infections) and 67 ZIKV reverse transcriptase–polymerase chain reaction–positive acute serum samples. The OD values were calculated to US Energy Information Administration units by comparing them to weak positive controls. The results demonstrated the high sensitivity (88.06%) and specificity (90.00%) of our in-house ZIKV IgM ELISA and its 89.12% overall percentage agreement. The kappa values were deemed to be within excellent range and comparable to the InBios ZIKV IgM ELISA. Some cross-reactivity was observed among secondary DENV and JEV samples, and to a much lower extent, among primary DENV samples. These data indicate that our in-house ZIKV IgM ELISA is a reliable assay for the detection of anti-ZIKV IgM antibodies in serum.

Comments: Oil Demand Optimism

Forecasts for oil demand are looking up, according to OPEC and the International Energy Agency as of mid-July. Will the optimistic views prove to be on target? We have learned how the market can shift or wildly careen, both historically and in the very recent past. Looking at the forecasts, which reflect a consensus of sorts, is encouraging for producers. OPEC’s monthly report of 15 July projected global oil demand to reach nearly 100 million B/D next year, a level similar to pre-pandemic in 2019. The 2021 oil demand growth remains unchanged at 5.95 million B/D, or approximately 6.6%. Led by demand growth in the US, China, and India, a 3.4% increase is expected in 2022 to 99.86 million B/D and would average more than 100 million B/D in the second half of the year. “Solid expectations exist for global economic growth in 2022,” OPEC said. “These include improved containment of COVID-19, particularly in emerging and developing countries, which are forecast to spur oil demand to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2022.” If the actual recovery tracks with these predictions, OPEC can dial back further its record-level supply cuts made in 2020. The IEA points to the growth expected in global electricity demand as spurring fossil-fuel demand, including oil, coal, and natural gas. After falling by around 1% in 2020, electricity demand growth may approach 5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022. The Asia Pacific region will account for the majority of the increases. China, the world’s largest consumer of electricity, leads the tally, accounting for more than 50% of the 2022 growth. India, the third largest, will account for 9% of the global electricity growth. Renewables are expected to be able to serve around half of the projected growth in global demand in 2021 and 2022. IEA wrote, “Renewable electricity generation continues to grow strongly—but cannot keep up with increasing demand. After expanding by 7% in 2020, electricity generation from renewables is forecast to increase by 8% in 2021 and by more than 6% in 2022.” Fossil fuel-based electricity is set to cover 45% of additional demand in 2021 and 40% in 2022. After declining by 4.6% in 2020, coal-fired electricity generation will increase by nearly 5% in 2021, exceeding pre-pandemic levels. In 2022, it will grow another 3% and could reach an all-time high. Natural gas-generated electricity lags coal because it is less commonly used in the Asia Pacific and competes with renewables in the US and Europe. It is expected to increase globally by 1% in 2021 and by nearly 2% in 2022 after declining by 2% in 2020. The US Energy Information Administration published a global financial review last month of 91 oil and gas companies, most headquartered in the US, in the first quarter 2021. It indicated that companies are implementing their plans announced over the past year to reduce capital expenditures to pay down debt. Capital expenditure in 1Q2021 was reported as $48 billion, 28% lower than in 1Q2020 and the second- lowest amount for any quarter since 2016. Cash from operations in Q1 this year totaled $79 billion, 19% higher than in 1Q2020; about 76% of companies had positive free cash flow. Overall, the companies decreased debt by $16 billion in 1Q2021, and the long-term debt-to-equity ratio decreased to 54%.

CORRELATION OF OIL AND GAS RESOURCES OF THE CASPIAN COUNTRIES

The Caspian Sea is the largest body of water in Eurasia: After the collapse of the USSR, the water area of this region is a zone of interest for many states. [1] The Caspian region rightfully serves as one of the most significant regions for most countries interested in the mineral resources that the Caspian is rich in. The Caspian Sea has a significant hydrocarbon reserves. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), hydrocarbon resources in the Caspian basin have the following values: oil - 48 billion barrels of oil, natural gas - 292 trillion. cubic feet (found and probable reserves), of which 75% and 67%, respectively, are produced or may be produced offshore. The northern part of the Caspian Sea contains most of the oil reserves, while the southern sector of the Caspian Sea is rich in natural gas.[2] It should be emphasized that the list of states that have the rights to use the resources of the Caspian Sea is as follows: Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan. It is impossible to correlate the importance of the oil and gas resources of the Caspian reservoir for each of the above countries, for the following reasons: Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are countries for which the hydrocarbon potential of the Caspian is the most important predictor of the formation and development of the economy, while for Kazakhstan, the use of oil and gas resources of the Caspian Sea plays an important , but not the most decisive role, since oil and gas deposits in this country are not limited to the Caspian region, but its economy is developing in other directions. Iran and Russia, however, are interested in influencing the direction of flows of oil and gas raw materials, including their transit through the territory of the countries. [3] The last years for the Caspian region have become the years of a shift in the development of the oil and gas industry of the Caspian "five", which account for 17.6% of oil reserves and 46.4% of gas reserves in terms of global reserves. It is assumed that on the territory of the Caspian shelf, which belongs to Russia, oil reserves amount to 270 million tons, natural gas reserves - 0.5 trillion cubic meters. m of gas. [4] Of course, it is worth noting that the potential of the Russian sector of the Caspian Sea is significantly lower than the oil and gas potential of Yamal or Western Siberia, but the development of this region is important for the strategic development of the oil and gas sector, in particular offshore drilling.

Surviving a Shut-Off: U.S. Households at Greatest Risk of Utility Disconnections and How They Cope

This is the first known study to estimate household characteristics and coping behaviors associated with utility disconnections in the United States. We capitalize on a measure of disconnections available in the Residential Energy Consumption Survey that is administered by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Using the 2015 panel, we analyzed the prevalence of disconnection notices, disconnection of services, and related coping strategies, including: forgoing basic necessities, maintaining an unhealthy home temperature, and receiving energy assistance. Findings indicate that nearly 15% of U.S. households received a disconnection notice and 3%—more than three million households—experienced a service disconnection in 2015. Our results further demonstrate that more households resorted to forgoing basic necessities than maintaining an unhealthy temperature or receiving energy assistance, though many families used a combination of strategies to prevent or respond to the threat or experience of being disconnected. We discuss implications for future research on material hardships, survival strategies, and the health impacts of poverty.

Pennsylvania

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Pennsylvania ranked second among states in production of natural gas in 2018, contributing nearly seven trillion cubic feet. Although the number of unconventional permit applications received by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (“PADEP”) remains relatively robust, the number of unconventional well applications continues to decline from the peak of 3,182 received in 2014.3 In 2019, PADEP received 1,475 unconventional permit applications, as compared to 1,868 in 2018 and 2,028 in 2017.

West Virginia

West Virginia is one of the most prolific energy-producing states in the country. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, West Virginia ranked seventh among states in production of natural gas in 2018, contributing 1.8 trillion cubic feet. Further, the consistency in permit application appears to support the proposition that West Virginia operators will continue producing significant volumes well in the future. The West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection (“WVDEP”) issued 582 horizontal well permits in 2015, 223 in 2016, 509 in 2017, 433 in 2018, and 467 in 2019.