South Asian Entanglements

This chapter describes the intersection of Chinese, Pakistani, and Indian economic, political, and security interests in South Asia. It introduces a brief history of China’s interaction with South Asia and explains how China now perceives its economic, security, and diplomatic goals in the region. It shows how Pakistanis are divided in their perceptions of China and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and explains how the military and other establishment figures are likely to gain from closer ties, while liberals and other opposition groups stand to lose. It details how Pakistan benefits from its military ties to China, especially in the areas of nuclear weapons, missiles, and drone technologies, and how China’s diplomatic support shields Pakistan from international pressure. It evaluates that on balance, China’s deepened regional presence and economic, military, and diplomatic assistance to Pakistan will tend to raise tensions with India.

Middle Eastern Entanglements

This chapter discusses the intersection of Chinese, Iranian, Saudi (and to a lesser extent, American and Russian) interests in the Middle East. It introduces a brief history of China’s links with the Middle East and explains how Beijing’s regional role has, until recently, tended to be relatively limited. But China’s ties to the region have grown significantly, especially in terms of energy trade and investment. The chapter explores how Iranians perceive economic and strategic value in China as a means to sustain the ruling regime, resist pressure from the United States, and compete with Saudi Arabia. It explores Saudi-China ties as well, finding that the monarchy sees China as essential to its strategy for economic development. The chapter concludes that both Tehran and Riyadh will continue to court Beijing and that the Middle East is primed for greater Chinese involvement, less reform, and more geopolitical competition.

US-China Competition in Eurasia

This chapter summarizes the interplay between China and South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, then assesses the geopolitical implications for America, and offers recommendations for US policy. Marshalling evidence from previous chapters, it shows that anticipating the political consequences of China’s overseas activities in any particular instance requires an appreciation of the other state’s preexisting domestic political-economic conditions and geopolitical relationships. It finds that across Eurasia, China’s involvement tends to undercut healthy pressure for economic and political reform within states and appears to be exacerbating or rekindling tensions among them. The chapter evaluates current US policy in the context of global competition with China and identifies a range of strategies for Eurasia, including “benign neglect,” “peaceful accommodation,” “critical publicity,” “selective competition,” and “militarized competition.” To make the most of America’s limited influence, it argues that US policymakers should pursue a selective and localized strategy in Eurasia.

China and the New Geopolitics of Eurasia

This chapter introduces China’s new global initiatives like the vaunted “Belt and Road” and previews how the political and economic interests of other states in South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East tend to set the conditions for Chinese activities and shape regional outcomes. It leads with the history of China’s involvement in Pakistan’s Gwadar port. It then identifies ways in which Eurasia’s powerful and privileged groups often expect to profit from their connections to China, while others fear commercial and political losses. Similarly, it foreshadows how statesmen across Eurasia are scrambling to harness China’s energy purchases, arms sales, and infrastructure investments to outdo strategic competitors, like India and Saudi Arabia, while negotiating relations with Russia and the United States. This chapter introduces the book’s subsequent chapters on China’s Eurasian aspirations, South Asia and China, Central Asia and China, the Middle East and China, and the American policy response.

Central Asian Insecurities

This chapter discusses the intersection of Chinese, Russian, and Central Asian interests in the context of China’s expanding Eurasian presence. It introduces a brief history of China’s relations with Central Asia and Russia. It describes how China has deepened its economic ties, especially with respect to the energy (oil and gas) trade and overland transportation infrastructure. It explains how Kazakhstan’s political economy is defined by illiberal strongman rule, patronage politics, and ethnic cleavages influences, and is likely to be influenced by China’s involvement. It describes how China and Russia share similar global aims, not least in resisting aspects of US leadership, which has contributed to the unusually close ties between presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. However, it also finds that the increasing power asymmetry between China and Russia, along with Moscow’s reduced influence in Central Asia, will likely introduce tensions between them over time.

Beijing’s Global Aspirations

This chapter explains the historical wellsprings and national interests that motivate China’s increasingly ambitious global policies including the Belt and Road Initiative. It discusses how Chinese security concerns, especially those related to Xinjiang, along with broader strategic aims lead Beijing to play a greater role in continental Eurasia. There China’s involvement tends to start with economic and trade relations, but in recent years (and especially under the leadership of President Xi Jinping), China has moved from “keeping a low profile” to “striving for achievement” in ways that stray from “non-interference.” To accomplish its global aims, China is developing new tools of economic statecraft, security, and diplomacy. These are described in detail, including the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the China International Development Cooperation Agency, a modernized military with greater power projection capabilities, the port facility in Djibouti, private security contractors, the China Global Television Network, and new technologies for political repression.