COVID-19 data are messy: analytic methods for rigorous impact analyses with imperfect data

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an avalanche of scientific studies, drawing on many different types of data. However, studies addressing the effectiveness of government actions against COVID-19, especially non-pharmaceutical interventions, often exhibit data problems that threaten the validity of their results. This review is thus intended to help epidemiologists and other researchers identify a set of data issues that, in our view, must be addressed in order for their work to be credible. We further intend to help journal editors and peer reviewers when evaluating studies, to apprise policy-makers, journalists, and other research consumers about the strengths and weaknesses of published studies, and to inform the wider debate about the scientific quality of COVID-19 research. Results To this end, we describe common challenges in the collection, reporting, and use of epidemiologic, policy, and other data, including completeness and representativeness of outcomes data; their comparability over time and among jurisdictions; the adequacy of policy variables and data on intermediate outcomes such as mobility and mask use; and a mismatch between level of intervention and outcome variables. We urge researchers to think critically about potential problems with the COVID-19 data sources over the specific time periods and particular locations they have chosen to analyze, and to choose not only appropriate study designs but also to conduct appropriate checks and sensitivity analyses to investigate the impact(s) of potential threats on study findings. Conclusions In an effort to encourage high quality research, we provide recommendations on how to address the issues we identify. Our first recommendation is for researchers to choose an appropriate design (and the data it requires). This review describes considerations and issues in order to identify the strongest analytical designs and demonstrates how interrupted time-series and comparative longitudinal studies can be particularly useful. Furthermore, we recommend that researchers conduct checks or sensitivity analyses of the results to data source and design choices, which we illustrate. Regardless of the approaches taken, researchers should be explicit about the kind of data problems or other biases that the design choice and sensitivity analyses are addressing.

Charting the evidence for climate change impacts on the global spread of malaria and dengue and adaptive responses: a scoping review of reviews

Background Climate change is expected to alter the global footprint of many infectious diseases, particularly vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue. Knowledge of the range and geographical context of expected climate change impacts on disease transmission and spread, combined with knowledge of effective adaptation strategies and responses, can help to identify gaps and best practices to mitigate future health impacts. To investigate the types of evidence for impacts of climate change on two major mosquito-borne diseases of global health importance, malaria and dengue, and to identify the range of relevant policy responses and adaptation strategies that have been devised, we performed a scoping review of published review literature. Three electronic databases (PubMed, Scopus and Epistemonikos) were systematically searched for relevant published reviews. Inclusion criteria were: reviews with a systematic search, from 2007 to 2020, in English or French, that addressed climate change impacts and/or adaptation strategies related to malaria and/or dengue. Data extracted included: characteristics of the article, type of review, disease(s) of focus, geographic focus, and nature of the evidence. The evidence was summarized to identify and compare regional evidence for climate change impacts and adaptation measures. Results A total of 32 reviews met the inclusion criteria. Evidence for the impacts of climate change (including climate variability) on dengue was greatest in the Southeast Asian region, while evidence for the impacts of climate change on malaria was greatest in the African region, particularly in highland areas. Few reviews explicitly addressed the implementation of adaptation strategies to address climate change-driven disease transmission, however suggested strategies included enhanced surveillance, early warning systems, predictive models and enhanced vector control. Conclusions There is strong evidence for the impacts of climate change, including climate variability, on the transmission and future spread of malaria and dengue, two of the most globally important vector-borne diseases. Further efforts are needed to develop multi-sectoral climate change adaptation strategies to enhance the capacity and resilience of health systems and communities, especially in regions with predicted climatic suitability for future emergence and re-emergence of malaria and dengue. This scoping review may serve as a useful precursor to inform future systematic reviews of the primary literature.

Strengthening the WHO in the pandemic era by removing a persistent structural defect in financing

Background The WHO’s success in its vital role is constrained by inadequate financial support from member states and overreliance on earmarked voluntary contributions, which erodes autonomy. The agency’s broad functions, including coordination among 194 members, cannot be performed by any other entity. However, despite experts’ well-articulated concerns that the agency’s legitimacy and authority in global health matters have been undermined, a decades-long freeze on member assessments means that WHO priorities are disproportionately influenced by a few powerful donors. A structural defect To overcome inertia in addressing well-known limitations, it may be helpful to consider the weaknesses in WHO’s financing mechanism as a persistent structural defect. This perspective strengthens the focus on corrections needed to remove the defect. In our view, the main features of the structural defect are the self-imposed constraints that foster the perception—if not the reality—that the agency’s legitimacy is compromised. These constraints include WHO’s inadequate level of financing; lack of direct control over 80% of its funds; and unbalanced participation, such that over 60% of financing originates from only 9 donors. With renewed commitment, however, member countries can remove these constraints. Removing the structural defect To meaningfully strengthen structural integrity of the financing mechanism, restore WHO’s autonomy, and minimize concerns about wealthy-donor supremacy, it will be necessary to define specific requirements and implement restrictions on financial contributions. We make five recommendations, including tripling total financing; ensuring that 70% or more of financial support derives from member assessments; limiting contributions from individual members to a maximum of 4% of total WHO financing; and limiting donations from individual partners to a maximum of 3% of total WHO financing (1% for earmarked donations). Although some might consider these measures impractical, they are justified by the magnitude of the crises the world faces, by member states’ increased economic strength in recent decades, and by the importance of shielding the WHO’s financing structure from perceived neocolonialism. This necessary step calls for an adjustment of priorities: the higher level of assessed contribution—from nearly all members regardless of wealth—required to reach the proposed targets would still represent only a small fraction of most members’ annual military expenditures. Conclusion The COVID-19 pandemic, with its devastating toll on human life and global economic stability, presents an opportunity for reflection and refocusing. Realigning WHO’s financial structure to its founders’ vision, as proposed here, would likely safeguard both the agency’s autonomy and member states’ trust, while alleviating concerns about undue influence from powerful donors. Removing the persistent structural defect in financing would empower WHO to lead and coordinate global response to meet the inevitable challenges of the coming decades.

Review of social networks of professionals in healthcare settings—where are we and what else is needed?

Background Social Network Analysis (SNA) demonstrates great potential in exploring health professional relationships and improving care delivery, but there is no comprehensive overview of its utilization in healthcare settings. This review aims to provide an overview of the current state of knowledge regarding the use of SNA in understanding health professional relationships in different countries. Methods We conducted an umbrella review by searching eight academic databases and grey literature up to April 30, 2021, enhanced by citation searches. We completed study selection, data extraction and quality assessment using predetermined criteria. The information abstracted from the reviews was synthesized quantitatively, qualitatively and narratively. Results Thirteen reviews were included in this review, yielding 330 empirical studies. The degree of overlaps of empirical studies across included reviews was low (4.3 %), indicating a high diversity of included reviews and the necessity of this umbrella review. Evidence from low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), particularly Asian countries, was limited. The earliest review was published in 2010 and the latest in 2019. Six reviews focused on the construction or description of professional networks and seven reviews reported factors or influences of professional networks. We synthesized existing literature on social networks of health care professionals in the light of (i) theoretical frameworks, (ii) study design and data collection, (iii) network nodes, measures and analysis, and (iv) factors of professional networks and related outcomes. From the perspective of methodology, evidence lies mainly in cross-sectional study design and electronic data, especially administrative data showing “patient-sharing” relationships, which has become the dominant data collection method. The results about the impact of health professional networks on health-related consequences were often contradicting and not truly comparable. Conclusions Methodological limitations, inconsistent findings, and lack of evidence from LMIC imply an urgent need for further investigations. The potential for broader utilization of SNA among providers remains largely untapped and the findings of this review may contain important value for building optimal healthcare delivery networks. PROSPERO registration number The protocol was published and registered with PROSPERO, the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42020205996).

Informal employment and poor self-perceived health in Latin America and the Caribbean: a gender-based comparison between countries and welfare states in a pooled analysis of 176,786 workers

Background More than half of the working population in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries is engaged in informal employment. The few previous studies indicate that this employment condition could have negative consequences for workers’ health. The aim of the present study was to estimate the association between self-perceived health and informality in LAC countries according to gender and welfare state type. Methods The cross-sectional study based on different working conditions and health national surveys was carried out in 13 LAC countries between 2012 and 2018. A sample of 176,786 workers was selected from these surveys. The association between health and informality was estimated using Poisson regression. Finally, a random effects meta-analysis was carried out by country. All results were stratified by sex and type of welfare state (statalist or familialist). Results Informal workers reported significantly worse health than formal workers, for both women (1.28 [95% CI 1.14-1.43]) and men (1.30 [1.12-1.50]). This difference was broader and more significant in countries with statalist welfare state regimes, among both women (1.40 [1.22-1.60]) and men (1.51 [1.30-1.74]), than in familialist regime countries (1.19 [1.03-1.38] and 1.24 [1.03-1.49], respectively). Conclusions This study provides strong evidence of the association between informal employment and worker health. Welfare states appear to have a modifying effect on this association. The transition from the informal to the formal labour market in LAC is essential to improving the health of the population.

Global health diplomacy in Mexico: insights from key actors in the field

Background Global health diplomacy (GHD) focuses on the actions taken by diverse stakeholders from different nations –governments, multilateral agents, and civil society– to phenomena that can affect population health and its determinants beyond national borders. Although the literature on conceptual advancements of GHD exists, empirical studies about how health becomes an issue of relevance for foreign policy are scarce. We present an analysis of the entry processes of health into the foreign policy and diplomatic domains in Mexico from the perspective of key informants of three different sectors. Methods A purposive sample of high-rank representatives of three sectors involved in GHD was designed: Two from Health Sector (HS), four from Foreign Affairs Sector (FAS), and three from Non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Nine semi-structured interviews were conducted exploring the topics of: (1) Health concerns entering diplomatic and foreign policy; (2) Processes that allow actors to influence foreign policy and negotiation and; (3) Impact of multilateral negotiations on decision-making at the national level. Results Our analysis suggests that GHD in Mexico is hierarchically driven by the FAS and health concerns only enter foreign policy when they are relevant to national priorities (such as trade or security). HS possesses a lesser degree of influence in GHD, serving as an instance of consultation for the FAS when deciding on health-related issues at global meetings (i.e., World Health Assembly). NGOs resort to lobbying, advocacy, networking, and coalition-working practices with other sectors (academy, think-tanks) to prevent harmful impacts on local health from multilateral decisions and as a mean to compensate its power asymmetry for influencing GHD processes in relation to the government. Conclusions GHD in Mexico occurs in a context of asymmetric power relationships where government actors have the strongest influence. However, NGOs’ experience in raising awareness of health risks needs to be weighted by government decision-makers. This situation calls for capacity building on intersectoral communication and coordination to create formal mechanisms of GHD practices, including the professionalization and training on GHD among government agencies.

Universal coverage of the first antenatal care visit but poor continuity of care across the maternal and newborn health continuum among Nepalese women: analysis of levels and correlates

Background Routine maternity care visits (MCVs) such as antenatal care (ANC), institutional delivery, and postnatal care (PNC) visits are crucial to utilisation of maternal and newborn health (MNH) interventions during pregnancy-postnatal period. In Nepal, however, not all women complete these routine MCVs. Therefore, this study examined the levels and correlates of (dis)continuity of MCVs across the antenatal-postnatal period. Methods We conducted further analysis of the 2016 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey. A total of 1,978 women aged 15–49 years, who had live birth two years preceding the survey, were included in the analysis. The outcome variable was (dis)continuity of routine MCVs (at least four ANC visits, institutional delivery, and PNC visit) across the pathway of antennal through to postnatal period. Independent variables included several social determinants of health under structural, intermediary, and health system domains. Multinomial logistic regression was conducted to identify the correlates of routine MCVs. Relative risk ratios (RR) were reported with 95% confidence intervals at a significance level of p<0.05. Results Approximately 41% of women completed all routine MCVs with a high proportion of discontinuation around childbirth. Women of disadvantaged ethnicities, from low wealth status, who were illiterate had higher RR of discontinuation of MCVs (compared to completion of all MCVs). Similarly, women who speak Bhojpuri, from remote provinces (Karnali and Sudurpaschim), who had a high birth order (≥4), who were involved in the agricultural sector, and who had unwanted last birth had a higher RR of discontinuation of MCVs. Women discontinued routine MCVs if they had poor awareness of health mother-groups and perceived the problem of not having female providers. Conclusions Routine monitoring using composite coverage indicators is required to track the levels of (dis)continuity of routine MCVs at the maternity care continuum. Strategies such as raising awareness on the importance of maternity care, care provision from female health workers could potentially improve the completion of MCVs. In addition, policy and programmes for continuity of maternity care are needed to focus on women with socioeconomic and ethnic disadvantages and from remote provinces.

Maximising the wealth of few at the expense of the health of many: a public health analysis of market power and corporate wealth and income distribution in the global soft drink market

Background Many of the harms created by the global soft drink industry that directly influence human and planetary health are well documented. However, some of the ways in which the industry indirectly affects population health, via various socio-economic pathways, have received less attention. This paper aimed to analyse the extent to which market power and corporate wealth and income distribution in the global soft drink market negatively impact public health and health equity. In doing so, the paper sought to contribute to the development of a broad-based public health approach to market analysis. A range of dimensions (e.g., market concentration; financial performance; corporate wealth and income distribution) and indicators (e.g., Herfindahl Hirschman Index; earnings relative to the industry average; effective tax rates; and shareholder value ratios) were descriptively analysed. Empirical focus was placed on the two dominant global soft drink manufacturers. Results Coca-Cola Co, and, to a lesser extent, PepsiCo, operate across an extensive patchwork of highly concentrated markets. Both corporations control vast amounts of wealth and resources, and are able to allocate relatively large amounts of money to potentially harmful practices, such as extensive marketing of unhealthy products. Over recent decades, the proportion of wealth and income transferred by these firms to their shareholders has increased substantially; whereas the proportion of wealth and income redistributed by these two firms to the public via income taxes has considerably decreased. Meanwhile, the distribution of soft drink consumption is becoming increasingly skewed towards population groups in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Conclusions Market power and corporate wealth and income distribution in the global soft drink market likely compound the market’s maldistribution of harms, and indirectly influence health by contributing to social and economic inequalities. Indeed, a ‘double burden of maldistribution’ pattern can be seen, wherein the wealth of the shareholders of the market’s dominant corporations, a group over-represented by a small and wealthy elite, is maximised largely at the expense of the welfare of LMICs and lower socioeconomic groups in high-income countries. If this pattern continues, the appropriate role of the global soft drink market as part of sustainable economic development will require rethinking.

Papua New Guinea agri-food trade and household consumption trends point towards dietary change and increased overweight and obesity prevalence

Background Papua New Guinea (PNG) experienced positive GDP growth at approximately 4.3% per year during the last decade. With increases in overall wealth within the country, PNG is facing a double burden of malnutrition: comparatively high child stunting rates and a growing overweight and obesity epidemic. We focus on the latter by evaluating trends in agri-food import data from 2001 to 2018 and household consumption data from 2018 and 2009/10. Results The analysis presented in this paper raises three red flags. First, international food import data suggest that the demand for ultra-processed, sugar-sweetened beverages and food have increased substantially over time in PNG. Sugar-sweetened beverages dominated the largest growth in processed food imports, increasing by 23% per capita per year between 2001 and 2018. Second, households across the country with a greater food expenditure on sugar-sweetened beverages have a higher probability of an overweight child (under 5 years old). Last, the probability of soft-drink consumption in PNG increases with greater income acquisition and improved market access. While the price of a soft drink is negatively correlated with the quantity consumed, analysis suggests that total household income has a quantitatively larger (and positive) association with soft drink consumption. Conclusions Taxing (or increasing taxes on) sugar-sweetened beverages may not be a sufficient policy mechanism to curb overconsumption of soft drinks in PNG. Education and advocacy programs should be fostered that integrate improved dietary information on packaging, as well as greater access to and understanding of nutrition and diet information of common household consumption items. While increases in household income and market access are crucial to economic growth and transformation, PNG’s economic transition must be dovetailed with programs that expand and enhance health and nutrition information and education to improve household consumption decisions and overall household wellbeing.

Barriers and facilitators to the introduction of import duties designed to prevent noncommunicable disease in Tonga: a case study

Background In Tonga, import duties were lowered on tinned fish and seafood in 2013 and raised on soft drinks, dripping and other animal fats. Additional import duties were applied to soft drinks and dripping and other fats in 2016 and duties were also applied to high fat meats, mutton flaps and turkey tails. The objective of this study was to describe barriers to and facilitators of these import duties from a policy-maker perspective. Methods A case study was conducted to analyse implementation of policies originally modelled by the Pacific Obesity Prevention in Communities project to reduce mortality in the Kingdom of Tonga. Policymakers (n = 15) from the Ministries of Revenue, Health, Finance and Labour and Commerce involved in the development and implementation of Tonga’s food-related policies participated in key-informant interviews. Results The main facilitator of import duties were strong leadership and management, cross-sector collaboration, awareness raising and advocacy, nature of the policy, and the effective use of data to model policy impacts and inform the general public. The absence of clear lines of responsibility and a decline in collaboration over time were identified as barriers to implementation of the import duties. Conclusion In a small Island state implementing import duties to prevent non-communicable disease can be straight forward providing policymakers and the community have a shared understanding of the health and economic costs of NCDs.