Bayesian Analysis of State Voter Registration Database Integrity

How do we ensure a statewide voter registration database’s accuracy and integrity, especially when the database depends on aggregating decentralized, sub-state data with different list maintenance practices? We develop a Bayesian multivariate multilevel model to account for correlated patterns of change over time in multiple response variables, and label statewide anomalies using deviations from model predictions. We apply our model to California’s 22 million registered voters, using 25 snapshots from the 2020 presidential election. We estimate countywide change rates for multiple response variables such as changes in voter’s partisan affiliation and jointly model these changes. The model outperforms a simple interquartile range (IQR) detection when tested with synthetic data. This is a proof-of-concept that demonstrates the utility of the Bayesian methodology, as despite the heterogeneity in list maintenance practices, a principled, statistical approach is useful. At the county level, the total numbers of anomalies are positively correlated with the average election cost per registered voter between 2017 and 2019. Given the recent efforts to modernize and secure voter list maintenance procedures in the For the People Act of 2021, we argue that checking whether counties or municipalities are behaving similarly at the state level is also an essential step in ensuring electoral integrity.

Social Protection and Gender Inequality in Using Enabling Technology: An Analysis with the Framework of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

This article explores the relationship between social protection and gender gaps in using enabling technology with the perspective of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as both are SDG Indicators. A cross-country comparative examination of 38 countries shows that gender disparity in mobile phone ownership is significantly and negatively correlated with the overall mobile phone owning rate and the proportion of females owning a mobile phone in a country. The coverage of social insurance programmes in a country has very weak and negative association with gender disparity in mobile phone ownership, and the correlation is statistically insignificant. The cross-country variations in mobile phone ownership are significant if gender is not considered. The results suggest that the social protection systems in these countries may not be gender-sensitive enough. A number of practical implications are provided based on the empirical evidence, and improvements in future studies are also suggested since this article is an initial output of a series of follow-up research in the author’s plan.

Monetary Policy and the Top 10%: A Time-Series Analysis Using ARDL and ECM

For the past decades, income inequality has been on the rise, and so is the frequency of its mentions in recent speeches by central bankers. With the heightened importance of the topic, this research aims to study the impact of monetary policy on income inequality. The study used dynamic models for the analysis, namely; the Error-correction Model (ECM) and the Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to determine the relationship in both the short- and long-run. The data used were the top 10% income share and the short-term interest rate. Our main hypothesis is that changes in the short-term interest rate have a significant impact on the top 10% income share. We draw time-series evidence from a sample of nine economies at different stages of development: United States, United Kingdom, Russia, Germany, France, Greece, China, South Africa and Chile. The findings support the hypothesis with interestingly varying effects across our sample. These results provide important implications that can contribute in bettering policy setting and add to the discussion of the role of central banks in reducing income inequality.

Perspectives on Gender Stereotypes: How Did Gender-Based Perceptions Put Hillary Clinton at an Electoral Disadvantage in the 2016 Election?

Research on gender stereotypes has largely emphasized that women candidates are evaluated differently compared to their male counterparts. In this article, I argue that such differential evaluation put Clinton at an electoral disadvantage in the 2016 election. I develop my expectations based on the differences between feminine stereotypes and masculine stereotypes and how voters’ perceptions of the latter match the longstanding popular expectations for political leaders, in a way that advantages men as candidates and disadvantages women. I also expect that a “gender affinity effect” influenced the election, with Democratic women being more likely to vote for Clinton. In this article, I rely on data from the 2016 American National Election Survey to evaluate the role of gender affinity effect and gender stereotypes in Clinton’s electability. The results show that masculine personality traits had the largest effect and were more fundamental for winning the White House. They also show that there was no significant evidence of a gender affinity effect among Democratic women in terms of voting for Clinton. These results offer new insights into voters’ gender stereotypic perceptions of Clinton and their consequences for the electoral fortunes of women candidates in general.

Trade Intensity, Fiscal Integration and Income Inequality in ECOWAS

This paper analyzes the income inequality effect of economic integration in ECOWAS by decomposing economic integration into two dimensions: trade and fiscal integration approximated respectively by trade intensity and fiscal convergence. For robustness purposes, we use different metrics for each dimension. We also consider the introduction in the region of growth and convergence pact in the analysis of fiscal integration effect on income inequality. The analysis covers the period 1990–2018. For the empirical evidence, the generalized method of moment is used. The results obtained are robust and reveal that improving regional economic integration has a reducing effect on income inequality. Taken individually, trade integration and fiscal integration contribute to reducing income inequality. However, taken together, the reducing effect of economic integration on income inequality is more pronounced. Besides, the results indicate that fiscal integration has more contributed to the reduction of income inequality since the introduction of the first fiscal convergence pact in the region in 2000 than before. For reducing income inequality, our analysis recommends to ECOWAS countries to take steps to remove barriers to regional trade on the one hand, and on the other hand, to converge together on the fiscal front.

Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Fiscal Policy Shocks in China

The central issues concerning fiscal policy makers include macroeconomic stability and growth stimulation. The policy decision process is facilitated by investigation on the effects of fiscal policy, such as a change in government spending or taxes on macroeconomic variables comprising inflation, aggregate output, and interest rates. Build on the Blanchard-Perotti identification approach, this paper empirically analyses the influence of fiscal policy to aggregate economic activities in China, and the estimated results are compared between China and the advanced economies. The findings demonstrate that the impulse responses incurred by tax shocks are generally stimulative, although government spending shocks tend to be neutral, revealing meaningful implications for the fiscal space and policy design.

Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality – An Overview

Rising income inequality is one of the greatest challenges facing advanced economies today. Income inequality is multifaceted and is not the inevitable outcome of irresistible structural forces such as globalisation or technological development. Instead, this review shows that inequality has largely been driven by a multitude of political choices. The embrace of neoliberalism since the 1980s has provided the key catalyst for political and policy changes in the realms of union regulation, executive pay, the welfare state and tax progressivity, which have been the key drivers of inequality. These preventable causes have led to demonstrable harmful outcomes that are not explicable solely by material deprivation. This review also shows that inequality has been linked on the economic front with reduced growth, investment and innovation, and on the social front with reduced health and social mobility, and greater violent crime.

The Political Economy of Sectoral Credit Provisioning in India: An Empirical Analysis

Electoral dynamics is believed to have a direct bearing on the scope of governmental control over the supply of credit to different economic sectors. This paper attempts to examine the impact of opportunistic electoral manipulations, ideological beliefs and political lobbying on the supply of agricultural and industrial credit across the Indian states. The findings indicate that more competitive elections are associated with increases in credit provision. An incumbent party with a more liberal ideology is found to provide greater average credit to agriculture relative to industry. Finally, an increase in the political contributions provided to an incumbent state government is found to entail greater industrial credit and lower agricultural credit, on an average.