EFFECT OF ADDITIONAL FOOD ON PREDATOR–PREY INTERACTIONS WITH WATER-LEVEL FLUCTUATION

Significant variations of the water-level of the lake can have a strong impact on the persistence of species. Indeed, when the water-level is low, during the autumn, the contact between the predator and the prey is more frequent, and the predation increases. Conversely, when the water-level is high, in the spring, it is more difficult for the predator to find a prey and the predation decreases. In this paper, we consider a seasonally varying predator–prey model to study the influence of water-level variations on the interaction between two species of fishes in an artificial lake. A seasonal variation of the water-level is introduced in the predation rate. The predator population is provided some additional food apart from the focal prey, and follows logistic growth in the absence of prey population. As control upon the over predation, the predator population is harvested. Sensitivity analysis shows that the biomass of predator population is highly sensitive to the additional food and water variations. In the absence of additional food, our results show bursting patterns of fishes whereas positive periodic solution arises if the additional food is available in sufficient amount. The positive periodic solution is shown to be globally stable. Higher values of water-level fluctuations induce double periodic oscillations. Our findings show that providing additional food source to the generalist predator together with water-level fluctuations exerts a strong influence on the interaction between fishes.

ROLE OF MEDIA COVERAGE IN MITIGATING AN EPIDEMIC OUTBREAK: AN OPTIMAL CONTROL MODEL

Flu is an acute respiratory infection caused by the influenza virus. The outbreak usually occurs every year in temperate region during the fall and winter seasons, but it is present year-round in tropics. Perceived risk of infection, affordability and lack of awareness among the population results in a low level of vaccination coverage. To control disease transmission and promote vaccination, public health officials use media coverage to spread awareness on vaccine safety, vaccine coverage, disease prevalence in the population through public health websites, advertisements, and other social media web pages. Media coverage acts as an incentive as it helps to decrease overall transmission potential and also at the same time increases the vaccination coverage in the population. Since the public health department has a limited budget, it needs to make optimum allocation of its effort to reduce the total cost of infection. Our paper investigates the effect of media coverage using SIR model of disease transmission. We look at three possible functional relationships — linear, exponential, and hyperbolic — the way media coverage may affect the disease transmission and vaccination rate. We derive necessary conditions of optimal solution using Optimal Control Theory and Pontryagin Maximum Principle (PMP) to minimize the total cost for infection. Analysis of our paper demonstrates that the cost of optimal management is four times less than the cost of constant control effort, and putting more effort into reducing transmission is optimal rather than an effort to increase vaccination at the beginning of the outbreak. Analysis of the role of media coverage under three different scenarios may help in formulating policies for public health programs in mitigating the influenza outbreak.

A DELAY NONAUTONOMOUS PREDATOR–PREY MODEL FOR THE EFFECTS OF FEAR, REFUGE AND HUNTING COOPERATION

Fear of predation may assert privilege to prey species by restricting their exposure to potential predators, meanwhile it can also impose costs by constraining the exploration of optimal resources. A predator–prey model with the effect of fear, refuge, and hunting cooperation has been investigated in this paper. The system’s equilibria are obtained and their local stability behavior is discussed. The existence of Hopf-bifurcation is analytically shown by taking refuge as a bifurcation parameter. There are many ecological factors which are not instantaneous processes, and so, to make the system more realistic, we incorporate three discrete time delays: in the effect of fear, refuge and hunting cooperation, and analyze the delayed system for stability and bifurcation. Moreover, for environmental fluctuations, we further modify the delayed system by incorporating seasonality in the fear, refuge and cooperation. We have analyzed the seasonally forced delayed system for the existence of a positive periodic solution. In the support of analytical results, some numerical simulations are carried out. Sensitivity analysis is used to identify parameters having crucial impacts on the ecological balance of predator–prey interactions. We find that the rate of predation, fear, and hunting cooperation destabilizes the system, whereas prey refuge stabilizes the system. Time delay in the cooperation behavior generates irregular oscillations whereas delay in refuge stabilizes an otherwise unstable system. Seasonal variations in the level of fear and refuge generate higher periodic solutions and bursting patterns, respectively, which can be replaced by simple 1-periodic solution if the cooperation and fear are also allowed to vary with time in the former and latter situations. Higher periodicity and bursting patterns are also observed due to synergistic effects of delay and seasonality. Our results indicate that the combined effects of fear, refuge and hunting cooperation play a major role in maintaining a healthy ecological environment.

MODELING THE IMPACT OF EDUCATIONAL CAMPAIGN ON THE TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF EBOLA

Disease awareness that informs the public about the severity and transmission pathways of infectious diseases such as Ebola is key to curtailing an outbreak. Public health education when available can limit the intensity and duration of an Ebola outbreak in any community if there is compliance. It is important that all population groups be informed about the methods in which Ebola is transmitted to control the disease when there is an outbreak. In this paper, we study the impact of public health education that leads to behavioral changes on the dynamics of Ebola spread. The model is formulated as a system of ordinary differential equations and incorporates direct transmission from infectious, hospitalized, and deceased individuals with Ebola. We establish the existence of a disease free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium, and investigate them for local and global stability. Model predictions show that a more informed community results in fewer cases, and thus limits the impact of an Ebola outbreak. Further, the model also predicts subsequent outbreak waves within a community in the absence of complete eradication. Lastly, the model successfully captures the dynamics of the 2014–2016 West Africa Ebola outbreak and the 2018–2020 Democratic Republic of Congo Ebola outbreak.

BIFURCATION ANALYSIS FOR A ONE PREDATOR AND TWO PREY MODEL WITH PREY-TAXIS

This paper concerns spatio-temporal pattern formation in a model for two competing prey populations with a common predator population whose movement is biased by direct prey-taxis mechanisms. By pattern formation, we mean the existence of stable, positive non-constant equilibrium states, or nontrivial stable time-periodic states. The taxis can be either repulsive or attractive and the population interaction dynamics is fairly general. Both types of pattern formation arise as one-parameter bifurcating solution branches from an unstable constant stationary state. In the absence of our taxis mechanism, the coexistence positive steady state, under suitable conditions, is locally asymptotically stable. In the presence of a sufficiently strong repulsive prey defense, pattern formation will develop. However, in the attractive taxis case, the attraction needs to be sufficiently weak for pattern formation to develop. Our method is an application of the Crandall–Rabinowitz and the Hopf bifurcation theories. We establish the existence of both types of branches and develop expressions for determining their stability.